In hindsight, I think Nintendo would be bought by Sony. Nintendo ditched Sony because they made a grave mistake in the contract, if they didn't ditch them they'd certainly go under in a few years.
Without the Sony-Nintendo fallout, Nintendo games on CD would be exactly like what PS1 games looked like, just with more Mario and no Wipeout.
Sega, on the other hand, I don't think there'd be any difference. They'd still go third-party because they had no clue on making home video games. All they really know was arcade games and as we know today, arcade games didn't survive. I owned the Dreamcast at the time and their games, while had their own charm, lacked the "full-blown-ness" of true home video games should be.
Also, they had a rift between the Japanese company and the American company. Nintendo and Sony had little importance on the outcome of their internal conflict. Sega would still going down no matter what.
That means Microsoft would still be coming through the suicidal demise of Sega. Xbox was basically almost a Microsoft-backed Sega console. The Dreamcast was already backed by Microsoft via the use of WindowsCE. Without Sega lost the battle, I don't think Microsoft could survive the onlslaught of PS2, the greatest console of all time.
But then again, without the betrayal of Nintendo, it's hard to predict what the PS2 would come out to be. The PS2 was what it was partly driven by the desire to dish revenge to Nintendo.
Sega Dreamcast was actually the better console, at least tech wise. And it beat the launch of PS2 a full year. Sega's mastery of electronics, computer circuitry and graphics technology combined was unparalled at the time. And it was their do or die moment, so they gave it all.
But Sony had their mind in more than games, the PS2 was supposed to be everything. It plays DVDs, it has a hard disk slot, etc. The CPU, dubbed The Emotion Engine, was supposed to challenge Intel for world domination, not just videogames. The hype surrounding the PS2 was throgh-the-roof. It was not a game console, it was a supercomputer!
The weapon of mass destruction for anything not PS2 was the fact that the PS2 was "two-ninety-nine." Sony deliberately took enormous amount of loss in every console sold just to gain even more marketshare which they already had from the success of PS1, because Sony really did believe that the PS2 was everything. Everything.
It'd be hard to believe this would be the stance they took if they're still with Nintendo, a traditional through-and-through toys company.
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