Annette Bening will not win the Oscar this year.

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don't count her out yet. It's gonna be an interesting show.

Honestly anything can happen Oscar night, sure Natalie Portman is the hot favourite but the Academy likes to occasionally upset...

The Social Network/David Fincher/Annette Bening/Colin Firth/Christian Bale/Jacki Weaver

I think Annete deserves the Oscar, athough Natalie Portman's performance was excellent.

Still, Annette IS the Sentimental Favorite and like someone else wisely pointed out, she did not win the Oscar for "American Beauty" even though she won the SAG Award.

If there is a category in the SAG Awards that sometimes does not match the same category in the Oscar, it's Best Actress.

Meryl Streep won the SAG recently, and was nominated for an Oacar and did not win.

I think the Academy will want to "compensate" for Annette not winning for "American Beauty", which many people, myself included, feel she deserved.

Natalie is very young and many may feel that her chance will come again.

For Annette, it may not be that easy if she does not win, since this is her 4th overall nomination, her 3rd as Best Actress.

Of course, like someone also wisely said, ANYTHING can happen at the Oscars! I hope Annette wins.

Another category notorious for upsets is Best Supporting Actress; Marisa Tomei was the Dark Horse in 1992 when she won for "My Cousin Vinny" and the competition was fierce, although her performance is Oscar-worthy. When Tilda Swinton won, she was also the Dark Horse, so who knows?

I think Annette's performance in TKAA is just as complex and just as much a tour de force, as Portman's, albeit in a more low-key way. Also, the Academy obviously liked "The Kids Are All Right" and perhaps will want to give the film at least one Oscar. It is unlikely it will win for Screenplay or Best Picture, so giving the Best Actress award to Annette for her excellent performance here is a way to honor the film as well.

We will know soon enough!

Sentimental Oscars are an effing joke. A deserving actress shouldn't lose an Oscar just because someone else has been waiting longer. You can never predict the future. Any of these actresses nominated might never be nominated again.

That is true but it is a fact that Oscars have been awarded "for sentimental reasons" for years. Examples: Elizabeth Taylor in 1960 (she had pneumonia just before the Oscar nominations and almost died), Geraldine Page in 1985, Paul Newman in 1986, Jessica Tandy in 1989. Not saying it's fair, just saying it happens.