Oscar predictions

What do you think is going to get nominated or win at the Oscars? Here are some of my predictions in select categories:

Best picture
predicted winner: Nomadland
other likely nominees: Mank, The Trial of the Chicago 7, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Promising Young Woman, Da 5 Bloods, Soul
other possibilities: The Father, One Night in Miami, Minari, New of the World

Best director:
predicted winner: Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)
other likely nominees: David Fincher (Mank), Aaron Sorkin (The Trial of the Chicago 7), George C. Wolfe (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)
other possibilities: Regina King (One Night in Miami…), Spike Lee (Da 5 Bloods), Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Florian Zeller (The Father)

Best actor:
predicted winner: Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
other likely nominees: Anthony Hopkins (The Father), Gary Oldman (Mank), Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Delroy Lindo (Da 5 Bloods)
other possibilities: Tom Hanks (News of the World), Kingsley Ben-Adir (One Night in Miami…), LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)

Best actress:
predicted winner: Frances McDormand (Nomadland)
other likely nominees: Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman), Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of Woman), Meryl Streep (The Prom)
other possibilities: Sophia Loren (The Life Ahead), Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holiday)

Best supporting actor:
predicted winner: Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
other likely nominees: Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), Paul Raci (Sound of Metal), Leslie Odom Jr (One Night in Miami…), Mark Rylance (The Trial of the Chicago 7)
other possibilities: Chadwick Boseman (Da 5 Bloods), Bill Murray (On the Rocks), David Strathairn (Nomadland)

Best supporting actress:
predicted winner: Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)
other likely nominees: Amanda Seyfried (Mank), Olivia Colman (The Father), Ellen Burstyn (Pieces of a Woman), Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
other possibilities: Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)

Adapted screenplay:
predicted winner: Nomadland
other likely nominees: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, The Father, I’m Thinking of Ending Things, One Night in Miami…
other possibilities: News of the World, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

Original screenplay:
predicted winner: The Trial of the Chicago 7
other likely nominees: Promising Young Woman, Mank, Soul, Minari
other possibilities: Never Rarely Sometimes Always, On the Rocks, Da 5 Bloods, Judas and the Black Messiah