How many Oscars will it win?

0, this years oscars is all about black people

Well now that The Father had (deservedly) won Adapted Screenplay, this can realistically take a maximum of three, unless Frances pulls it off against the odds.

Besides this film winning Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actress Oscars, it also received Academy Awards noms for Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Editing, and Best Cinematography. Had this film not been showered with some of the highest accolades in the industry, I would not be anywhere as harsh as I'm about to be. That being said, I'm baffled as to why the Academy is awarding filmmaking that ain't Oscar bait, isn't visionary nor groundbreaking by any stretch but is instead nominating films which don't go out on a limb and appear to be playing it safe in order not to offend anyone (i.e., Amazon, proponents of corporate capitalism/income inequality), which translates to boring.

While McDormand is one of the best actresses working in Hollywood today, her past performances alone should not justify her winning a Best Actress Oscar for portraying a fictional character who exhibited no character arc--her character starts off and ends the movie as basically the same character--a one-note performance and not a layered by any stretch. No hero's journey here--about the only journey in this film involved literally driving around in her van from one dead end job to the next while meeting up with her support group comprised of other van dwellers. My idea of a role with a considerable character arc was Carey Mulligan's performance in Promising Young Woman, which was in my opinion the best actress performance of 2020 bar none in large part because of the tremendous range she exhibited in this film. Mulligan should have won the Best Actress Oscar.

I'm curious as to who taught Chole Zhao how to write a feature film screenplay as she appears to have broken every screenwriting rule in the book by not including several of the ingredients that great films have in common--thus the reason this film came off to me as more akin to a documentary like you mentioned. And obviously, Academy Awards voters and professional film critics don't seem to care.

One of the first rules of screenwriting is to show not tell--and what this film predominantly seemed to do was tell not show--as in dialogue driven talking heads with little to show for it. If this film was based on an original screenplay that would be one thing, but because it was adapted for the screen, one would expect the screenwriter to make an effort to let the characters reveal their emotions and thoughts through actions and images instead of by words, which is the lazy way of crafting an adapted script.

This story had almost no real tension, suspense and conflict to drive the storyline forward, no plot, no satisfying plants and subsequent payoffs to reward viewers who paid attention throughout the entirety of the film, no formidable antagonist who challenged the mettle, resolve and intestinal fortitude of the protagonist (the only example I could think of was a concerned woman knocking on the side of McDormand's character's van and kindly questioning her reason for parking the van on her private property), it was very slow paced and did not build up to a satisfying climax, no believable chemistry between any of the characters, no real purpose for the main character other than to find gig work/seasonal employment (even here this film could have shown how companies exploited essential workers during the pandemic) and form superficial/dead-end relationships with other nomads, bland backstory, no emotional changes executed throughout the film, none of the major characters transformed their lives in a noticeable way, no genuine moral premise, no witty dialogue, no do-or-die, all-is-lost point in the film where the stakes are raised forcing the main character to make extremely difficult choices, nothing I would constitute as visual art--okay I'll admit the cinematography was breathtaking when examined in it's entirely but nothing really stood out visually that would be forever burned in my cerebral cortex, nothing original which I haven't seen done better in previous films, and no true portrayal of human poverty and suffering, they could have at least capitalized on her vulnerability to make us care about her plight, a woman-against-the-world archetype to root for, which should have been the underlying theme of this film.

Can anyone explain why this film was even nominated for a Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar, least to say, winning Academy Awards for Best Picture and Best Director?