From the numbers so far I think the eventual numbers are likely:
Domestic: $290 mil
International: $240 mil
Total: $530 mil
Which makes it a box office success (3rd installment could be expected), but not a mega hit by today's standards.
First week will be $200m, gross $400m minimum. Could reach a billion.
shareCould reach a billion
Wish appears to be fulfilled lol
shareNobody thought of that. I don't think even the people said it at the time actually believed it. I think they were mostly shills hired hyping the movie, unless they were idiots of course.
Then again, even idiots could be right sometimes.
who r u to talk. your idiotic prediction could never be right. impossible to end up so low after the first week of box office haul u already had in front of u wehn you made it. extrapolation astonishingly bad. everyone understood it must end up much higher except u. haha
shareIt is a rewatchable film. I would place my bet on clearing one billion.
WORLDWIDE
$321,445,421
only 6 days! will hit a billion by July 4.
The box office trajectory of this movie is not that different from other blockbusters, use the opening number and eventual number of a comparable blockbuster you should be able to get the numbers yourself, but I don't think it is going to be that different from the numbers I got.
The main difference of this movie is it's international box office, which is a lot weaker compare to other movies. Use the current percentage you could derive the number from the projected domestic box office. Again your result is likely not that different from mine.
thats some great word salad, but you are basically saying it will only make another 210m.
see you back in a month.
From the numbers so far I think the eventual numbers are likely:share
Domestic: $290 mil
International: $240 mil
Total: $530 mil
Which makes it a box office success (3rd installment could be expected), but not a mega hit by today's standards.
best troll post in a long time.
shareWorldwide=ni
Domestic...next weekend maybe a 50% drop off.
Anything else would be disappointing, I would imagine.
Way off. It'll already be at 200mil+ domestic heading into its 2nd weekend. Even with a bigger than expected drop, it'll still pass 240 by Sun am, and probably pass 440 worldwide. And it may pass your "likely" grand total (530) as early as 6/11, and with the rest of that theatrical window still to go over the summer, "box office success" will be a modest way of putting it. The loss of China may stop it from being a mega hit, but you can't make money where they ban you.
shareThese are projections, not prophecy, so we will have to wait and see.
And it is not just loss of China, a lot of European countries are also not showing it, I think most likely for commercial reasons as well.
you can't make money where they ban you
For a Tom Cruise action movie, China is the biggest foreign market loss by far. Leaving out that ban when talking about it falling short of "mega hit" standards is misleading. There's a difference between "They didn't come out." and "They couldn't come out." So, if it makes 530, or your new max (600) that adds another 13% to "box office success," and it gets there without a dollar from China, what do you call it?
And I don't pretend to know about what some European countries are thinking in terms of release strategy -- but I do know that it hasn't yet been released in every market where it will be released. I also know that the reporting of foreign totals lags, sometimes by a lot.
Ah, the edit to include your "the American" shtick again.
I don't care about Top Gun. I didn't like the first one, and I won't see this until cable or something on a rainy day. So I have no investment, but that doesn't mean I turn away from the obvious. Action translates. It always has. A simple plot, that you could probably follow 90% of with the sound down, translates. Heroes translate (ask Marvel if those abroad care about American comic book superheroes, as they count the receipts to their global mega hits). Tom Cruise translates -- where even Cannes is giving him standing ovations and awards despite a largely commercial film legacy. The last silly movie with Vin Diesel driving around with his friends made 221mil in China, but 174mil here. Maybe you just don't want to believe that it's possible despite all this.
Doctor Strange 2 was not shown in China either, but still about 60% of it's box office from overseas, instead of about 40% like this movie.
I don't pretend to know about what some European countries are thinking in terms of release strategy
My take on China comes from a typical history of lapping up American action films that everyone who follows this stuff already knows -- except you. Tentpoles are crafted with mass appeal and the global market in mind. Somehow you missed this huge intl growth that's been going on for over 15 yrs now. Play a game: pick a country, pick a year, and look up its top 10 grossing films, then see how many times an American tentpole makes the cut.
And what hatred? "Ugly"? Are you projecting? Or just more pretending that China's withdrawal decision from above reflects the movie's lack of appeal to its citizenry? Based on what? Strange they were partners in this for a long time, huh? Did they just realize that it's a Top Gun movie, about an American pilot, and the American military? Did they miss the first one or something? This thing has been in the can for a while. But I'm sure the man on the street in China is really thinking, "Hmmm... This seems like it might be more of an American wish fulfillment. I pass!" instead of Tom Cruise, jet fighters, cool action, and fun. Silly. They're pirating it right now.
And I'm glad you mention Dr. Strange, but I'll add the other recent Marvel movies that were also nixed. Interesting timing again, huh? After Marvel movies killing in China for years, I guess the powers that be suddenly thought that the citizenry would have no interest in more? Absurd. It's about recent times, and the only paranoia here comes from those who censor and restrict. Why not have it in limited release at least? And let the movies fall of their own weight, if there's little interest? Let the people decide? Lol, never, b/c they know their people eat up this content, just like the US does, as the box office history has clearly indicated for years, up until a period in time when relationships are increasingly strained. Couldn't be that, nah, never that. The Chinese public just has little interest in these films, except that's completely and utterly false.
With American mentality like that, you wonder why foreigners not embracing this film and the American exceptionalism comes with it.
share More something-something-American-something-Ugly-something-America, huh? No points. No counters. B/c you have none.
Don't you realize that you're blinded in the same way you think Americans are? Your seething bitterness is palpable. That's where it has to go, like a reflex. So painfully predictable, I could set my watch by it. Another jab at American mentality from a painfully obvious anti-American mentality. Face it, you can't help it.
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yeah, it doesnt appeal to people of other countries, at least not that much. sure. 546mil
even more than Doc Strange. somehow you blew the intl box office even worse than the US. what's the #1 movie in Australia you box office sage? haha. Top Gun made 2x both Doc Strange and Batman. you Aussies ate it up. haha
You were right. As of 6/9, the total is 612 million and still have the weekend to go. It will clear a billion by the end of its run.
Well it might hurt total box office with Tom Cruise competing against himself with the next installment of Mission Impossible (July?) soon.
Regardless of Top Gun individual receipts, Cruise is set to have the biggest year of his career, possibly of any single actor's career, ever.
191m domestic thru Wed.
It'll already be at 205m before heading into only its 2nd weekend.
Doctor Strange 2 has an opening number of $187,420,998, and eventual domestic box office of $378,050,351.
This movie has an opening number of $126,707,459, and I am predicting domestic box office of $290 mil.
What do you think? Am I being optimistic, or pessimistic?
lol, Top Gun is almost certain to do 400m+, unless it drops like a rock
shareNumbers don't lie, but I guess a lot of you are unwilling to see it.
sharesee what? comic book movies are super frontloaded , Cruise movies have legs
shareI already took allowance of that, that is why the prediction is not 260, 260 is what you get if you made calculation based on Doctor Strange 2.
shareafter this weekend it will be close to 260m , so please predict 360m if pessimistic
shareNot impossible, but 360 is just very optimistic. Then again I am not American, so can't really predict how strong the American jingoism is. I think that is the reason why an average movie to me can perform like that in US.
shareits an average movie with great action scenes, sometimes that is enough when you have huge star like Cruise in the lead , Marvel films make a lot money being mediocre , so don't be surprised
shareIt already does. The movie he chose to compare is a textbook case of frontloading on the domestic side.
Look at the graphs:
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Doctor-Strange-in-the-Multiverse-of-Madness-(2022)#tab=box-office
https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Top-Gun-Maverick-(2020)#tab=box-office
Early, but Doctor Strange immediately dipped below the shading, while Top Gun 2 immediately rose above. And it has no competition this weekend at all. He chose 44%, 126/290 -- that leans towards pessimism whether he realizes it or not. If it's merely 40% -- which is the middle -- it'll reach 319. If we lean 4% towards optimism, it'll reach 350. If we take it all the way to max optimism, it'll reach 400mil+. But from what we have this week, the lean is already optimistic. Much more leggy than Dr. Strange 2 at the same point.
Doctor Strange 2 had a huge domestic drop off in its 2nd weekend -- 68% -- and had a B+ CinemaScore, Top Gun 2, A+. And since you want to compare the two: during the week (I won't include the Monday b/c of Memorial Day -- but the box office sure does) after that opening weekend, Dr. Strange 2 made 30mil Tues-Wed-Thurs (declining every day), Top Gun 2 has already made 30mil just from Tues-Wed (pretty even each day), and will likely be at 45mil after Thurs comes in. That's the difference between less legs and more legs. The rule of thumb is 50ish% of the haul coming from the 1st weekend with less legs, and 30ish% of the haul coming from the 1st weekend with more legs. So with you using about 44%, I'd say that puts you on the pessimistic side. But hey, when it's American, that's your shtick anyway, right?
And I find it a bit contradictory that you talk about this weird "American wish fulfillment" when defending your theory that people elsewhere will have little interest, and yet even your estimate assigns 45% of its total gross to international? There are that many non-Americans buying a ticket to "American wish fulfillment"? The way you describe it, I'd think it would flop with so little interest outside America? There are plenty of American movies that do little or nothing overseas, why didn't you predict that for this one?
But please answer the question you dodged in my first reply, before you added in your silly shtick…
"So, if it makes 530, or your new max (600) that adds another 13% to "box office success," and it gets there without a dollar from China, what do you call it?"
I never claimed that it would be an all-time box office hit, like an incestuous 1bil+ Marvel movie, from a sequel to a 36 yr old movie -- but there are millions and millions of dollars of "hit" between merely a "box office success" and the Valhalla of those mega hits. You skipped all that, along with any mention of the loss of the lucrative China box office for Cruise and his action films.
I said before:
Well, it's effects on Americans and non-Americans seem to be quite different, that showed in box office numbers, apparently the percentage of it's international box office is much lower compared to other block buster movies.
It was over before it began, and you still dodged questions, but I knew you'd run away from the details. Your own claim sells 240mil worth of tix --somehow-- to non-Americans, disinterested b/c of your pet "American wish fulfillment" theory! How can that be? And, of course, leaves out the loss of the largest foreign box office, while pretending they don't come out for Cruise and his action films when that is so clearly false. You've introspected, taken your own personal view, and applied it to all foreigners while pretending that also explains why China blocked a movie. As though China said, "We're going to ban this b/c you wouldn't be interested." when they were initially a partner in the venture, b/c it's Cruise, b/c it's action, b/c it sells to their audience. How can you be so obtuse?
sharepessimistic. unrealistically so. there is no way this makes less than 300m. it would have to collapse.
the audience reaction to this is much stronger than ds2.
the proof of the pudding is in the eating, but i bet this holds much, much better than ds & has a stronger multiplier.
it's probably going to be at 270m at the end of this weekend.
i think it will end up around 380m domestic. & i think that may be pessimistic.
it's probably going to be at 290m domestic by the end of the weekend.
i think with that kind of hold, there's very little chance this doesn't make at least 400m domestic. that seems like the minimum now. some people are saying $500m is the minimum. that seems too aggressive to me.
we'll have to see what happens when that dinosaur movie takes over the big format screens next week.
catch this on imax while you can.
https://twitter.com/GiteshPandya/status/1533092789772242944
You are an idiot who pulls numbers out your ass. I bet you failed high school math.
First week is $205m. If it drops 60% 2nd week is $82m. Already reached your $290m!
Following weeks typically drop 50% so another $80 totals $370m.
I bet it only drops %40 in the long term, so more like $400m.
Top Gun: Maverick had a much higher domestic opening weekend and much better reviews and word of mouth than both POTC: At World's End and Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (I'm using those films for comparison since they were also Memorial Day weekend releases), and those movies ended with $309M and $317M in domestic box office, respectively, even after suffering over 50% drop offs in their second weekends. Is there any reason to believe Top Gun: Maverick won't easily surpass both films in the U.S.? I do see Top Gun: Maverick reaching $400M in the U.S.
shareThank you, that is the first serious discussion in this thread. Your choice of comparable movies are better than mine, due to the memory day opening, the one I used was the more recent black widow.
That is the whole point of this discussion.
Anyway using "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" as comparison the number reached $341 mil.
Using "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" the number is $399 mil.
Using the average of two, I think the more likely calculation is $370 mil, so the $400 mil is becoming more realistic.
I think your estimate is better than mine, likely closer to the final number.
Thanks. I admit that I focused my post on the U.S. because I don't really have a good guess how it will ultimately do internationally. My best guess is looking at how Mission: Impossible Fallout did internationally, which was $571M, but that was with a China gross of around $181M. Since Top Gun: Maverick won't get a China release, subtract that and we're looking at about $390M-$400M, which would be my best guess. I don't think the film has quite as broad an international appeal as Mission: Impossible but I think stronger word-of-mouth will counteract that for a similar gross minus China. I think it will ultimately get over $800M worldwide total (with over 50% of that coming from the U.S.) and will be Tom Cruise's highest grossing film.
shareLike I said before the numbers don't lie, it's international box office is likely to continue as the current percentage.
Neither Black Widow nor Dr Strange 2 got into Chinese market, but they both had a much higher international percentage.
So even the domestic number reaches $400 mil, the international box office is probably not going to pass $300 mil.
So the record of Fallout will probably be kept, though this movie is likely the highest domestic gross for Cruise. In the age of comic book movies that is still impressive.
Gee, that seems well past even your 600 max. Without any more box office receipts since your "likely" and "max" prediction yesterday, why the sudden allowance for another 100mil more past MAX? That's 110 past 290, and 60 past 240. If that's the case, you'd be using up most of your 70 mil max wiggle room on intl alone! How can that be? Is it b/c you're worried about being way off now?
Maybe those non-Americans will see it for other reasons, beyond "American wish fulfillment" -- just like YOU did. You're a prime example of more interest coming from someone, who, by your own assessment of non-Americans, should be less interested. And with the anti-American sentiment you exhibited here at every turn, you should not have been interested at all -- but you were.
I guess the ignore button is designed for low life internet stalkers like you.
shareI thought you were already gone? Didn't you say "this is the end of it for me" yesterday? But you reply again. I guess another prediction went off the rails, huh?
I'll make a prediction about you. When it surpasses your domestic prediction, and people here point that out, you're going to get angrier and blame "Ugly Americans" for propping up a movie that YOU, a non-American and anti-American, came out to see in its opening week, of course.
Oh wait, you already laid the excuse groundwork a few hours ago...
Not impossible, but 360 is just very optimistic. Then again I am not American, so can't really predict how strong the American jingoism is. I think that is the reason why an average movie to me can perform like that in US.
Another thing you were right about is that this movie does have more legs than others, it looks like domestic box office exceeding $400 mil, and even $800 mil worldwide, are becoming a possibility.
shareFace it, this movie is more of an American wish fulfillment, which does not really appeal to people of other countries, at least not that much.
Numbers don't lie, but I guess a lot of you are unwilling to see it.