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Moana vs. Sing vs. Trolls. Which will win the box-office?

posted 8 years ago by QueenFanUSA
108 replies | jump to latest

Three animated musicals released within the holiday months of November-December. If you had to bet money, how would you predict their box-office rank?

I'll go first.

1. Sing-Universal has already screened this in a couple of different events and the reaction has been off the charts. Illumination's red-hot streak looks to even intesify.

2. Moana and Trolls- this could go either way. Moana is definitely more expensive, but Disney has proven how they can continuously make expensive films that underperform. Once again they have Thanksgiving week and that was avwipeout last year with their Pixar release The Good Dinosaur.

The much-cheaper DreamWorks Trolls is the darkhorse that may surprise. It's exactly the type of irreverent film that audiences can't seem to get enough of these days...plus it's a musical too?

[–] 8 years ago

[deleted]

[–] !!!deleted!!! (69989714) 8 years ago

Looks like OP may be right after all.

Though Moana's still a hit.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Looks like OP may be right after all.

Yes...OP was. It's actually turning out to be a bigger blowout than I had originally thought, unfortunately.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

I'm interested in hearing some feedback from the posters on this thread. Many of the posters had their posts deleted and I can't remember who they were. Many of the deleted posters said that this was a "joke" thread and that Moana ws going to "blow away" these two other films. Well...I guess it blew away Trolls but it's apparent that Sing will blow them all away. So many major markets left to open for it...$800 million looks like the floor. Moana wil be lucky to hit $600 million and that is contingent on it being a big hit in South Korea and Japan.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Hello?

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

I'll admit I underestimated Sing, however I still don't see it going as high as you're saying. I guess time will tell, though. However, it's also clear that most of your estimates on Moana after it released have been blown out of the water, as you claimed it might have a hard time reaching $200-210M domestic, while it's at $225M and hasn't had a day below $1M yet.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

However, it's also clear that most of your estimates on Moana after it released have been blown out of the water, as you claimed it might have a hard time reaching $200-210M domestic, while it's at $225M and hasn't had a day below $1M yet.

Until today...under half a million. I wouldn't say my estimates have been "blown out of the water". It lookas like it may crawl to $235-240 million. Yes, I undershot but not by an ocean(no pun intended).😉

By the way...I always wanted to be wrong in my predictions. International is still very mediocre, though. We'll see how South Korea and Japan do but I honestly don't tink either of them are going to be anything to write home about.

[–] A-Rey-of-Light 8 years ago

lookas like it may crawl to $235-240 million.

You DO realise that next weekend is the MLK weekend, and that a Sing-A-Long version is coming on the 27th?

Galaxy's princess
Her mother, singer in rain
Unite in heaven

[–] A-Rey-of-Light 8 years ago

International is still very mediocre, though. We'll see how South Korea and Japan do but I honestly don't tink either of them are going to be anything to write home about.

Apart from Brazil, it has about $50 million or more left to earn from its international markets for around $270-285 million. My predictions for its remaining markets are:

Japan: $60 million
South Korea: $10-15 million
Brazil: $30-35 million
Hong Kong: $2.5-3 million
Taiwan: $2-3 million
Other markets: $15-20 million

For a total of: $390-421 million. This seems to be the upper limit for Moana overseas. Of course, it could only do $350 million overseas, but it'll still achieve $600 million worldwide.

Galaxy's princess
Her mother, singer in rain
Unite in heaven

[–] number1212 8 years ago

Here are my thoughts: To believe that Trolls would beat Moana is absolutely insane. There was nothing about Trolls to suggest that it would be a Shrek sized hit. I knew Sing had a chance of beating Moana, but I also knew that Moana wasn't going to be beaten to death. To say that Moana isn't a hit because it didn't make as much as Sing is like saying Arnold Schwrtzenegger is short because he isn't as tall as Shaq.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

@number1212

To be fair, I never predicted with certainty that Trolls would beat Moana in my OP. I allowed that if Trolls did it would be a "surprise". I said that it was possible. I DID say with certainty that Sing would beat Moana, however.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

You did, however, act like it was ridiculous if people had Trolls grossing the least and sang loud I told you sos when it first came out...yet, it's barely doubled its production budget.

[–] A-Rey-of-Light 8 years ago

Sing isn't going to approach $500 million overseas.

Galaxy's princess
Her mother, singer in rain
Unite in heaven