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DirtyDozen's Replies
Yikes. Queen, I thought you were more knowledgeable about the Box Office. What happened here?
What ' historical precedent' are you pointing to? You need to provide more information in the opening post or at the very least show how you are breaking down the weekend dailies and what kind of drops you are expecting.
These is the range extrapolated based on the preview/OW ratio of other CBMs for 3-Day.
Suicide Squad - 164M
Civil War - 181M
Justice League - 182M
Spider Man Homecoming - 191M
Thor Ragnarok - 213M
Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - 217M
Doctor Strange - 228M
Logan - 234M
Wonder Woman - 237M
Deadpool - 263M
We know due to WOM and presales that are spread throughout the week, that it won't collapse as bad as Suicide Squad. Nor will it go as crazily high as the top range since it's previews are way higher and the ceiling is only so high. The safest bet is probably 180M+/CW opening weekend since it's Sunday is going to be inflated by the holiday, pre-sales are spread out throughout the weekend, it's an 'origin' movie hence it won't require having seen as many Marvel movies as it did for CW and that it's seen as a 'cultural movement'. It's getting crazy exposure atm from the media.
Honestly Queen you had weeks to downplay the box office for Black Panther leading into the previews but you choose to do so when it already started breaking records? These next few weeks are unfortunately going to be a rough time for your predictions.
These is the range extrapolated based on the preview/OW ratio of other CBMs for 3-Day.
Suicide Squad - 164M
Civil War - 181M
Justice League - 182M
Spider Man Homecoming - 191M
Thor Ragnarok - 213M
Guardians of the Galaxy 2 - 217M
Doctor Strange - 228M
Logan - 234M
Wonder Woman - 237M
Deadpool - 263M
Won't go as high or as low as that range but you can see where the range is coming from.
Yup, the deal is definitely going to happen and Phase 4 and beyond is going to be pretty crazy. It'll be really interesting to see how Kevin Feige integrates mutants into the MCU and we'll finally see the Fantastic Four in all their glory. Exciting times ahead!
It's all about those juicy legs. Actuals went up slightly to $18,452,315 just as I predicted :D
The holiday season is always about them legs so it's no surprise compared to a big summer animated movie, especially a good film like The Secret Life of Pets that had a great concept and very accessible to families. The thing about Pixar/WDAS releases is that they're so staggered, so we never really get the full picture until months later. It's doing very well in all the markets released so far tho!
You gotta be more optimistic Queen! Coco is doing gangbusters and it's going to be a fun ride :)
I quite liked Sing. Not surprised to see it connect with the GA and do so well given Illumnation's track record. It does show that 2 huge animations can co-exist and still make plenty of money :)
What's your opening and final total prediction for Jumanji? I'm a big fan of the Robin William's version so I think this looks terrible but if it connects then best case scenario that I can see is $45M opening with $160M finish. It'd be nice if Sony could finish closer to $1B domestically.
Oh naw I honestly think it will get there quite comfortably to be honest. The reason I use the term 'breeze' is because $200M is definitely the minimum. Sorry, I meant to say it'll beat Moana easily internationally, not domestically. My actual prediction on where Moana lands is around $230M, even though it's holding better than Moana at the moment. I still see the range being between $200-$250M domestically like I stated in the OP.
Reasons for the range using Tangled and Moana totals. Tangled finished with $200M and is currently trailing Coco by $14M. It faced competition in The Chronicles of Narnia:The Voyage of the Dawn Treader ($104M), Yogi Bear ($100M) and Gulliver's Travels ($42M).
Moana finished with $248M and is currently ahead of Coco by $10M and faced competition in the juggernaut
Sing ($270M).
I only expect $100-$130M from Ferdinand(general Blue Sky Studio film range) and $80M-$90M from Jumanji(I smell a flop even though Sony needs every hit they can). So less competition but struggles to make $200M? I can't see it :D
It actually went up with actuals and did -45.8% and $27,533,304 which means the domestic total is going even better than expected :D $200M will be a breeze no doubt! It's more along the lines of how much will it beat Moana's since it's weekend drops are better at the moment and won't have a heavy hitter like 'Sing' to contend with.
It only cost $175M to make and in the end will probably make at least $800M if things pan out as it is, which is pretty fantastic when all said and done. Disney haven't changed their strategy of releasing big budgeted animations because they don't need to, since they make huge money barring a few disappointments.
Disney are going to dominate the other studios until at least 2020 when we'll find out more release dates. I'm more concerned how the other studios will be able to get anywhere near them since the deal to acquire Fox Studio's will land them the Avatar franchise and they'll naturally work that into the rotation later on, along with the new X-Men/FF4 assets and Indiana Jones coming back. Now that's a scary thought indeed.
It apparently cost as low as 175M so it should be very profitable in the end! The WOM is supposedly through the roof in China so I'm expecting big things also. We won't know the whole picture until 16th March 2018 when it finishes releasing in Japan :)