Karate, the situation and this type of events are not down to pure math, hours or even completely about training per se. (Though Daniel should've done a lot of sparring to prepare)
All variables are alive and in constant motion - there's the audience, the noise, the bright lights, judges, nervousness, and all the psychological factors that come with everything, that may confuse an unprepared mind.
If someone is 'more trained', but can't keep his mind focused, he can lose to a 'less trained' individual, that can keep his own mind focused.
If you don't train internally at all, you are psychologically vulnerable in a new and chaotic situation. If you do, you are better-equipped, even if your body is weak and scrawny.
Look and compare Johnny's focus in the last fight - he seems unfocused, chaotic, and his mind seems to wander - he hesitates, he doesn't move decisively and intuitively, or even organically. He moves robotically and is clearly unsure what to do, with a cluttered mind that can't stay in the moment.
Then contrast it to Daniel's mind, which is completely focused, waiting for Johnny to do something so he can react to it. Just focus on 'what kind of mind does each combatant have', and you can start to see clearly what I am talking about.
Daniel is in the moment, Johnny isn't. By the time Johnny makes a decision, Danny has already seen what's happening and reacted quickly - so before Johnny can get his head brought back to the moment and attempts to do something, it's already too late.
Focused mind can win against unfocused mind, even if every mathematical statistic and probability says otherwise. Karate is not math, and it's not about muscle. It's the inner strength and focus of the mind, and it's about the martial spirit, or as the Rocky IV song tells us, 'it's the passion, that kills'.
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