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Moana vs. Sing vs. Trolls. Which will win the box-office?

posted 8 years ago by QueenFanUSA
108 replies | jump to latest

Three animated musicals released within the holiday months of November-December. If you had to bet money, how would you predict their box-office rank?

I'll go first.

1. Sing-Universal has already screened this in a couple of different events and the reaction has been off the charts. Illumination's red-hot streak looks to even intesify.

2. Moana and Trolls- this could go either way. Moana is definitely more expensive, but Disney has proven how they can continuously make expensive films that underperform. Once again they have Thanksgiving week and that was avwipeout last year with their Pixar release The Good Dinosaur.

The much-cheaper DreamWorks Trolls is the darkhorse that may surprise. It's exactly the type of irreverent film that audiences can't seem to get enough of these days...plus it's a musical too?

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

P.S.- It looks like Universal/Illumination will absolutely own next summer with Despicable Me 3. It very well may do what Finding Dort was SUPPOSED to do but fell well short...take the crown of top animated world-wide crown from Frozen.

[–] TutuAnimationPrincess 8 years ago

I don't really care. Many of the best animated films ever made never made big bank at the box office but that doesn't make them any lesser for that. Animation respect isn't achieved by caring about numbers, it's about the love and understanding of the art form.

"If life is getting you down and needs uplifting, then please come dance with me!"

[–] OhNooos 8 years ago

I agree, Harushi. The numbers only matter to the extent that the studios aren't losing money. If they turn a profit, they're willing to take a chance on more films, which means a win for all of us.

QFUSA - what is the budget for Moana? I couldn't find it on its IMDB page. If Trolls is only $120 million, it will be one of the less expensive films made at DW to date. Yet, one of the artists working on it has described it as very beautiful and "super cute".

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

I've heard that Moana is close to 200 million. The floor for WDAS is 150 million.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Oh noooos...once again Illumination is in the golden spot with a trim 75 million budget and incredible buzz. Disney is in the most vulnerable spot with the most expensive budget and coming off a symmer where their brand seems to be waning. Alice 2...The BFG...Pete's Dragon...all tanked hard...yikes!

[–] TutuAnimationPrincess 8 years ago

How about putting stock in what will really matter. Obviously I can't predict the future, but I gather that no matter the box office Moana will most likely be the film to be remembered for years to come. Trolls or Sing could surprise, but right now I see nothing about them that says they'll be anything more than flash in the pan successes at best.

"If life is getting you down and needs uplifting, then please come dance with me!"

[–] 8 years ago

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[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Trolls or Sing could surprise, but right now I see nothing about them that says they'll be anything more than flash in the pan successes at best.

Sing is on track to make several hundred million more than Moana at the worldwide box-office.

[–] OhNooos 8 years ago

Well, that is scary. Looking at the financial news, Disney beat the projected earnings for the 3rd quarter by $.01 per share. They're down some from previous quarters, but the report sounded very positive. They credited the performances of Captain America and Finding Dory. I think all is well in their world.

That is quite a budget for Moana! Based on the trailers, it looks like the colors will be magnificent!

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

It does look magnificent. I'm afraid it doesn't fit the zeitgeist if the moment, though. I'm no fan of Illumination, but dammit if they don't know how to tap right into it. Trolls seems to fit into that Illumination pocket perfectly.

[–] number1212 8 years ago

My guess:
1. Moana :$275 mil (part way between Tangled and Frozen).
2. Sing: $255 mil (closer to The Lorax than SLoP)
3. Trolls: $135 mil

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Ohh...those are good, detailed predictions number 1212!

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

number 1212 gave Moana an ever-so-slight edge over Sing. That's interesting considering the early buzz surrounding Sing.

Anyone else have a prediction on how these three films will perform.

Anyone else think his prediction for Trolls is too low or about right?

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

My guess:
1. Moana :$275 mil (part way between Tangled and Frozen).
2. Sing: $255 mil (closer to The Lorax than SLoP)
3. Trolls: $135 mil

Well...you got kinda close on Trolls, I guess.

[–] Hold_the_door 8 years ago

Moana obviously. It’s trending a lot on social media and many people are excited to see it. Trolls might flop actually while Sing could perform like The Lorax. It’s opening on a very competitive weekend.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

"Obviously", huh? Illumination's track record be damned, I guess

[–] Gamera623 8 years ago

I though Moana Obviously is well. I thought you were trying to be funny when I read your thread title, then read your post and realized you were serious.

Trolls look like its going to do as well as The Smurf or Chipmunk Movies or Storks.
And I guess my own bias kicked in when I saw that Sing was about American Idol shows and its full of current pop hits. I immediately just wrote it off as garbage. And Illumination I don't see as a good track record. They made Despicable Me and Minion movies...but outside of those are forgettable movies like Hop, Lorax and Secret Life of Pets.

After reading your post I need to realize that people may actually want to see Sing (shudder)....but Moana will still blow it away.
Trolls will be a blip and will be gone and forgotten. It will make profit. It wont bomb, but no one will care in a month.

Have you ever noticed that the people who say "DC is for adults and Marvel is for kids", are kids?

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

The Secret Life of Pets is one of the biggest animated films of all time, unfortunately.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Illumination is currently the most successful animation studio in thw world with their original films and their sequels. Factor in their moderate budgets and they are also the most profitable.

[–] 8 years ago

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[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Moana obviously. It’s trending a lot on social media and many people are excited to see it. Trolls might flop actually while Sing could perform like The Lorax. It’s opening on a very competitive weekend.

Yes... obviously.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Wow...that's low for an Illumination film, dafini!

Only 100 million for Trolls? Wow.

[–] 8 years ago

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[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Are you factoring in how Sing will be released a week before Christmas and how for two weeks every day is like a Saturday at the box office and an an Illumination film won't rise above $200 million?

[–] 8 years ago

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[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Keep laughing, Dafini, the day of reckoningi is nigh,

[–] 8 years ago

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[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Tracking is lagging behind the full impact of the good reviews.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Trolls is currently 87% in RT.

Once again, being an animated musical that looks like audiences will embrace just a couple of weeks before Moana is released is not good news for Moana's prospects.

[–] x-Joby-Dimms 8 years ago

Who cares? All three will pay the critics to give decent "reviews" and overshadow actual Oscar-worthy films. Disgusting if you ask me.

Christian Bale visited sick kids. Atheist Bale didn't.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Oh my...rave reviews for Trolls and industry buzz that is infectious and a sure-fire blockbuster.

Looks like 2 or 3 mocking posters may need to prepare to eat crow.

[–] number1212 8 years ago

I still highly doubt that Trolls will make more than Moana. Disney is in a hot streak now, so $250 mil seems to be the absolute minimum. So far no Dreamworks movie other than the Shrek franchise made it that high and there is nothing about Trolls that makes me think it is going to break the trend. I think Home type numbers are the best case scenario.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Well-recieved animated musicals are different and this is a first for DreamWorks. The priblem is that it may sap the market for that type of film preceding Moana so closely.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Disney is in a hot streak now, so $250 mil seems to be the absolute minimum.

You mean...maximum right?

[–] grebeigna 8 years ago

As I said it here http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3521164/board/thread/262563347
I think it will be
1 Moana
2 Sing
3 Trolls

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

@grebeina

Still have Trolls in last place even with 87% on RT and rapidly building buzz?!?!?!

Interesting.

[–] OhNooos 8 years ago

My guess is that the buzz for Trolls will die down when Moana comes along.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Well...you would think so...but an infectious animated musical usually has long legs and usually has very low drops by week 3 due to WOM.

That's very worrisome for Moana also being an animated musical following so closely in Trolls wake. Also, we already know the critical and audience reaction from different points on the globe have been very positive for Trolls. Moana is still a mystery at this point.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

One interesting thing about this thread and the subject of this holiday season's 3 animated musicalsis not only how weakly so many think Trolls will perform but also those that have submitted their guesstimates for Sing seem to think that it will be their lowest grosser since Despicable Me started their hot streak back in 2010. Really? An Illumination film opening shortly before Christmas and having a 2 week run with schools out is going to gross less than the original Despicable Me?

Speaking of "hot streaks", there is no animation studio on the planet hotter than Illumination right now...and they produce their films at nearly 1/3 the cost of WDAS or Pixar.

One thing is for certain, that there is bound to be cannibalization for the "animated musical" genre this holiday season and the film in the most precarious position is Moana simply for the fact that it is, by far, the most expensive film.

[–] 8 years ago

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[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Trolls is killing it overseas with already 62 million in the bank.

[–] number1212 8 years ago

Yeah. Boxoffice.com is predicting a 115 mil total for Sing.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

It will easily make that in it's first week.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

I don't see your concern about Illumination dominating the animated market? Disney is still the king of animated movies in general, and especially animated musicals. They hold pretty much every box office record related to animated movies. I don't see that changing. Moana will easily outperform Sing and Trolls.

[–] number1212 8 years ago

The Lorax and the first Despicable Me didn't. Although I think they are really lowballing it, I don't think Sing is going to be a license to print money.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Yeah. Boxoffice.com is predicting a 115 mil total for Sing.

So much for "Boxoffice.com", eh?