MovieChat Forums > The Little Mermaid (2023) Discussion > Box office performance is similar to Ala...

Box office performance is similar to Aladdin in 2019, but weak internationally

posted 2 years ago by fc31 (6118)
10 replies | jump to latest

Both are memorial day releases, and their numbers are similar, suggesting similar quality, and perhaps eventual performance.

This is little mermaid: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1913750273/

And this is Aladdin: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3246360065/

Though in term of international box office, the little mermaid performed much worse, maybe the recent waves of blackwashing irked people a little, then again it is early days.

I watched Aladdin before, thought it was a 'meh', so I probably won't watch this even when it is on streaming, then again I am a 50 years old man, and this is for children.

But apparently it is a very controversial film, so I thought I might as well weight in.

[–] [deleted] 2 years ago

A few things;

1. Due to inflation Aladdin's domestic opening was actually a tad stronger. We're talking nearly half a decade between releases. Also worth pointing out is Aladdin had a budget of $183 million. The Little Mermaid's is $250 million.

2. You'll note that Aladdin's international return was double it's domestic! Now note that The Little Mermaid's international return is currently half it's domestic! So you see both are the same domestically and assuming the runs and ratios stay the same it'll end up with Aladdin earning 4x as much internationally!! I'll repeat that for the hard of understanding at the back. It'll mean they both grossed the same domestically with Aladdin earning 4x as much internationally. They're not comparable. Aladdin blows this out of the water with regards to worldwide gross.

This is coming back to what I and others have said since last weekend. The domestic performance is fine, the international performance is absolutely atrocious. This is a certified flop, a potential huge money loser and all this hoop jumping to try act like it's a hit or that it's doing okay is hilarious. The figures are right there.

To any muppets desperately proclaiming this film a hit feel free to reply to this post angrily. Frothing at the mouth due to the cold hard figures right before you. How can you argue against literal facts?

[–] Techto (1388) 2 years ago

Little Mermaid looks like a flop, but only relative to expectations. On present trends, it will not be loss-making.

[–] BeenSavage (657) 2 years ago

How can you still say that after he/she just laid the facts out? It's doomed internationally and Spider-Man is releasing this week followed by The Flash in a couple of weeks. It's all downhill from here.

[–] Techto (1388) 2 years ago

It’s already the 7th highest grossing film (worldwide) of the year. Its worldwide box office take will likely exceed its budget by this weekend. In subsequent weeks it will make back its marketing and distribution costs and begin to turn a profit. Such a return will still be disappointing relative to expectations, however.

[–] FilmBuff (7436) 2 years ago

I think you are being very generous in terms of what it will take to profit on this film. Granted, no one really knows what the film cost to make, or what was spent promoting it, but the purported budget is $250 million. The ad campaign has been intense. I don't think I've seen this much promotion for a film since... I don't even know? Still, if we assume a very low promotional budget of $100,000,000, then that's $350 million needed to break even.

Where is the film now? Again, no one knows the exact breakdown, but the accepted rule is that studios get 50% of American ticket revenue and 40% of international ticket revenue, except from China, where they get only 25%.

138,583,114 U.S. sales
78,961,126 international, of which 2,638,829 came from China

comes out to 100,480,183 in profit so far, which translates into a deficit of 249,519,817.

In other words, the film needs to earn 2.5x more than it has already earned, just to break even. Never say never, but films don't typically do that, and those that do usually do so due to fantastic word of mouth that leads to longevity at the box office. Most likely, once Spider-Man comes out, this film will be forgotten.

Finally, note that I chose a very small promotional budget. You may need to tack on as much as $150 million more to the $249.5 million it still needs to break even.

[–] fc31 (6118) 2 years ago

the accepted rule is that studios get 50% of American ticket revenue and 40% of international ticket revenue

I don't think so. I read about it before, only Disney asked for that much, and I think only started with Marvel films.

[–] Techto (1388) 2 years ago

“In a break-even scenario off a $560M global box office (meaning a net profit of $71M before participations and residuals are accounted for), we’re told that Little Mermaid‘s global film revenues would amount to $547M against its combined production, global theatrical and home entertainment marketing expenses of $476M. The pic’s revenues broken down include $267M in global theatrical film rentals, $100M net in domestic pay/free TV and what Disney pays itself to put the movie on Disney+, $100M in global home entertainment (DVD, digital), and $80M in international TV and streaming.”

https://deadline.com/2023/05/little-mermaid-box-office-profit-loss-halle-bailey-1235383099/

[–] fc31 (6118) 2 years ago

"$560M global box office" = "$267M in global theatrical film rentals", that implies Disney is taking box office share of 47.7% on global box office (including domestic and international). I am guessing Disney is not only taking this kind of share on just Marvel movies, at the very least it includes this one.

[–] fc31 (6118) 2 years ago

I think that depends on the box office share Disney takes, streaming income and promotional cost.

Usually movie studios demand around 40% of domestic box office and 25% of international box office, but Disney usually asks for more, at least on Marvel movies, but that only happened in recent years, I think that is one of the reasons recent Marvel movies were not showing in China, because overseas movie box office take is capped at 25% in China.

But this movie showed in China, so let's assume Disney did not demand the same box office take of Marvel movies.

Assuming it's eventual domestic box office is the same as Aladdin, which is $355 mil, and assuming it's international box office is the same, and Disney's take of them are 40% and 25% respectively. That makes Disney's box office revenue as of $230 mil.

Promotional cost of the movie is usually around half of production cost for movies like this, which is shown as $250 mil at least according to IMDB. I don't know how much steaming and other revenues are, but let's assume it is about half of box office revenue.

If those numbers make sense, then there is a chance Disney losing money on this movie.

[–] fc31 (6118) 2 years ago

The fist 3 days of this week start showing weaker performance, about 10% ~ 15% weaker than Aladdin. Considering it opened slightly stronger than Aladdin I'd say the word of mouth starting to spread.

The upside is the international box office starts to catch up, it did very well in UK.