is it as bad as this movie? - Contagion (2011) Discussion

[–] C5noone (34) 5 years ago

short answer. No.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Since Jan 1, 150k cases and 5k deaths. most of the deaths have been older people with other health issues.

"Don't Panic"

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[–] Kowalski (75523) 5 years ago

TRUTH.

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[–] mobocracy (891) 5 years ago

Longer answer: maybe. 6 days later we're at 10.4k deaths.

At this growth rate, by the end of March we could be at 30k deaths. 125k by mid-April, 518k by the end of April.

If it holds up (and I'm not sure it will), the death rate would hit 1 million by May 7, and 10 million by the end of May.

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[–] [deleted] 5 years ago

"maybe" is the most honest answer right now. Nobody knows.

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[–] GotWood84 (384) 5 years ago

You have the numbers exploding in April and May. Can you share why? Are you using a specific formula?

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[–] footlegger (1462) 5 years ago

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs

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[–] GotWood84 (384) 5 years ago

Thanks foot.

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[–] maximmm (3335) 5 years ago

It doesn't look like we'll get to those numbers in April :(

Keep in mind, 80 thousand people died from the common flu last year in the USA. The current numbers are pretty damn disappointing, given all the hype this covid19 is getting.

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[–] GotWood84 (384) 5 years ago

It's just getting worse.

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[–] spacefink (92) 5 years ago

This is the only response that aged well in this thread :( We've surpassed the Vietnam war in deaths.

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[–] JohnnyDoe (1882) 5 years ago

In Nam young and healthy males died, this time around old and sickly people get a nudge. People die every day,every year:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

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[–] spacefink (92) 5 years ago

True that those with pre-existing conditions are the most vulnerable, but there are healthy people dying as well. This virus doesn't really seem to discriminate, that's what makes it so unpredictable.

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[–] JohnnyDoe (1882) 5 years ago

It does discriminate when it comes to dying, the average age is something like 80

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[–] spacefink (92) 4 years ago

Lots of the data has been preliminary though...it's safer to assume that anyone can be a risk than just one particular group, especially since so many Americans are in piss poor shape.

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[–] abigolcwock (517) 5 years ago

If you die from this you're basically already useless (old people and such) or are extremely unlucky. So if you're not a useless person, then imagine it as winning the lottery but you die if you win (it ain't gonna happen).

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[–] MoviesSuck (964) 5 years ago

Lol, I love this response.

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[–] [deleted] 5 years ago

I'd be careful about who you call useless. Younger people are dying also.

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[–] Jinx (3722) 5 years ago

You are absolutely disgusting. Saying that the elderly is useless. If you live long enough, I hope this haunts you.

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[–] abigolcwock (517) 5 years ago

This comment I made on a forum? I will have forgotten about it in a year, in fact, I had already forgotten about it until you replied to it.

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[–] Jinx (3722) 5 years ago

Of course you did.

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[–] tom8 (3119) 5 years ago

true, karma is a bitch......... that guy could easily get it and die

young folks are dying now as well.

china fucked us good this time, again!

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[–] Jinx (3722) 5 years ago

Yeah . . .China meant for thousands of people to contract a virus and die, then give it to the rest of the planet.

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[–] tom8 (3119) 5 years ago

for them, human and animal life is worthless

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3zng57SUqY&t=

"food Market"

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[–] BreakbeatSavant (413) 5 years ago

So you're a vegan?

Not sure how your video supports your implicitly racist idea that Chinese view human life as worthless.

But then again, racists aren't bright. Your statement reaffirms the rule.

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[–] tom8 (3119) 5 years ago

vegan yes, racist no....... the chinese are soulless animal abusers. millions of videos on youtube and other places and reports, back up that fact.

And they are the cause of this pandemic and suffering and death around the world.

another fact, it's the low IQ morons like you, that throw the word racist around until it has no meaning anymore, when the truth becomes too much for them to handle and cope with.

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[–] BreakbeatSavant (413) 5 years ago

"chinese are soulless animal abusers"

I call BS on your claimed veganism. If you really were a vegan you'd be aware of the barbarity of factory farming in the US makes any claim of "animal abuse" just as valid for Americans. You can find many youtube videos exposing the cruelty on American factory farms if you bothered to look.

That makes you a fake vegan and a racist.

"And they are the cause of this pandemic and suffering and death around the world."

Then applying your logic, Americans are the cause of last pandemic since the Spanish Flu of 1918 originated in Haskell County, Kansas. Guess how? In one of those unsanitary, barbarous factory farms. This led to 50 million deaths worldwide, so by that score Americans have an insurmountable lead in the suffering and kill count.

Even worse, the Spanish Flu disproportionately afflicted the young and healthy.

Like I said, racists aren't bright. Your colossal hypocrisy, lack of self awareness, and racist zeal to fault an ethnicity for a pandemic proves my point.

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[–] tom8 (3119) 5 years ago

You have nothing. I have the truth.
The Chinese are known animal abusers, and they don't care about human rights either. They are communists and soulless.

Dinner is served, turtle soup

https://www.worldstarhiphop.com/videos/video.php?v=wshh096w8O25pt97LHw2

And the chinese was also responsible for the black plague that killed 200+ million people in 1347-1351.

The plague traveled from China to Italy and from there it spread all over europe. Half of Europe died.

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[–] BreakbeatSavant (413) 5 years ago

So USA is "responsible" for the 50 million deaths from Spanish Flu then?

And what do you say to those that point to American factory farms as proof Americans are "soulless animal abusers"? Like I said, you should youtube it. You'll find practices every bit as cruel as whatever you think happens in China.

The southern regions of China historically suffered from massive famine from drought, forcing them to make delicacies out of any meat that was available and turning it into cultural tradition. Plenty of examples of American frontiersmen resorting to cannibalism when they ran out of food. When people are hungry, they find ways to eat. Doesn't matter what color you are genius.

God the stupid in you is epic. You should have stayed in school.

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[–] tom8 (3119) 5 years ago

I am not American.

not going to respond anymore to a person that have apologies ready for people that abuse and torture innocent animals, eat them alive and furthermore spread deadly diseases that will kill millions and at the same time bring the whole world to a complete halt.

You must be chinese and feel hurt that the truth now have been exposed.

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[–] BreakbeatSavant (413) 5 years ago

Of course you're American, as am I. I've seen enough of your toxic posts in the politics forum to know you're a Trump supporter.

What's funny is to watch you lie about your nationality to deflect from your own hypocrisy.

But like I said, you're clearly a racist trying to cloak your racism behind the excuse of animal cruelty or else you'd appropriately direct your venom at the factory farms in this country where your activism could actually make a difference.

That's because you're no vegan, all you're interested in is blaming the Chinese for a pandemic as if they could somehow be responsible. Any epidemiologist would laugh in your face and explain how you're full of it. You're too stupid to even understand how nakedly transparent your racism is.

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[–] tom8 (3119) 5 years ago

Facts:

The first known case was reported at the wuhan wet market

where animals are killed while people watch......... snakes , bats etc

Fact, i don't' eat meat, i am not american.
Fact, you are american, one of the truly fucking stupid ones. And you spread lies and accuses me of doing just that.

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[–] tom8 (3119) 5 years ago

did swineflu, birdflu, the black plague, covid-19, come from the united states? No, it came from asia.

dispute that you dumb american, who apparently hates your own country. If i was american i would be embarrassed on behalf of my country.

any sane americans here, please chime in.

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[–] LiquidOcelot (2399) 5 years ago

You got owned you racist douchebag.

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[–] tom8 (3119) 5 years ago

how is that? i don't eat meat and i am not american.

that other poster just said i was, that poster is a moron and a liar.

and the chinese are truly savages, they have abused and tortured animals long before this virus outbreak.

you are in fact the true low IQ douchebag, believing the lies.

here is a normal day in china

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTRJqULFVwk

Taxi driver removes a beagle from the front bumper and abandons it

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[–] Jinx (3722) 5 years ago

What?! Accusing others of believing human life to be worthless while ‘you’ are stating that the Chinese are worthless. . .do you have no self awareness?

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[–] tom8 (3119) 5 years ago

you like animal abusers and diseases spreaders?

you probably wont love them as much when you or a family member gets this virus.

the truth hurts.

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[–] Jinx (3722) 5 years ago

You are so dumb, I don't know where to start. Are you kidding me? Have to be.

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[–] BreakbeatSavant (413) 5 years ago

Like I was saying, racists are never bright. Dude can't even spell and use proper punctuation. His posts prove the rule.

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[–] Jinx (3722) 5 years ago

I loved your eloquent responses. I am not good at counter arguments, mostly because I came from a religious background and know how futile it is to argue with people who are malevolent and terrified of being wrong.

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[–] BreakbeatSavant (413) 5 years ago

I envy your wisdom. It sounds like you've saved yourself a lot of time and effort I've wasted arguing in vain with his ilk. :(

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[–] Jinx (3722) 5 years ago

Oh no, don’t say that, maybe they did not affect Tom but it’s invaluable to those who will come across it and be educated by reading it. I just have a defeatist attitude when it comes to people like this. Bitter experience has also taught me that people like Tom would immediately discredit anything I’d have to say the minute they found out I’m female.

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[–] tom8 (3119) 5 years ago

oh, playing the feminist card LOL

you american women love that.

It is always great to use when ones arguments fail.

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[–] Jinx (3722) 5 years ago

You are endlessly entertaining! Please don’t stop.

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[–] tom8 (3119) 5 years ago

"I came from a religious background"

"and know how futile it is to argue with people who are malevolent and terrified of being wrong."

LOL, like yourself!

My claims are rooted in facts, your facts are apparently rooted in religion.
I think most people here know who to believe.
Thanks for telling us.

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[–] Jinx (3722) 5 years ago

You don’t even understand that I was conveying that I’m not religious . . .most people would have gathered that.

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[–] tom8 (3119) 5 years ago

"I don't know where to start"

of course not, the truth hurts, and you have no answer to it

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[–] footlegger (1462) 5 years ago

Yes it is - even with an optimistic 1% death rate (it's probably 3%), it will bring the economy to a screeching halt, because it spreads so fast, it disables the workforce that keeps the economy afloat. The recession will kill a lot more people than the virus will.
Also, everything points out that the immunity is not lasting and the virus will come back in waves, just like the regular flu does, so lots of people will be infected again and again until the damage to their lungs kills them.

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[–] mrbnk (419) 5 years ago

I think you are reading this right. Even today, we are witnessing the massive financial effects of the outbreak. Of course, it's not the apocalypse, but the disruption of workforce and schools and what have you will have some implications beyond numbers of people who are infected.

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[–] footlegger (1462) 5 years ago

Now they are speaking of 8% death rate in Italy.

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[–] movieace11 (1338) 5 years ago

8% of confirmed cases. Of all infected people? Maybe 1,5 %. (Which is bad enough.)

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[–] footlegger (1462) 5 years ago

It's close to 10% now. This turned into a disaster.

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[–] BreakbeatSavant (413) 5 years ago

12.5% mortality rate in Italy as of this posting.

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[–] maximmm (3335) 5 years ago

The workforce wouldn't be anymore disabled than it would have been from the common flu. What's causing the economic crisis is not the flu, but the actions undertaken by most governments of the world. I'm now reading that food shortage is coming as well.

I feel like humanity cut its finger, but rather than putting a plaster on it, it is opting to amputate the whole goddamn arm.

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[–] footlegger (1462) 5 years ago

To get over the common cold or flu, you only need about 7 days, and you usually get well without any consequences.
This thing puts you out for a whole month, and if you are lucky and it doesn't kill you, it will leave scarring in your lung tissue, so when it comes back (there is no permanent immunity) its chances of killing you are way higher the second time, and almost certain the third time you get it.

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[–] L1 (1316) 5 years ago

Everyone should self quarantine.

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[–] footlegger (1462) 5 years ago

The problem is, in the US they need to work in order to be able to sustain themselves. That's why many sick people will still go to work and spread the disease further.

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[–] L1 (1316) 5 years ago

They look like overreactions because you weren't where you were where you were where you thought you were yesterday.

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[–] JohnnyDoe (1882) 5 years ago

Someone needs to work, in order to be able to sustain anyone, anywhere and everywhere.

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[–] footlegger (1462) 5 years ago

There should be reserves to sustain the society despite 70% of it being sick. It's called social safety net for a reason.

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[–] AmeriGirl26 (14381) 5 years ago

You're not dumb. This disease is nowhere near as bad as the one in the movie. In the story, it was killing millions of people right and left, often within 24 hours of infection, and being young and healthy did not save you. They even showed in the movie where it originally came from. This actual virus has a 50% survival rate, and the only people who have died are those who either were elderly, or had a compromised immune system to start with.

You're right, the media is making this way worse than it actually is, and honestly, I really think some of them should be prosecuted for causing so much trouble.

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[–] Kurt (189) 5 years ago

That's one of the problems with this movie as well as "Outbreak". They use a fast acting virus for cinematic purposes, but a fast acting virus is one which is easy to contain, especially if it has a high mortality rate. This real world virus is the opposite - it is not very deadly, it has a (relatively) long incubation period and it is very contagious. The latter is what matters most.
In addition, it can be carried by younger people who often have almost no symptoms, and thereby it is easily carried among other people. It is mostly deadly for people who are already weak, especially older people. However, also some supposedly healthy people have died, and for some reason people who smoke are sometimes more affected as well.

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[–] maximmm (3335) 5 years ago

Actually, you are wrong about the last bit Current smokers are 7-8 times less likely to get infected than a non-smoker. However, if they do get infected, they are twice as likely to end up in ICU than a completely healthy person (keep in mind - people with other pre-existing conditions are anywhere from 10-30 times more likely to end up in ICU).

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[–] Kurt (189) 5 years ago

I don't know about that, but I did write "more affected" not "more infected".

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[–] Rorikon (17855) 5 years ago

So the whole economy has to suffer for older people with health relying issues... okay boomer.

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[–] yatzo376 (7717) 5 years ago

I'm ready for Planet of the Apes time!

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[–] bozo_500 (13105) 5 years ago

Funny I meant the original movie, but actually I just realised the new(ish) Apes movies are pretty similar to what's happening (i.e. the end of 'Rise' with the virus spreading)

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[–] yatzo376 (7717) 5 years ago

I meant the original also

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[–] DarkKnight (262) 5 years ago

Not even close. The Flu virus kills 30000-50000 people each year, and this virus has killed 5,000 people in just a few months.

This virus is actually quite tame compared to other pandemics throughout history. The Black Plague killed 200 million during the 13th century, and The Spanish Flu killed 100+ million plus back in 1918.

A few thousand dead isn't even a drop in the bucket considering the world's population is 6 billion+.

More people die in car wrecks each day around the world than this virus has killed in 3 months. Not to mention millions of deaths each year due to obesity, diabetes, cancer ect.......

It's a bit of overreaction from the media that's causing panic I'd say. It's OK to take necessary precautions, but buying 6 months supply of toilet paper is ridiculous.

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[–] Filmtenk2 (4039) 5 years ago

I think you're off with that 100 million from the Spanish Flu it's more like 20-50 million worldwide.

You guys shouldn't dismiss this thing as media induced hysteria. The worst case scenario projections from the WHO for America alone is 1.7 million dead if we do nothing. Thankfully we are taking preventative measures like cancelling everything, social distancing, closing restaurants. The question is will it be enough and did we do it in time?

Italy is nearing 2k dead, they may be over that by now. Yes it's much better to be young and healthy but you're not immune. Young people have died from this in the past 3 months like the 34 yo doctor in China and others. If we're lucky it won't be as bad as it could be, or as bad as the media is making it out to be. Do worry about it. Wash your hands with soap and wàrm to hot water every time you leave home, come back home and as much as possible in between. Any time you're in a public place and you touch a table or railing or an elevator button wash or sanitize. Make liars out of the media and do the things the doctors are recommending for people of all ages.

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[–] mobocracy (891) 5 years ago

It seems to spread incredibly easily. Honestly, our only real hope at this point is that two things are true:

* Incredibly easy spread
* Most cases are asymptomatic, or nearly so

We might get to the point fairly quickly where so much of the population has had the virus that its spread becomes limited by herd immunity and a shortage of new hosts and it burns out. The questions will then center around duration of acquired immunity and mutation.

It's hard to argue against "flattening the curve" strategies, but lengthening the outbreak means shrinking the pool of ever-infecteds and possibly creating a situation where you end up with mutation and a second wave of infections of people who never acquired immunity. It's not impossible that even with mutation that people who had the virus have some limited immunity to mutated versions of it and experience fewer symptoms and severe illness.

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[–] BreakbeatSavant (413) 5 years ago

Total deaths are up to almost 8000 according to the live realtime coronavirus tracker from Johns Hopkins.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

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[–] AndyKing1967 (38076) 5 years ago

You've only bought 6 months supply of toilet paper?

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