Currently WW 414M.
shareGonna need to find 300 million more 😬
shareNow 425M - looks like it’ll end up in the 450-500M mark.
shareI see it coming around 530M WW total. Don't get me wrong still a big flop. Anything below 600M is a big flop. Anything below 700M is a failure, but salvageable.
shareLet’s see how the toys sell, lol.
shareMy current projection is domestic 325, international 250, total of 575, which is about half of Aladdin.
shareWhy is 2.4 times the $250 million production cost a big flop? What did they spend on marketing?
If they get half of the gross receipts, then add in streaming revenue, product placements and DVD sales; they might make a decent profit.
I don't know, we can do the numbers. Your "If they get half of the gross receipts" is worst case scenario for the box office of this movie. To help those who defend this movie, I would use the 2.5x of the production cost (again, the best case scenario, since it is established that it could be between 2.5x to 3.0x of production cost). Even then, adding all the streaming, digital, merchandise, Disney paying themselves for the streaming, beggars money on the street and all help you want to include, this is a very close call for this movie to have 'decent profit'.
However, I think we all here know the movie will be a 'Box Office' flop (failure, if yo don't like the term). Imagine they need 2.5x production cost, that's 625M, which the movie wont be near at the end. All this is best case scenario. Then, by using your method, the movie would need even more, 780M, to get even, since you said they would take half of the gross profit to cover production cost plus marketing, and that is 250M + 140M (marketing). So, following your line of thought, when the movie fails to get to 600M dollars in box office, they will need over 100M dollars to cover for the rest of the 390M that the movie cost (production + marketing).
Regarding 'decent profit' we can make another long boring thread about it, but to make it short, 20 or 30 Million dollars is not decent profit for an inversion of 390M over a 3 years span.
How did you determine "that it could be between 2.5x to 3.0x of production cost"?
Using my method? What method is that? I asked what they spent on marketing and why 2.4 times the budget is a flop.
How did you come up with $140 million in marketing? Using a black lead actress seems to have self promoted this film with hardly any effort on Disney at all.
At the end, if they manage to recoup all expenses, $20 million is still a lot of money.
Fortunately, Mermaids can breathe underwater.
share