How did the Momentum Shift?/Why did they think they had a chance against the Saviors?
I don't fully understand two things, but they are related, and seem somewhat contradictory to me. First, how did the momentum shift so much to the Saviors? Obviously they were able to break out, but even before they broke out, the AKH (Alexandria, Kingdom, Hilltop) Alliance seemed to be doing pretty well because:
1. Some time had passed between the battle at Alexandria and while the it can be assumed that the Saviors were preparing for battle (obtaining/moving big guns, etc.), the AKH had equal time to prepare as well.
2. They were able to take out several of the Savior's lookouts with no repercussions.
3. They lead assaults on three Savior Outposts doing well, even if you count the losses incurred on Ezekiel's team.
4. They lead a convoy all the way to the Sanctuary relatively unopposed, spraying bullets at the Sanctuary with absolutely no return fire, and later leading a herd of walkers to surround the Sanctuary.
5. After surrounding the Sanctuary with walkers, they were able to position snipers around the Sanctuary with relative ease and monitor the Sanctuary at their leisure. This may make sense as they had better positions in the surrounding buildings, but it seemed like the Sanctuary would have decent positions for counter-snipers too.
6. The Kingdom was hit hard in the open field by the big guns, but these guns were later accidentally destroyed by Rick and Daryl.
Now obviously, everything turned around when Eugene figured out a way to eliminate the herd, but I don't see how once the herd was eliminated how the Kingdom, the convoy from the Hilltop, and Alexandria could be caught so off guard. Did they simply underestimate the number of soldiers inside the Sanctuary or the outposts they didn't account for? I just don't know how the elimination of the herd resulted in such a swift reversal unless you account for the lack of leadership from Ezekiel who basically became withdrawn, and lack of leadership from Rick, who decided talking to crazy people and baking in an oven made more sense than being beside his people at a pivotable moment.