A new COVID-19 forecast predicts more than 400,000 deaths (doubled from now) in the US by the end of 2020. (source: https://news.yahoo.com/a-new-covid-19-forecast-predicts-more-than-400000-deaths-by-the-end-of-2020-will-the-fall-wave-really-be-that-big-215402962.html)
People around the world, are you physically, mentally, and financially prepared for the fall wave?
Not likely. US is probably quite close to immunity herd by now. Death rate is decreasing even though the temperatures are going colder.
Back in March and using the Diamond Princess as a model, I predicted between 200,000 and 300,000 deaths. Right now it's 200,000, and probably there will be about 50,000 more. I don't think it's gonna make 300,000.
What percentage of the US population do you think has been infected thus far, and what number do you think needs to be infected to reach herd immunity status?
shareNobody really knows that. There's theories that say that about 60% need to be infected, other say that about a 20% is enough. You see, the margin is huge.
And we don't know neither how much people are immune. Serologic tests show a low level of immunity in most countries. However, it seems that immunity can be reached in different ways that are not considered in those tests. That means that much more people could actually be immune. Again, the margin is huge.
Perhaps the necessary percentage is high, and there's more immune than we think, or perhaps the necessary percentage is low. But one thing is sure: deaths are consistently decreasing in all countries, both in north and south hemispheres.
The only country at risk could be China, since they successfully stopped the pandemic. That means that out of Wuhan, there's almost no immunity.
I'm ready to surf that wave! Watch me shoot the curl of that low mortality rate.
You on the other hand. You will probably catch it from the person delivering food to your bunker. I hope you have a few years supply of medicine down there. Better stay down there for 5 years to be sure. We'll see ya then.
Yeah, those forecasts were way off in the beginning, well below what they were predicting. We can thank China for all this.
shareI know. Let's hope what happens in Florida stays in Florida.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/florida-scientist-said-she-was-fired-for-refusing-to-manipulate-covid-19-data/ar-BB14jG4Y
https://keyt.com/news/national-world/2020/09/02/florida-cuts-ties-with-lab-over-failure-to-report-75000-coronavirus-tests/
As far as concered, a second wave has already hit this summer after governors decided to reopen too quickly and people were running around refusing to wear masks. Hence the spikes in many states!
Maybe if we're lucky, the "next wave" won't be as bad as it was during late early July - mid August.
Unlike the US, Australia is one of the countries that managed to keep the first wave under control. As we know, Australia is in the southern hemisphere, and its dry and cold season begins in June and lasts until August. Here's the second wave in Australia: https://www.google.com/search?q=australia+covid+cases
It's obvious to me that we are facing a huge challenge as fall is coming.
Don't forget to buy more useless masks.
shareYes, there are a lot of useless masks on sale. Suppose you're wearing a mask that filters only 30% of the virus，then you can still get the virus and spread it. So what difference does it make? I guess that's why experts keep telling us that wearing a mask alone is not safe enough, we still need to practice social distancing and avoid group gatherings. I am no expert, so I don't hesitate to give you an analogy：What difference would it make if you take 3 sleeping pills instead of a bottle? In both cases, you will fall asleep yet you probably won't die with 3 pills. Have you ever heard of live vaccine? It has to be strictly limited dose.
shareYep. I'm ready. Just need to stock up on a year's worth of toilet paper and rice first.