it might do. It appears to have passed the Production Budget x 2 milestone and Robert Rodriguez + James Cameron pack a pretty hefty punch. I didn't love this film but I'd go watch a sequel just to see what happens next.
shareIt failed to make bank.
It made most of its money overseas where the studio takes way less of a cut than domestic, especially when distribution companies step in, and especially, especially in China.
$100 million from China, studio only gets 25% or less from that. Less than 25% if some of the box office takings disappear, which has been prevalent in the past with China, as many news reports have confirmed, and if Fox used a distribution company. Box office mojo doesnt show that info for China which is kinda strange.
It needs way more than Production x2 when the money comes from overseas because the studio isnt getting that juicy 50% cut from domestic box office. Then theres marketing on top, wordwide mrketting costs a lot of money, now add a massive country like China to spend extra bucks to market to, then each countries government takes a cut (China allows 25%), then distribution companies (FOX did not distribute in every country).
There are many many factors why 2x production is not a good number, without factoring in marketing.
Thats 2x domestic box office giving 50%, which ONLY covers production costs, NOT marketing on top, not overseas cuts. Thats why predictions of making bank always have wildly different goalposts.
For Alita it was 400-500 Million. Thats a whole 100 million difference. Ill let you think for yourself as to why (tip: overseas box office gives less to the studio)
It failed to make green, it made red.
You may be right - I just don't know. I've got in to this discussion with others who tell me Box Office Mojo figures are inflation adjusted and allow for foreign percentages. If you're right, you're right and there won't be a sequal. If you're wrong than maybe - guess we'll have to wait and see.
shareSo if Box office mojo adjusts for the 25% or less in China and downplays the overall figure.
That China $100 million. is really $400 million?
So all those adjusted box offices Alita could have made $1 Billion?
So Avengers Endgame really made well over $5 Billion at the box office but only brought in $2.7 Billion to Disney?
So those people would say BOX OFFICE mojo collected all the exact takings the studio collects and deflated the actual BOX OFFICE takings to adjust?
Does Box office Mojo adjust exact amounts for all the stolen takings week by week, dollar by dollar from China?
Laughable.
Quite possibly and, I grant you, counterintuitive. But in my ignorance I'm content to wait and see.
shareI don't like to be the contrarian for the sake of it, but I'm betting it WILL get a sequel.
The only reason Disney gets a bite of the Avatar sequel pie is because of them buying 20th Century Fox so get distribution rights.
Disney will be keen to keep James Cameron happy, and i'm betting as part of the sweetener, they'll happily greenlight a sequel or allow 20th Century Fox to do it (fact fans: Alita was 20th Century Foxs last truly independent release before being bought by Disney).
Why would they care whether Cameron is happy or not, they already own the movies he already made at Fox. I don' t think Cameron has made a decent movie in over a decades so why would they care about a past his prime director?
shareSo, a question for you.
Do you think Disney want to release those Avatar sequels, or do you think they'll pass?
As for him being past his prime, this is the same director that made Titanic and Avatar, you know, those box office MONSTERS. Sure, you can say "but they were not great", but the likes of Disney will simply see Camerons ability to make dollars, and I think they might just be a bit more enthusiastic and interested in keeping him happy.
Disney + show
shareAccording to boxoffice mojo it only made 85million in the US but it made 320million abroad most of that in china.
so a total of 404 million dollars. this movie IS a success.
"when you consider the marketing and distribution costs, estimates suggest Alita’s total cost runs closer to $500 million — a figure the movie is never likely to reach."
https://www.hitc.com/en-gb/2019/02/18/alita-battle-angel-movie-box-office-figures-budget-success/