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Wild projections wrong; Heading To Second Best October Opening With $93M+

posted a year ago by Satan2016 (25525)
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Industry First Day Presales $37M+, Bigger Than ‘Force Awakens’; Concert Pic Headed For $70M+ Opening
https://deadline.com/2023/09/taylor-swift-eras-tour-film-presales-box-office-projection-1235534031/

The AMC-distributed concert film Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour, according to sources, has clocked $37M+ from the three big theater circuits — AMC, Regal and Cinemark — in its first 24 hours of presales. That’s definitely higher than the Day 1 presales of Star Wars: The Force Awakens at $20M.

The current opening weekend projection for Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is $70M — at least right now. Box office sources are figuring that presales rep roughly 50% of the pic’s opening weekend. How is that? Female-skewing movies, i.e. Twilight, typically are front-loaded at the box office, and Swifties are heading to this in packs.

[–] Satan2016 (25525) a year ago

Concert Movie Now Seeing $65 Million+ In Presales; $100M Box Office Opening Within Reason
https://deadline.com/2023/09/taylor-swift-the-eras-tour-box-office-1235547370/

Sources tell us that advance tickets sales for the Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour concert movie have reached $65 million-plus. That’s a figure comprising the top three U.S. circuits — AMC, Regal and Cinemark — Canada’s Cineplex and Mexico’s Cinépolis.

That figure, which comes a a month before its October 13 opening, already bests the U.S.-Canada advance ticket sales of mega-superhero movies including Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($60M) and The Batman ($42M). Those numbers were clocked just prior to those movies’ respective opening dates. The Eras Tour still trails the pandemic presales record of Spider-Man: No Way Home, which banked $120M before its opening day.

Many distribution sources tell us that they would not be shocked by a $100M opening for The Eras Tour. The question is how front-loaded the movie will be given the tendency of female moviegoers to show up in packs for initial showtimes. Also, will be there repeat business like Barbie?

[–] Satan2016 (25525) a year ago

The Eras Tour’ Hits Tracking With $100M-$125M Opening Weekend Projection
https://deadline.com/2023/09/taylor-swift-eras-tour-box-office-projection-1235552652/

We promise that you’ll never find another one like this: AMC’s Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour concert movie hit tracking this morning with a $100M-$125M opening-weekend outlook when it opens on October 13 in cinemas.

These are industry estimates and do not come from AMC.

The Sam Wrench-directed concert film is really hot with women under 25, just a few points under Barbie ($162M opening) and north of The Little Mermaid ($118.8M four-day opening).

[–] Evoken (1402) a year ago

This will end up being insanely successful. Taylor is on a completely different level.

[–] Satan2016 (25525) a year ago

Eras Tour’ Concert Movie Now Getting Global Theatrical Release
https://deadline.com/2023/09/taylor-swift-eras-tour-concert-movie-box-office-presales-record-1235556273/

AMC is working with its sub-distribution partners to reach agreements with operators representing more than 7,500 movie theaters globally to show the film. The Eras Tour will play at all Odeon locations throughout Europe. It already is set to play in more than 4,000 locations in U.S./Canada.

[–] Satan2016 (25525) a year ago

Taylor Swift Box Office: ‘The Eras Tour’ Heads for Record $150M-$200M Global Opening
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/taylor-swift-the-eras-tour-box-office-1235614085/

The Swifties are getting ready to make box office history.

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour is headed for a record global opening for a concert film of $150 million to $200 million, including $100 million to $125 million in North America and $50 million to $75 million overseas.

AMC Theatres, which is distributing the concert pic on behalf of the superstar pop singer, is sticking to the more conservative estimate of $150 million globally, including $100 million domestically.

Swift’s film will begin screening 6 p.m. local time on Friday in more than 8,500 cinemas in roughly 100 countries, including in every AMC location in the U.S. Generally, a movie holds previews Thursday night before officially opening on Friday morning. (Eras Tour‘s truncated release makes it more difficult to predict its opening.)

[–] Satan2016 (25525) a year ago

Down to $107M-$130M. This article gets updated twice a day.
https://deadline.com/2023/10/box-office-taylor-swift-eras-tour-concert-film-opening-1235572671/

[–] Satan2016 (25525) a year ago

Sat am: Sources said predicting Taylor Swift: Eras Tour would be a roller coaster ride, and well, here it is: Friday now looks to be settling at an estimated $37.8M –that’s according to industry estimates this morning. AMC is calling Friday for Eras Tour at $39M. That’s the second-biggest opening day of October, right behind The Joker‘s $39.3M back in 2019, and ahead of 2021’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage‘s $37.4M.

Despite that good news, this ratchets down the 3-day to $90M-$109M at 3,850 theaters. Again, that outlook doesn’t come from AMC. Here’s the thing, as we always said — if this movie misses the $100M mark and lands in the high $90Ms, that’s nothing for AMC and the industry to throw furniture around about. At $90M, Eras Tour would battle Venom: Let There be Carnage as the second-highest domestic start in October after Joker‘s $96.2M. Note, Eras Tour still has a shot at hitting the $100M bullseye. But you have to build in safeguards for Swift.

[–] Satan2016 (25525) a year ago

We can’t forget this record: Eras Tour will rep the biggest start ever for a movie distributed by a movie theater chain, that being AMC.

And she’ll write her name in CinemaScore, meaning Swift gets a rare A+ in exit polls. Wow. There’s only been 86 movies which have received an A+ CinemaScore since the audience exit company began back in January 1986, and Swift is one of them. She’s in the company of such movies as Spider-Man: No Way Home, Black Panther, 1991’s Beauty and the Beast, Avengers: Endgame, Titanic, and E.T., to name a few. Rotten Tomatoes audience score is at 99%.

[–] Satan2016 (25525) a year ago

Sat pm: Heading To Second Best October Opening With $93M+

OK, so box office sources got excited, estimated that Taylor Swift: Eras Tour was going to open to $100M+, and all the while said in the same breath “We don’t know what we’re talking about. This one is hard to guess. It’s a unicorn.” Well, you were close, and that doesn’t mean that this concert pic’s opening is an upset with what’s looking like a $93.3M start. That’s the second-best domestic opening at the October box office after The Joker‘s $96.2M.

[–] MartyDeniro (4171) a year ago

They're right, in that it is harder to predict than most. Wait until Monday for actuals, b/c the final tally could be quite different.

[–] MartyDeniro (4171) a year ago

Box Office: Taylor Swift’s ‘Eras Tour’ Concert Film Dazzles With Estimated $95 Million to $97 Million Opening Weekend

https://variety.com/2023/film/box-office/taylor-swift-eras-tour-box-office-record-october-opening-weekend-1235756670/

[–] Satan2016 (25525) a year ago

Swifties Drop Everything Now For Concert Pic’s Global Opening, Shelling Out $126M-$130M
https://deadline.com/2023/10/taylor-swift-eras-tour-global-international-box-office-1235574038/

Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour may have missed the century mark in regards to a domestic opening, but the 12x Grammy winner was always guaranteed that number worldwide, with AMC reporting this AM that the Sam Wrench-directed concert pic has racked up $126M-$130M. The international box office opening is estimated at $31M-$33M. AMC is reporting a range à la North America; this the first time the circuit has handled a global theatrical-day-and-date release of this magnitude.