If Hicox had thrown up the German three do you think Hellstrom would have been appeased?
Would he have left them alone or found another way to pursue and act on his instincts?
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They were screwed either way in my opinion.
If Hicox hadn't thrown up the wrong "3," Hellstrom would've eventually left them alone, but absolutely for certain 100% he would continue investigating this Piz Palü guy. He'd almost certainly notice "Lt. (from) Frankfurt" was actually Hugo Stieglitz at some point. And Bridget von Hammersmark would've been under close surveillance from then on.
It actually worked out for the better -- the theater assassination succeeded because Hellstrom was killed before he could start investigating outside the basement
just watched it again and am convinced Hellstrom never bought the Piz Palu thing. He joined them at the table and got the game going to confirm his suspicions waiting for Hicoz to give himself away somehow
Likely the whole Basterds plan was moot since Marcel and Shoshanna were successful in their separate plot burning the cinema down. They just made it a little more certain