I don't know how valid a comparison Joker 2 is to Wicked. Did Ann Selzer predict Joker 2 would be a box office success? All the critics I know, and pretty much every article I remember, predicted it would fail.
Being a musical was tertiary at best to what defines Joker 2, and I believe many who saw it were unaware until they watched it that it even was one. Its failure probably had nothing to do with it being a musical.
Unlike Joker 2, which is an R-rated sequel to an unexpected hit, and a film that had no real built-in audience, Wicked is the exact sort of film that succeeds at the box office.
It's a kid's movie. Look at the top 25 grossing films of 2024 so far. 8 are outright kid's movies, and at least 4 more are made for kids and grownups alike.
It has a massive built-in audience. 65 million people have seen Wicked, and it has grossed over $5 billion. Nearly all of those people are likely to want to see the movie, plus millions more who never go to musicals due to cost or geography, but have long been curious about the movie.
Lastly, it seems to have captured the public's attention. It seems now that most people only go to the movies once or twice per year, and when they do it's to see the film that everyone else is seeing. Like Barbie last year, Wicked seems poised to be that movie.
Maybe not? I am basing this 100% on observation. I've never seen the musical version of Wicked, and have zero interest in the film version.
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BKB (9878)
6 days ago
I used Ann Selzer as an example to how everyone bend at the knee for this woman and her predictions and Poll Numbers like the Media and it blew up in her face and I think whatever numbers are being projected for WICKED: The MOVIE should be reeled in a bit and I do believe moviegoers have grown weary of Identity Politics in these movies, but we'll see how well it does. It'll make $$$$ but not as much as some may think
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FilmBuff (7234)
6 days ago
I'd never heard of her, and thought she might be a movie critic, but I Googled her and see that she is a political pollster.
I know next to nothing about the film, and am only basing my post on what I read about the long lines and general anticipation for the film, and how both Wicked and Gladiator 2 open on the same day, and are both expected to have big weekends.
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FilmBuff (7234)
21 hours ago
It's tracking for a $117 million opening weekend, so it's far from a flop. We'll see where it ends up, but with good word of mouth and positive reviews it could end up doing quite well.
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