That this red marxist PoS is a prick of the highest order, and so are his red marxist cronies that sit alongside him in the House of Commons.
I predict a one term Labour government.
shareDepends on how the Conservatives recover.
shareIf you look at the last 50 or so years, it follows a predictable pattern.
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Yeah. I don't think a one-term Labour government is fanciful even with that massive majority. It was the Tory vote that collapsed, rather than the Labour vote swelling. It's certainly possible, given the extent of the problems we face as a country.
Personally, I think the Tories are going to make all the wrong moves and still be an unelectable mess in five years' time. But you never know.
Labour vote tanked heavily in many safe seats due to Labour voters either not turning out, or voting Green or workers party (puke), and there was huge Labour-Lib Dem tactical voting in the South West. More than usual.
I think what it really shows is how inflated usual majorities really are. When Tony Blair romped to victory, the Green Party was a non-entity. There was no Workers Party, or Independent candidates angry about Gaza.
Yeah. FPTP throws up some strange, unrepresentative results. There was certainly a time when a 170-80 majority locked you in for two elections. But that was back when the voting blocks for Tories and Labour were much more static. People are much more likely to switch their votes now, vote tactically or just stay at home.
2029 certainly isn't a done deal for Labour. But I personally think, a) five years will be too short a time for the electorate to forgive and forget, and b) they're going to select Badenoch -- and that's just... no.
I mean I think it's just simple arithmetic. In 1997/2001 you really only voted for Labour, Conservatives or Lib Dem. In 2024 you could vote for Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dem, Greens or Reform. Or in some parts of the country, Workers Party.
That will necessarily eat away at the main parties vote.
>2029 certainly isn't a done deal for Labour. But I personally think, a) five years will be too short a time for the electorate to forgive and forget, and b) they're going to select Badenoch -- and that's just... no.
Eh, I saw somewhere an infographic that a lot of the Tory MPs are now kinda centrist (for their party). Hence why Braverman is basically burning up.
Yeah. The parliamentary party is more centrist. The membership is still the same membership though. So if they're given a choice, they'll go for Kemi Badenoch -- just as they went for Johnson and Truss. (Really, these people are so out of touch even with Conservative voters they shouldn't be allowed to decide anything ever again.)
And I think Badenoch's combative style loses in 2029. She's certainly nowhere near as much of a liability as Braverman, but she still hasn't got the memo about those US-style culture wars being roundly rejected at the ballot box.
But maybe she'll be different in a leadership role. Five years is a long time.
It's also possible that if a wingnut gets the position by the membership that the centrist wing might break off into a "One Nation" party.
shareThe feeling I get, is that the masses aren’t treating this as ‘the second coming’, but rather standing there with their arms folded saying, ‘ok, impress us’. The honeymoon period will be short.
shareYes, I think that's exactly right. It's not '97. And Keir Starmer is no Tony Blair. There's evidently no great enthusiasm for Labour (even, frankly, among natural Labour supporters). People just felt they couldn't possibly be any worse than the other lot. It was, I think, more a vote for competence and a return to 'normal politics' as it was for anything else.
And, yes, with that kind of 'soft' support, it can slip away pretty quickly through policy failure, economics, or just get derailed by events.
I still think they're in for ten years -- because I think the Tories are a basket case that'll take two terms to fix. But then again, people had that same feeling when Johnson won in 2019 against Corbyn. And look what a mess they made of that in the last five years. So one-term and the Conservatives getting the show back on the road is entirely possible.
Johnson is not Starmer though. Starmer has to be the blandest guy ever to be PM. Johnson was incapable of not causing personal scandals. I feel like had he not had all those pointless unforced scandals, he might have been competitive with Starmer in 2024.
Also Corbyn being Johnsons opponent in 2019 flattered his votes a lot.
All true. Johnson was unsuited to high office in a way Starmer is not. Pretty much any other leader (except Liz Truss) would have made it through to 2024 in much better shape.
2019 was almost 2024 in reverse. It was more about the collapse of the Labour vote (due to Corbyn's unpopularity and undeliverable policies) than it was about a surge in Conservative support. Also, it was an election campaign held almost on a single issue -- Brexit -- which won't happen again in 2029.
Hell if they skipped Truss and went straight to Sunak, the Tories might have been in much better shape to challenge Starmer.
And at least in 2019 Corbyn didn't collapse the Labour vote quite to the extent of the Tories. They were in a much more recoverable position.
Yup. Liz Truss destroyed them. Sunak never stood a chance, even if he had better political instincts.
Apparently, when she was a minister, they used to refer to her as 'The Human Hand-Grenade'... which she took as a compliment. Because she's an idiot.
He's wetter than water.
shareThe Tories overstayed their welcome (just like the last time). Labour will unfortunately screw everything up (just like the last time). The Tories will clear up the mess (just like the last time) and then overstay their welcome.
Rinse and repeat.
Well, see, I don't agree with that characterisation at all. So now is the time to call each other evil and fling poop at each other like monkeys for the next two hours.
Oh, no, I've been hanging out with Americans for too long. Let's not do that.
They have a very ‘which end of the boiled egg do you crack’ point of view on things, whereas my friends and I roll our eyes and take the piss out of the entire political spectrum.
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Yes. I like to sit in the pub, putting the world to rights with friends who don't agree with me. That's the British way. We lost that a bit over Brexit. But I think we've got it back -- and whatever happens, we need to keep hold of it... because just look what's happening over there!
I’m an equal opportunity piss taker - they all get it in equal measure.
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Typical centre-left European-style social democrat, actually. Admittedly, farther to the left than anything you have in mainstream US politics but that's because you essentially still have Whigs versus Tories as your main political debate over there. Most of the rest of the world moved away from that dynamic over a century ago thanks to the Labour / Trades Union movement.
But hardly Marxist in any meaningful sense.
I haven’t heard anyone mention the Whigs since my O Level history exam, lol.
shareWell, they evolved into the Liberal Party, didn't they? And then Labour replaced them in that two-party dynamic. And then they eventually became the Liberal Democrats.
I think people make an error when they equate Labour to Democrats. The US Democrats share more in common philosophically with our Liberal Democrats than they do with our Labour Party. At least traditionally. But the idea that Keir Starmer is a raging Marxist is obviously a bit silly.
He may be a fan of the Marx brothers but that's no reason to hate on him
shareI think him and is slag Rayner are probably the most demonic next to doris and everybody else that have allowed and caused mahem over the last four years.
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