"People won't (rise up). And that's why the U.S. is soon to be a former superpower, China being the new one. It was predicted back in 2000 and that's exactly where we're heading. I would throw in the EU too if it wasn't for the fact that the union is doomed to fail. "
The EU in its current form is certainly a mess, but it'll just re-organize, and the new EU would definitely be a superpower. The manufacturing and tech-driven economies of north-central-eastern Europe are already heavily integrated as it is, with Germany as the de facto center, and their only practical direction is to continue as such- they'd never be economically viable if split up (integration is the only way they can keep par with China, basically).
I worked in Europe for a decent stretch, and your instincts are right, they definitely have their act together. Even as the US and Britain get more feudalistic, Europe and eastern Asia go in the opposite direction. And the Germans and surrounding countries weren't stupid enough to outsource their tech and manufacturing, they've held on to it and so they'll be able to ride out these economic storms better.
A reconstituted EU would probably just modify the currency regime to make sure that laggards (like Greece, Britain and Ireland), messed up by corruption and an elite that refuses to pay taxes or support the country, either stay out of the EU or use a "Euro-2" that they can devalue until they get their act together. Meanwhile, the manufacturing powerhouses, with Germany and the Scandinavians, Dutch, Belgiums, Poland, Czech Republic and that region, would stay on the "Euro-1", with tighter regulations of banks and a healthier middle-class. That's more or less happening anyway, it'll vary only around the margins basically, and the core EU very much is a superpower already.
Though I'd agree that China will be the strongest power once US power fades, they just have too much going for them and a more sensible economy that doesn't allow such ridiculous concentration of wealth, and focuses more on real goods and science. Fading US power may actually be a good thing for us, it'll help us to re-focus on the basics instead of this stupid feudalism we currently have, get rid of this legal bribery in the form of lobbyists, maybe adopt a more Europe form of democracy that's more reasoned rather than this rabid bickering where nothing gets done. The US actually had a smart model of government in previous eras like the 50s and right after the revolution that even Europe and other countries have adopted, but we went downhill in the 1980's and it's only gotten worse since.
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prakashsant7
13 years ago
I'd add that Spain and Italy might actually qualify for the "Euro-1" group in a re-organized EU, as their economies can be actually very resilient. Despite the corruption in Italy's government (which is getting reformed), Italy has a rather thriving export base, and Spain in particular has a pretty strong export profile and competitive companies, plus low individual debt in both cases. So they don't have the manufacturing or tech level of north-center Europe, but they might still be grouped with them (they're certainly wrongly lumped together as PIGS by the media, when each situation is different).
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