I think you need to have a bit more faith in the spirit of Agatha Christie, and remember that while experienced readers/viewers may have an inkling, I can assure you those in the dark will be hazarding any number of guesses. Normally when first watching (or reading) a whodunnit, the audience will legitimately suspect everyone... even the killer rightly so once or twice, but through the course of the bulk of the story will be led astray by the red herrings and sleight of hand.
The first and biggest trick being played on us is the title (well, the "doggerel"): half the audience may believe that this is a special murder mystery where everyone dies (or in equal measure the last person surviving is the killer) and an outsider -- perhaps a key person from one of the flashbacks -- is responsible.
As for Justice Wargrave, don't forget that upon arrival he was the very first person to remark that something was amiss ("She's not even here... it's very strange... very strange, indeed..."), and later after dinner he is the first to suggest a plan to leave the island ("... then we confront them!") which lends credence both to the notion of his innocence in the scenario, and to his calm, mature demeanour. Meanwhile, the audience has been carefully conditioned to suspect Vera Claythorne from the start, who on the surface would appear the mark of irreproachable politeness and naivety, but due to the protagonist-like focus given her (she was the first person we saw, the first person to travel to the island, and hers was the first backstory of which we knew and the act of murder last to be properly explained), I guarantee the audience has her as their prime candidate due to the nature of the genre, where the audience thinks they are outsmarting the writer, but the writer is actually outsmarting them.
Just think back to when you first read the novel. When you think about it, the Judge is the obvious candidate for someone to have arranged a live trial and sentencing of 10 guests, hidden in quite plain sight, but you fairly were misled when you didn't know what to look out for like you do now knowing the solution.
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