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Alerra's Replies
We're veering off topic. Let's go back to some of the first questions. Does anyone in the southlands know about the living child? YES. There was a woman in the room with Lyanna, holding the baby, when Ned walks in. Would she have known about the marriage? Maybe. Lyanna could have said something to her, or she could have overheard Lyanna whisper, "His name is Aegon Targareon" and wonder why it wasn't Sand. Or it's possible she knows nothing of a secret marriage and assumes Lyanna was simply Rhaegar's mistress. BUT, she most certainly knows about Jon's existence (I'm calling him Jon for now).
Where did Ned's mysterious bastard come from? This is a question that has been brought up in previous seasons. Stannis comments on this when he's at Castle Black, saying that Ned was too honorable -- he didn't seem the type to betray his marriage vows. Others in Westeros may have commented on this as well.
Neither of those things are a smoking gun pointing anywhere. BUT, for someone like Varys or Littlefinger, there might just be enough suspicion for one of them to start looking a little closer. If either of them had found out that Lyanna had a child, and that coincidentally, right after Lyanna dies, her brother, the most honorable man in Westeros, shows up with a baby, claiming it's his bastard? Again, it might just be enough for one of them to have started adding up the hints.
Or it might not. For all we know, Varys knows nothing about it.
No, I don't think the locals would have assumed a marriage. But they may have been curious. Why the King's Guard if she's just a mistress? And why would the King's Guard then STAY for a mistress after the Trident?
I think there might just be enough 2+2+2+2 going on for Varys or Littlefinger to get 8 if either of them were curious enough to look. Why the King's Guard for the mistress of a dead prince? Where and when did Ned, the most honorable man alive, sire a bastard (cue Stannis)? Why does said bastard look nothing like Ned (cue Beric)? Where was the High Septon on such-and-such-a-date?
I saw a YouTube clip about this that hinted at the possibility that something may have been wrong with Elia that had only just started to present itself when Rhaegar and Lyanna meet (and that the Martells MAY have known about). Like mental instability or something similar that Rhaegar was concerned about passing along to his heirs. Since madness was already present in his children's genes through HIS ancestry, he didn't want to double the odds. It was already established that Elia couldn't have any additional children, so maybe combined with something like instability, that was enough for Rhaegar to start looking for a way out?
Note that, at the Laughing Tree Incident, while Robert is somewhat amused by Rhaegar naming Lyanna as Queen of Love and Beauty, and everyone else is somewhat scandalized by it all, Elia's reaction is never mentioned. Was she even at the joust? If not, where was she, and why?
There was at least one other woman (a midwife? a maid?) in the room with Lyanna when Ned walked in. And Howland Reed was there, waiting outside, don't forget. And then, there's the fact that there were members of the KING'S GUARD outside that Ned and Howland had to kill. The Dornish locals would probably have wondered why Raegar had members of his personal body guard hanging outside some random tower in the middle of nowhere. They wouldn't have been there if Lyanna had been only Raegar's mistress. And they're the king's guard, not the consort's, so once word came re: the Trident, they may not have stayed just for Lyanna, regardless of the marriage. Someone may have talked. (Probably to Varys -- peasant nobodies are his type of informers.)
Which makes me wonder what Jaime might know. He was a member of the King's Guard, too, after all. He might have said something to Littlefinger, even if it was a "You know, Raegar must have really had something for Lyanna Stark for him to have sent some of his Guard to protect her." And from there, Littlefinger may have been sneaky enough to have figured a few things out.
Another clue -- In Season 2? I think it was, Jaime says, "I've been in captivity for over a year."
Also, in Season 7, Cersei says something to the effect of, "Do you think I spent 40 years listening to Father and learning nothing?" So she and Jaime are probably somewhere in their mid 40's (they're twins, remember). Robert Baratheon was king for about 14 years, and prior to that, Jaime was young, but old enough to be in the King's Guard. So if Jaime was in his early to mid 20's when Robert was crowned, spent 14 years in Robert's Guard, and is now in his mid 40's, that gives a time frame of about 6 years or so.
That last bit is somewhat speculative, but it does help, at least for me anyway.