I don't think polling is as accurate as it once used to be. In this era that has become so divisive since Trump, folks simply don't like to answer these questions any longer about their preferred candidates. That doesn't mean they are not going to come out in droves to vote for Kamala Harris, though. This is a constituency that has an extreme thrist for the notion of turning the page away from the past. We saw it with Hillary Clinton, and we saw it more recently with Trump and now Biden. By the time Kamala Harris has her running mate pick in the newscycle, her glorious convention less than a month away which is going to be quite optimistic (and of high production value), and then prosecutorial debates against convicted felon, DJT, she will be embraced by many, young and old, and people might even be more vocal about this support outside of the ballot booth.
In addition, conservative voters who do like to maintain their continuity with the past (and actually want to answer survey questions) are much more likely to be outspoken about their love of Trump, the cult icon. What does this mean? It means the polls need to be taken with a grain of salt. As a Democrat, I'm ecstatic about Harris being seen as the underdog. It will only help her get-out-the-vote effort in the end.
MAGA Republicans are likely to take issue with what I said above about Trump causing the division, and I'm old enough to remember how bitter and violent they were about Barack Obama's two terms. It's true. But is it right?! Was President Obama a divisive figure, or was he actually some imaginary boogeyman that they conjured up but never really got to know? They don't pay attention. The man was immaculate, eloquent, inspirational. He was family and community-oriented, and nearly scandal-free. His cabinet was diverse on both a personal and ideological level which indicates that he valued alternative opinions to his own. There was even a book on it called Team of Rivals!
Ask yourself this, all. How is it possible that President Obama could be divisive enough that a candidate would come along and rise to prominence by challenging Obama's citizenship and origin of birth? Nobody in 2012 or 2016 could possibly say that they were worse off than they were in 2008 in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis and housing market collapse. Why the hate!? For the most rabid of MAGA deplorables, it definitely had something to do with race. That's really all there is to it, and that's despicable. This was the genesis of identity politics. Most Democrats, except the very young and confused nowadays, are more than willing to judge a person by the content of their character and not the color of their skin, but the Right are going to project their biases onto their opponents.
I don't believe most voters are racist—not even those on the Trump team. I'm going to go out on a limb and say there was something else to it as well. It's quite sad. The backlash to Trump after Obama was because when highly educated, distinguished statesmen with great analytical skill and oratory chops, as Obama had, are leaders, dumb folks who don't understand them think they're being talked down to... or otherwise, receive it as effeminite and weak as a defense mechanism. He and many prominent Democrats bear no ill will, and they are certainly confident, assertive and tough, but they are simply using their intellect in the way that makes sense to them in positions of such responsibility.
Trump does indeed have "political chops" but something is lost when his method of success as a candidate (dumbing it down) is consistently applied to governing strategy, and it's had a detrimential effect on an engaged citizenry as well.
Take this for example. I can't claim credit for it. Someone on Youtube analyzed Trump's verbiage at recent rallies and the NABJ conference.
bad/badly 10 times
destroying 8 times
fight/fought 7 times
worst 7 times
horrible 6 times
rude 4 times
shooting/shot 4 times
death 4 times
attack 4 times
invading/invasion 4 times
nasty 3 times
hostile 3 times
terrible 3 times
wrong 3 times
disaster 3 times
illegal 3 times
didn’t look good to me 3 times
didn't like it 2 times
disgrace 2 times
He also used the words below at least once:
killing
dangerous
evil
troubled
mess
fake news
false
devastating
crashed
execute
viciously
vengeance
hatred
Win elections or no, this is the language trending towards Idiocracy as seen in the funny film from 2006 by Mike Judge. This is where the damage is done on the American psyche. Bernie Sanders was right when he said this bombastic talk is unnecessary. "Politics and government is SUPPOSED to be boring."
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