Production Budget 200m?
So, will it break even?
share$200 million is an insane budget.
I know that, in the old days, the rule of thumb was that a film typically needed to make twice its production budget to break even. But now that more and more of the overall gross is coming from international markets, I've heard these days it's more like 3x the production budget.
If that is true for Hobbs & Shaw, and it needs $600 million to break even, then I say no, it's not going to make it. I just don't think it has the juice to get there. Universal probably thought it would do the same kind of numbers the mainline F&F films will do and I think we see now that's not the case.
You need to account for the vastly increasing on-demand viewing and syndication as well, as this creates a far longer tail and makes box officer far less relevant than comentators want you to believe. Most of the movies hollywood accounting wants you to believe flopped end up profitable long term.
It still made 585 mil in box office though so even without that it made profit.