I feel like you don't really know the type of movies that get nominated. Oscar bait doesn't mean it's bad. Typically they are good.
1) You have to look at history.
2) Renown of writers/directors/actors
3) Budget
The last collaboration between Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Day Lewis was There Will be Blood, a highly cerebrated movie (for good reason). Another collab between PTA and DDL has been highly sought after ever since There Will be Blood.
Low budget movies that go through the indie circuit like Sundance typically have low chances of nominations with some exceptions. Lady Bird, for instance, had a low chance of nomination, but it grabbed enough public attention to get through. A masterpiece like The Killing of a Sacred Deer didn't get any nominations at all, to be expected.
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