Gandolfini is certainly a good actor, but he would be a terrible, terrible fit.
Shannon, strange mannerisms and expressions aside, is far closer in the demeanor as far as the real guy goes. You can see a prison interview of Kuklinski on Youtube - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tv4c3flhSaU "The Iceman Confessions".
When you realize all the horrible and terrible things Kuklinski did, and look at how he talks about it when they're interviewing him, it's pretty clear that there's something deeply wrong with the man. Gandolfini is a funny guy, but as far as conveying that deep-seated sociopathic mindset you see in the footage of Kuklinski, he'd never pull it off in a million years.
That's part of what makes it something that sucks you in - this guy, who looks normal, like an old football player gone to seed - going over things a thousand times worse than anything out of a horror movie. That he did, and kept on doing for decades. You could cast Ahhhnold as a ballerina, but it's going to be unintentionally funny at the end of the day.
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