Domestic Opening Weekend:
$230-270 Million
Domestic Gross:
$690-730 Million
Total Earning:
$1.60-2.00 Billion
I've already bought 3D Atmos tickets for the 27th of April.
No idea on "total" opening weekend, since I'm not sure which countries that includes ...can you help me out?
Domestic opening weekend: ~ $215,000,000 *
*extra impressive since this won't be a 4-day holiday weekend like BP had to work with
Total worldwide: ~ $,1,825,000,000
Total domestic: ~ $705,000,000
literally chuckled out loud at your 320 to 360 OW
but my Prediction is 2 predictions...I have concerns on Disney Moving up AIW release date(IMO that could be bad sign....or maybe a good sign, I dont know)but I'm going to give 2 predictions for if AIW is good and if its bad-
If AIW is Good to Great, If it get Good to Great reviews and has Great WOM my prediction is-
OW-$210 to 230 Million
Total Domestic-470 to 550 Million
World Wide-$1.350 to 1.6 Billion(IMO closer to 1.350 B)
If AIW is bad, If Disney Moved AIW back a week because they arent confident in it and dont want bad reviews getting out early, then my prediction is-
OW 190 to 205 Million
total Domestic-380 to 425 Million
World Wide-1.150 to 1.250 Billion
If this movie is Truly great, considered one of the best CBM's ever...If it gets an "A+" cinemascore, If it has shocking and Iconic moments like the death of Major characters(like Cap,Thor,Tony)...
then IMO a total Over 1.6 Billion is Possible...
I'm started to get the sense the movie truly is feeling special with Audiences, Its not just being viewed as another Avengers film, But The culmination of the MCU, With this film having every major MCU character in it(the most superheroes ever in a CBM) and a Villain that has been teased for 10 years...Audiences truly are seeing this film as something special...If this film itself is Great...Box office could get crazy...
I'm still going with a safe prediction....but the possibility is there for something crazy
Yeah, had to re-adjust... Was looking at the wrong stats. XD
shareDomestic Opening Weekend:
$230 mil
Domestic Gross:
$640 mil
Total Earning:
$1.7 Bil
I cant believe so many people are going with such a high Domestic Grosses
IMO theres like a 85/15% chance AIW doesnt hit 600 M Domestic.
I get that a lot of people are looking at BP and thinking AIW Will perform even better...
But BP is going to be the 3rd highest grossing domestic release of all time...
for that to happen, Magic had to strike...
theres going to be a large Audience that saw Black Panther that simply wont see Avengers IW or any other CBM...
Basically For AIW to make 600 M domestically....Its got to have Avengers 1 Word of Mouth and Holds...I just dont see that happening...
Avengers IW literally has to get a "A+" Cinemascore, Gets over 90% on RT, universally be recognized as one of the best CBMs ever...to have any shot at 600 Million domestically...'Basically AIW literally has to get every single person that saw Avengers 1 and then Get those same people who saw Avengers 1 Multiple times to see AIW multiple times too
thats the key here...
The Avengers and Black Panther are the most repeat viewed CBM's in theatrical history, I know this because I just read the article where Black Panther Broke Avengers record.
Based on data, ticket sales, and theaters reports, Black Panther has had the Most Repeat Viewing out of any CBM ever(Avengers 1 previously held that title)
and there one HUGE KEY to this....coincidentally...Black Panther and The Avengers are the ONLY 2 CBMs ever to get A+ cinemascores...
So thats means for AIW to have any chance to get the same kind of repeat Viewing, An A+ Cinemascore is a MUST, and those arent easy to come by
In conclusion...If you predict AIW to make 600 million or more...Than you are basically saying AIW is gonna be one of the greatest CBMs ever, Will get a 90% + on RT and Will get An A+ Cinemascore and Have ALL TIME great Wom...
its not impossible, But highly unlikely, basically there shouldnt be very many 600 M+ predictions, ONLY if you believe AIW is going to Be HISTORICALLY great in quality
I think black Panther did it for me...can’t imagine movie with him and spidey getting anywhere less than 600 million
shareThanos finally making his appearance will draw them in big time...it's gonna be like reincarnating Darth Vader and bringing him back to the Star Wars saga. Reflecting on it, I actually feel my estimates are fairly conservative at the moment.
sharebut do you guys understand what it gonna take to get a 600 M+?
Avengers IW Will open over 200 M, probably between 210 to 230 M....
But then in order for AIW to have any shot at 600 Million...It has to have at least 50% holds from there out on out.
which means, It Got to be GREAT, Word of mouth has to be excellent...
I get what you guys are talking about with Thanos, Why you feel this movie is so important, With all these characters, but that really ONLY helps on Opening Weekend, the Event nature of this film Will great benefit its Opening weekend IMO guaranteeing a 200 M + opening..
but from there on out, IF Word of mouth isnt great, AIW has no shot at 600 M..
for example, If Avengers IW doesnt have a 100 M+ 2nd weekend Its over, It has no shot at 600 M, Lets say AIW opens to 215 M...
Avengers IW has to have Great WOM to get a 100 M + 2nd weekend...the average drop for CBM's in their 2nd weekend is 55 to 60 %...
If AIW has an Average Drop, the will be below 100 M in Its second weekend.
Both Avengers AOU and Civil War had 59% drops in their 2nd weekends, Civil War had Excellent WOM
Its not exactly easily to have A 50% drops in your 2nd Weekend when you open that HUGE...
you guys arent understanding that a 600 M + domestic Gross is 100% dependent on If Avengers IW is TRULY GREAT With Excellent Word Of Mouth...the opening Weekend isnt going to impact if AIW makes 600 M+ or not....Its going to be its 2nd,3rd and entire run...If AIW doesnt get a A+ cinemascore, If it doesnt have the same level of repeat viewing as Avengers 1 and BP, If it does have 50% or Less drops for its entire run, Its got no chance
If you believe Avengers IW will do all these things, then more power to you, Predict 600 M+
But if your predicting 600 M+ because of The Villain or because its got A Ton of MCU characters in it, I dont think your understanding box office, Those things will only impact OPENING WEEKEND...those things will only ensure A Huge, Probably 200 M + Opening weekend
which means, It Got to be GREAT, Word of mouth has to be excellent...
You make a lot of sense, but consider that Infinity War's pre-sales have outsold the previous 7 MCU films combined. Black Panther alone had a massive amount of pre-sales, so those can't all be opening weekend tickets. A large chunk of those have to be after the weekend, as there just aren't that many seats available for even half of them to all be in the opening Thursday + 3 days. That leads me to believe this film may not have as big a drop as you think, even if it isn't an A+ film.
On a more anecdotal note, the person I'm seeing the film with on the 26th has only been to one other MCU film-- the first Avengers film. She's not a comic book movie fan unless Batman is involved, but she wants to see this because it's "a thing." I think many casual fans, who only come out for the "major" Marvel films, are considering this a must-see.
Also anecdotally, but more evidence-based, I've read a LOT of posts and Tweets and so forth from Black Panther fans, who didn't see many, or any, of the previous Marvel films, who are champing at the bit to catch up on Wakanda in Infinity War.
Will all of this lead to a $600 billion or more domestic total? Who's to say? It certainly feels to me like a groundswell of interest that could explode into an unprecedented opening two weekends. After that, it depends on how great the film is, but even at that-- The Last Jedi showed us that sometimes a flawed film with a fair amount of negative word of mouth can still be carried quite far by its momentum.
I wouldn't go so far as calling this a prediction, but my guess is something like
Opening Weekend: $225-250 million (but $300 million would not shock me)
Second Week $125-175 million (but $200 million would not shock me)
Total Domestic Box Office anywhere from $500 to $700 million, based on critics and word of mouth
This movie is more than just a movie, it's an event. Surely it will top BP's OW, though it probably won't have its holds. So unless it's excellent and its competition turns out to be duds (like BP's competition) it will earn less than 600M, I'll go with 550M. Internationally I'll say 1.2B (that's without the States).
sharehttps://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/22/avengers-infinity-war-could-make-box-office-history.html
I'm thinking with the success of BP and BP being in said IW movie, it'll give it the boost it needs to possibly beat out SW:TFA.
Does it piss you off that I have tickets for tomorrow? It must be frustrating that an American movie opens 3 days earlier in other parts of the world.
shareI'm sure a lot of people would like to see it sooner, but I highly doubt that it pisses anyone off. Where are you that it's opening so early?
sharehttps://www.imdb.com/title/tt4154756/releaseinfo?ref_=tt_ov_inf
Take your pic. It's interesting that i see April 27 everywhere when a huge number of countries get it tomorrow
Lol, I wish it pissed me off but it doesn't at all. Enjoy the early advance viewing. Heck, many people get advance screenings to movies weeks before movie release. I can wait 4 days as I have tons of other shows to watch to pass the time. If you watch enough movies, you get immune to the hype.
shareI am a pathologically impatient person
shareI'm jumping in!
Domestic Opening Weekend:
$200-230 Million
Domestic Gross:
$710-800 Million
Total Earning:
$1.1-1.9 Billion
* Note - these are just guestimates based on the poster's ceilings-high enthusiasm. At the end of the day, I just hope it meets expectations. :)
it's much less bold for me to jump in now that we have an early rt score & a feel for critical response.
the generally positive but not rhapsodizing over its greatness level reviews make me think this will only be huge, instead of historically enormous.
opening weekend: $225m
domestic total: $525
total gross: $1.59 billion