It certainly won't be this one. After all the fuss is has virtually no supporters.
It could still win for purely woke reasons, which is the direction the Oscars have taken in recent years.
Yes, I wouldn't count it out yet.
LOL! Not likely.
Recent? It’s been doing that for many years, long before the current woke plague infected the U.S.
Probably 'Anora' or 'A Complete Unknown' and 'The Brutalist'.
Hopefully A Complete Unknown
Personally I hate when biopics win acting awards. The actors are just doing impressions of actual people. Based on that, Rich Little and other impressionists should have been given Oscars every year.