How many $1 billion dollar movies will there be next year?

In possibilities:

Pirate Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales
Untitled Disney live-action fairy tale
Justice League

Damn, 2017 might be the first year where the top 10 highest grossing films could all reach $1 billion.

TEAM CAP

For certain:
Star Wars 8

Most Likely:
Furious 8
Despicable Me 3

50/50 shot:
Beauty and the Beast
Transformers 5
Thor 3

Probably not, but possible:
Pirates 5
GOTG 2
Spider-Man
Justice League
King Kong

That's my view of it.



I'd say Thor's chances are considerably lower than 50/50 unless they dump half of the Avengers team into the film, and the same goes for Beauty and the Beast too. I'd say that film is looking more at Maleficent/Cinderella business than Jungle Book. I think Pirates of the Caribbean certainly has a 50/50 shot: it's a proven franchise performer overseas, and there has been huge Chinese growth since the last one (and On Stranger Tides did decent business in China).

The Beauty and the Beast trailer broke Star Wars' record for most views in 24 hours. It's going to be big.

TEAM CAP

They released on amazon a 25 year's anniversary edition, could be interesting to see it's sales ranking.

I really don't buy the correllation between Youtube views and box office. The trailer for Fifty Shades of Grey was the most watched of 2014 but it only translated to half a billion at the box office, and the trailer for Cinderella got five times as many hits as Maleficent in the first 24 hours, but didn't earn five times as much. Youtube hits reflect the changing landscape of computing (tablets/mobile phones/better internet access in the developing world/less restrictive internet access in places like China) more than anything else.

It must have a good correlation, 50 shades was a giant success and

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_viewed_online_videos_in_first_24_hours

All the movies that appear on that list excluding beauty and the beast did over a billion.

You need to correct for the target audience, and some factor, but online activity is probably correlated with box office.