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So what I think happened is this:
Paul was in the Oak Room (that’s why he has a coaster from it) and met or overheard drunk Thomas Coward talk about Paul and probably disclose some info he shouldn’t have disclosed. Steve then reach out to his ‘wrong crowd’ to tell them he found who ratted Jimmy Thompson out. The coaster he brings with him, just like the ring Paul wears, has nothing to do with the story of how he got it. That’s how you ‘goose the truth’. Steve made up that story to buy time so that the killer could get to Paul’s open bar (past business hours) finding him disarmed and deliver Jimmy Thompson’s message. Steve sold Paul out to get rid of his debt and retrieve his father’s ashes. That is the only logical theory I can come up with.
What about Stelli. Well, Stelli just like Richard, will arrive at the bar to find another man behind it instead of Paul and will most likely suffer the same faith of Richard. Steve gets around paying another of his debts.
Alright. This movie is good but, it has a few flaws that are brushed off as ‘that’s not what the movie is about’ or ‘we don’t need to know that’ which make this movie, in my opinion, a good but not great movie.
So, Steve cannot be the killer. Of course we could argue that forever but, if you want to believe in the stories said in the movie, he cannot be it for one simple reason : why would Steve go to the wrong bar to kill the wrong bartender?
However, Steve is in it with the killer. This is easily deduced by the fact that, when Paul goes downstairs to get the tackle box, Steve makes sure the baseball bat disappears.
So, we know that Steve hang out with the wrong crowd, according to Paul’s story about his dad. We know Steve owes Paul and another dude a lot of money - we do not know why. We know Paul is not going to give Steve the tackle box until he gets his money back. So we can assume Steve went to the bar to get the urn without paying Paul. How is he going to do that? He is gonna pay Paul with a story. A story that in the end turns out to be a proportionate payment as Paul, in the end, hands him the urn.
However you play the stories in the movie they do not make sense which leads me to think that none of that happened. The whole story about the decapitated bartender was just a made up story Steve told Paul to show Paul that he knew something about him that was worth more than the debt he owed him. Steve knew Paul ratted out a dangerous person and by telling Paul, he gets his urn.
We also know that most likely Paul dies because, in the beginning, we see two men fighting behind a bottle of beer and we can safely assume that one is the killer and the other one is Paul.
Why would Steve want Paul dead beats me. He cannot think Paul was responsible for his dad’s alcoholism, that would be like blaming Toyota for a deadly car crash. I think that Steve just sold Paul out as it was a way for him to get his stuff from him and get rid of his debts.