Will IW beat BP?
Inquiring minds want to know?
It will make at least $1.3b. What says you?
Yes ...and quite handily.
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MovieChat Forums > Avengers: Infinity War (2018) Discussion > Will IW beat BP?
If BP outgrosses IW in even the slightest statistical blip, I for one will be greatly amused!
shareme too!
shareYou shouldn't be. For Infinity War to outgross Black Panther would be a massive win for Marvel, and far beyond what would be considered a success.
If Infinity War tops $410 million domestically, it will have outgrossed every Marvel film other than the first two Avengers films and Black Panther, which is more or less the baseline expectation for what it needs to do to be considered a successful film. Anything more than that is gravy.
Internationally, one would hope it would surpass Civil War, and best-case Iron Man 3. An international gross of $750 million is the benchmark, with $810 million being the high-end expectation.
Infinity War certainly has the potential to do even better than $1.16 billion globally, but that's more or less the figure it needs to hit to be a success.
Black Panther is a once-in-a-generation event that has surpassed every conceivable benchmark, and rocketed up the charts. If Infinity War does outgross it, then-- remarkable! Astounding! But anyone who thinks it will be amusing, or a sign of failure, if it doesn't is displaying a profound lack of understanding of how the box office works.
Black Panther is a once-in-a-generation event that has surpassed every conceivable benchmark, and rocketed up the charts. If Infinity War does outgross it, then-- remarkable! Astounding! But anyone who thinks it will be amusing, or a sign of failure, if it doesn't is displaying a profound lack of understanding of how the box office works.
I'm going to hold you to that one FB. I think it is you who doesn't know how cinema works and not just the Box Office element of it. share
I don't quite see your point. Are you saying that Infinity War has to outgross Black Panther to be considered a "success?" Because that's the only point I made. I believe the benchmarks for failure/success for Infinity War are $410 million domestic and $810 million international.
I certainly think Infinity War has the potential to outgross Black Panther. I would not be shocked to see it top $1.5 billion globally, but I don't think it should be considered a failure if it doesn't match the unexpected level of success of Black Panther.
It certainly won't be a failure but I think you'll have a lot of Black Panther fans wish to continue seeing their once-in-a-generation event hero continue their adventure so close to its release as well as the fans of Thor, Guardians of the Galaxy, Iron Man, Spider-Man, Captain America, Doctor Strange, Ant-Man, Hulk and the rest of the gang all fight together against a common enemy.
Each of these heroes can pull in a substantial box office and linking them altogether can only increase what that total box office can be as not all films appeal to all people but all people who have favourites will see this movie.
With the only real competition in this genre being Deadpool, I think you'll see a clean run this Summer surpassing anything yet made by Marvel at the box office takings.
A large part of that will be because of Black Panther, so it only builds on the previously set-up successes of prior movies.
I completely agree that Black Panther's success will carry over to Infinity War. I think the x-factor is "how good is the movie?" The fact that it's a Marvel film, and the culmination to the entire decade-long arc, guarantees it will make a lot of money, but it needs to be well-reviewed, and get strong word-of-mouth, if it's going to outsell Black Panther.
Competition-wise, Deadpool 2 and Solo are formidable. Infinity War won't have the advantage the first two Avengers films had in terms of competition. Your options if you didn't want to see the first Avengers film were Battleship and Dark Shadows, or maybe Men in Black 3. Age of Ultron went up against Mad Max:Fury Road and Pitch Perfect 2.
Infinity War could post the first $300 million opening weekend. It could pass Jurassic World on the all-time international box office chart. Neither of those would leave me flabbergasted. But as long as it hits my magic number of $1.16 billion globally, I'll consider it a successful film, and won't laugh that it didn't beat Black Panther.
Infinity War could post the first $300 million opening weekend. It could pass Jurassic World on the all-time international box office chart. Neither of those would leave me flabbergasted. But as long as it hits my magic number of $1.16 billion globally, I'll consider it a successful film, and won't laugh that it didn't beat Black Panther.
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if I read this yesterday I would have literally responded by saying A 300 Million dollar opening weekend is beyond ABSURD and has no chance of happening!
but today, I got to say....Its pretty UNLIKELY...But Maybe not Impossible...
I just read the news that AIW is breaking every Fandango Record there is and the real stunner is...
Right Now in its cycle, AIW has sold More Presale tickets than the last 7 MCU films COMBINED...
thats almost Unimaginable ...CW Opened to 179 M....Black Panther to 201, Thor 3,SPHC, GOTG2 all over 100 M....and AIW has literally sold more tickets than all of them COMBINED....
something is happening with AIW....Its truly being seen as an Event film and Maybe THE Event Film of All EVENT Films....
If AIW gets great reviews and the general consensus is it truly is something special.....ALL BETS are off on Opening Weekend...If you had Excellent Reviews and A sense that this is one of the Great CBMs ever to the Hype that is going on right now....Then I cant believe I'm saying this but maybe a 300 M dollar opening is possible...
right now I'm going with 220 to 235 M....
But I must say that stat of AIW out selling the Last 7 MCU films COMBINED is a straight stunner, especially considering 2 of those films had 2 of the 6 Biggest Opening of all time....
it would be one thing if the last 7 MCU films had Opening like between 60 to 80 M and AIW was out selling them all....But when you look at just how insanely successful and how HUGE all 6 of the 7 Opening have been....Its just Stunning...
right now I'm putting about a 8% chance at a 300 M opening...not very good, But IMO NOT impossible now
I read the same thing this morning, which is what prompted me to comment as I did. Until today I didn't think a $300 million weekend could be a thing for IW, but if it really has racked up more pre-sale tickets than the last 7 MCU films combined, then it is certainly not an impossibility. Still very unlikely, but... probably will come down to how many showings there are that weekend. If demand is enough to dedicated additional theaters to the film, anything can happen.
shareunless it truly disappoints audiences, i'll say it almost certainly beats bp worldwide. the built-in audience for this thing is vast enough that, unless word of mouth is dour, it will make something close to age of ultron numbers at minimum.
domestically, i think bp is probably going to have the higher gross. no one can say that a movie is guaranteed to make $600m. something fairly special, a true cultural momentum, has to happen for a movie to scale that height. it could happen with iw, it certainly has powerful tailwinds, but the film itself would truly have to satisfy in a unique way to get there, i think.
I think it could reach $2B. Or close to it.
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