MovieChat Forums > Deadpool 2 (2018) Discussion > Box Office Predictions?

Box Office Predictions?

posted 7 years ago by billbrown7071 (3195)
11 replies | jump to latest

A Few Weeks ago I got into a argument with a poster on these boards, I gave my opinion that I believe Deadpool 2 is going to have a Decrease in Box office from Deadpool 1...I explained that I believed I just saw no way Deadpool 2 could get the same Hype, Buzz and Great Reviews/Reactions as Deadpool 1, I feel Deadpool 2 simply can not replicate Deadpool 1s reception, therefor, IMO Deadpool 2 Will Decrease in every way, I didnt/dont feel Deadpool 2 Will be a flop, Instead I thought Deadpool would be a Huge hit Just Make Less than Deadpool 1 across the board, the poster I was arguing with nearly had a heart attack and thought I was Crazy.

Fast Forward 3 weeks later...and here we are with reports that Deadpool 2 had terrible test screenings and The results suggest theres a massive "Aliens 3" type problem with the story that Audiences hate and Will hate, Theres also reports the movie is very simple, and Copied "Loopers" story/plot for Cable. IMO these are horrible signs

next we got our first look at early tracking, and Deadpool 2 is Tracking Shockingly low...Box office.com is predicting a 100 M opening Weekend and 242 Million total domestic Gross...

this is 33 M less than Deadpool 1 opened and over 120 million less domestically...

I expected Deadpool 2 make Less than Deadpool 1 but not this much, I told the poster I was arguing with A expect Deadpool 2 to make between 700 to 750 M and still be a huge hit...

now though, Its Looking like Deadpool 2 is gonna to have a MASSIVE BvS to JL type drop.

at this point I'm making 2 predictions---

Prediction 1, If Deadpool 2 does have HUGE problems and reviews and audience reactions are bad, I'm predicting-

$90 - 102 Million Opening Weekend
$240 to 260 Million Total Domestic
$625 to 675 Million World Wide

Prediction 2, If Deadpool 2 is Good, If they fix the problems and Deadpool 2 get a good or close to similar response as Deadpool 1, I'm Predicting-

$110-125 Million Opening Weekend
$275-330 Million Total Domestic
$700-750 Million WW

I see absolutely ZERO chance Deadpool 2 equals Deadpool 1s box office in any way, I think it will make less on OW,Domestically and WW...Still think it Will be a Pretty big hit, I just think the first Deadpool is going to prove to be the HIGH POINT for the franchise and its not possible to replicate its box office results again

what is your prediction>?

[–] HAL 9010 (907) 7 years ago

I agree on all your points. You may even be a bit too generous.

Beside what you mention above, a second installment here has what most second installments always have against them: Lack of novelty.

A huge parts of its success, I believe, was that it was typed as an underdog. And we always side with underdogs. Now the worlds knows Deadpool and many have gotten their thirst satisfied. Fans and friends will still flock to the cinema and hopefully enjoy it in full throttle, but that won't bring it near the numbers the first one saw.... so even without the poor signals you have read about and mentions above, I doubt it could ever reach the original.... simply because it is not the original. To do that it needs something more than just a repeat type and quality... it needs a "Heath Ledger" bomb surprise. And it doesn't have that, from what I hear. Nothing is wrong with that, but it then means less sold tickets. It is mathematics. Still enough though, and that is what really matters.

Cheers.

[–] [deleted] 7 years ago

Either case it will open close to 150 million

[–] DracTarashV2 (4497) 7 years ago

Although I agree that seeing it replicating the same kind of success/buzz the first movie experienced is hard at the moment (its marketing was crazy), those reported test screenings from 2-3 weeks ago that “suggested” the film was a big mess turned out to be... completely false.

http://www.complex.com/pop-culture/2018/03/what-test-screening-scores-for-deadpool-2-could-mean-for-its-box-office-success

A bunch of articles like this one started popping up a week ago and nearly all of them state the same thing: this sequel might be even better than its predecessor. In other words, the movie actually did extremely well at test screenings. Now what does this all mean for its box office? Well, whether it’s able to match the success of the first movie or not, I predict it will be a big hit regardless. I wouldn’t underestimate the merc with a mouth.

[–] HAL 9010 (907) 7 years ago

I think so. I also read that those red flags were bogus flags. They went up though.... but to fans and friends it means little, if anything. And we are not an insignificant group anymore. The difference is that I do not see the same grasp the original had. As you say; "the marketing was crazy". Now, I do not see the same buzz or even interest. Let us also not forget that the first one was by all means great fun, but not much more. And to keep drawing in such numbers... I suspect the market want more than what is fair to expect from this guy.

A hit is guaranteed. A larger hit is not.

[–] DracTarashV2 (4497) 7 years ago

Well, marketing has kicked into high gear and I dare say it looks like DP2 is going to surpass the original. I mean, Celine Dion? Attention-grabbing promos all over the web? Overtaking 7 Eleven stores? (I myself will be going to one to buy some of those sweet Deadpool products, lol). It certainly seems like the marketing campaign for a Deadpool movie is nuttier than ever before.

In addition, for the last several weeks it’s predicted by many that the movie is going to have a greater opening than the original. How it will hold up depends on word of (the merc) mouth. But at the moment, things are looking super positive for this sequel.

[–] HAL 9010 (907) 7 years ago

Yes, I cannot denye that. Also when we see how Black Panther and Avengers are rocking it, it seem the thirst is very strong for superhero movies at the moment. If the movie will be as good as the first, it may be enough to kick it to the hall of fame like the first... we shall see.

[–] Kingswood (1307) 7 years ago

Domestic: $405
Worldwide: $915

[–] bozo_500 (13388) 7 years ago

-think BP/Avengers IW will help it by having put audiences in the mood for (marvel) superhero movies
-first one was huge/well liked at cinema and no doubt was huge on dvd/blu with people who didn't see it at cin so sequel should be even bigger (like Rambo II, T2, Austin Powers 2, X2, Matrix 2, Pirates 2, TDK, Twilight 2, HungerGames2, Dawn of the Apes, the MCU sequels)
-to kids DP must be way cool (even more than Avengers) so to underage teens who couldn't see DP1 at cinema (but saw it on dvd) and are still too young or near about right age to see it there'll be the thrill of sneaking in to see it/1st R rated movie rites of passage type thing (like Rambo II, T2, Matrix 2) which should increase BO
-reviews are positive/fun movie

so:

150 opening wkend
400-450m domestic
600-650m overseas
= 1-1.1B

[–] billbrown7071 (3195) 7 years ago

IMO theres I see no way a rated R film is hitting 1 Billion....

I'm sticking with me original predictions of...

$275-330 Million Total Domestic
$700-750 Million WW

but my prediction of $110-125 Million Opening Weekend....looks like its going to be off....

from what it looks like Now, I could see it making between 130 to 145 Million(this is not a new Prediction, This is a forecast based on the current tracking)

Reviews hit tonight...They are good, But not as Overwhelming as I thought they would be...

actually This film is Mirroring DP1 in every way...Reviews are nearly Identical, even with the same RT score...Tracking Is nearly Identical...with 2 websites predicting 135 and 133 M...

It wouldnt surprise at the point in any way how DP2 performs on OW...

If It make 145 to 150 M, I could see that...

If It makes Nearly the identical Opening weekend to DP1, I could see that, Thats where everything is pointing to...

If it came in between 120 to 130...I could see that...

the only thing I'm certain of, Is I dont believe DP2 will much DP1s domestic total or World Wide Total....I think Its gonna have a decline in both but still be HUGE....But I could absolutely be wrong...I just find a hard believing Based on The nearly Identical tracking and Reviews that DP2 is gonna top DP1....It seem they managed to basically create the same amount of hype as the DP1 but not more...which is amazing, because I didnt think theres was anyway they could create the same level of hype again....

[–] bozo_500 (13388) 7 years ago

opening wkend = 125m
overall opening = 300m

[–] billbrown7071 (3195) 7 years ago

OMG I nailed it!

lol .....for the last 2 weeks queen has been posting A quote I said "NO way DP2 makes as Much as DP1 on OW".....Hes been posting it in every thread, trying to run in I was wrong....

lol I turned out EXACTLY right!

DP2 offically 125 Million OW(Maybe as low as 122-123 M)