MovieChat Forums > The Meg (2018) Discussion > OW estimate: $40m domestic, foreign twic...

OW estimate: $40m domestic, foreign twice that


Check back Sunday morning.

Should gross $400m, but budget $150m.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=wbeventfilm2018.htm

Domestic: $16,500,000 32.4%
+ Foreign: $34,500,000 67.6%
= Worldwide: $51,000,000 [Friday]

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Its a shame WB let the Budget Balloon so much...because The Meg is performing pretty good and its clear theres an audience for this film....

I dont see it grossing 400 M WW though..

Basically with a 40 Million Opening domestically, The Meg is Heading toward a 80 to 90 Million total....

The Meg is heading toward a 90 Million overseas debut...but 40 Million of That is coming from CHINA...which means The Meg is ONLY debuting to 50 Million with all its remaining markets.....

With 40 Million in China....that could lead to a 90 to 100 Million + total run.....

But With 50 Million in other markets, I dont see it making another 150 Million + that it would need to make...

Its Possible with Goods Legs....But I'm thinking its gonna end somewhere between 300 to 360 Million....

This movie was originally Greenlit on a Modest 60 Million dollar Budget, But WB Upped the Budget to 100 M+ after A director dropped out and a new director came on ....THen WB let the Budget Balloon to between 125 M to 178 M in Post Production....

Had WB kept this Budget in Check and Kept it between 60 to 100 Million.The Meg would be A Pretty Big HIt and almost certainly sequels would be getting greenlit Monday with its box office performance this weekend.but unfortunately the budget was just too large and it doesnt look like The Meg is gonna break even.

The Meg was co financed with a Company in China..Its Possible we could get a "Pacific Rim" Situation where, A Sequel gets greenlit With a different company, Pacific Rim 1 barely broke even, WB wanted no part of a sequel....But Pacific Rim 1 did very well in China with a 100 M+ gross in 2013...PR2 was Greenlit and Went forward SOLELY because of PR1s success it China, China box office was just starting to explode in 2013 and They thought if PR1 could make 100 M+ in 2013, a PR2 may be able to have a 200 M+ run in China in 2018....Legendary partnered with a different studio for the sequel.....

I could see something similar happening with The Meg and a sequel, box office results are encouraging....they definitely show there is an audience....

WB Will have no part in a sequel, but I could see The Studio in China, going forward With a sequel on a much smaller budget....

from what I understand WB and The China studio basically did a 50/50 split financing the film....

Lets assume The Meg cost an even 150 Million....that Means both studio put 75 Million ish in....

and BOth Put Marketing In, Lets add another 25 Million + each...

that means WB has around 100 Million in The Meg.....

Studios get 50% of box office domestically....so The Meg is heading toward 40 Million this weekend domestically....WB gets half of that which is 20 Million....But because WB CO financed it....they have to SPLIT that Half with China....So WBs ONLY getting 10 Million of the 40 Million its making this weekend....

If The Meg goes on to make 90 Million domestically.....WB gets Half which is 42.5 Million...which they then have to Spilt with China.....So WB is looking at no more than 25 Million from The Meg's domestic run....

The Meg is heading toward a 100 Million + run in China.....usually studios only get 25% of Box office in China....but because they made a deal....WB is looking at 40% in China...So WB May Make around 40 Million from The Megs run in China....

thats 65 Million total so far that WB could make to recoup thier 100 Million they spent....

they rest would have to come from all remaining overseas markets, which IMO is heading toward a 150 to 175 Million dollar Gross....

Studios usually get 40 to 45%.....But again WB then has to SPLIT that with China, so WB is looking at about 20% of 150 to to 175 Million which is 30 to 35 Million.....

Which then Puts WB at 95 to 100 MILLION Breaking Even.....

this is why the Break even Point is 400 Million +.....

Basically By Co financing WB risked LESS Money, But it becomes much more difficult to make that money back...

Bottom LIne... WB is looking at Breaking Even AT BEST.....and Spending 100 Million dollars to Literally Make NO MONEY is a horrible investment....

WB will not have anything to do with a sequel....But The Chinese company may want to go forward if they can make the sequel right and really Market it around China....right now Like PR1....The China Opening and 100 M+ total run is the best thing going for The Meg and The biggest selling point for going forward with a sequel...

The China Studio, could make a Sequel for around 50 Million.....release it in China to a 100 Million + run....Break even.....then Sell The distribution rights to a domestic release for 25 to 50 Million and that would be all profit....

when I first saw these box office results I thought I sequel was DEAD for The Meg....The more I think about it....I think a sequel is possible, Just WB's Involved Is DEAD...theres zero chance WB has anything to do with a Sequel after spending 100 Million on The Meg and Literally Making NO MONEY....

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especially with WB hiring a new President in Walter H. thats Main GOAL coming in Is to scale back BUDGETS(especially with The DCEU films)

If I had to pick now....I think there will be a sequel to The Meg....its just going to be a completely different sequel, financed by the Chinese studio or a studio that is going to make the film for a modest budget to play for a run in China.....

Theres no reason not to believe a sequel cant make 250 Million WW....

100 Million + in China
100 Million Ish for all remaining overseas markets...
and 50 Million ish domestically....

Some Studio out there that understands Budgets will do what WB could not do and make a sequel for a modest Budget....

If your a fan of The Meg.....It May not look good now....but there is actually pretty good reason to have HOPE for a sequel!

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Maybe if you didn't keep repeating the same thing in the same post all the time then your post wouldn't be so long dumb shit.

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Lol...here's billbrown once again talking about WB's "out of control" budgets so you would think that they owned the biggest money-losers of the year, right?

Wrong...that honor goes to Disney's A Wrinkle in Time and Solo.

Also, WB releases many low-moderate budgeted films that clean up in the profit area while Disney only seems to know EXPENSIVE.

Hey...you gotta be impressed with those geniuses at Disney when they greenlit Christopher Robin and watched it's budget rise to 75-90 million(depending on the source) when their last Winnie the Pooh film made all of 50 million worldwide in 2011.

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Hey...you gotta be impressed with those geniuses at Disney when they greenlit Christopher Robin and watched it's budget rise to 75-90 million(depending on the source) when their last Winnie the Pooh film made all of 50 million worldwide in 2011.

^^^

jumped the gun yet again...

first budget is between 70 to 75 Million....

second in another thread, You guaranteed the film wouldnt top 80 M domestically and Would NOT GET CLOSE to 100M domestically...

CR is currently at 85 M and will finish either at 100 M or VERY CLOSE.

Next at this point Disney Will at least break even, But probably make a 25 M+ profit on the film...SEE OTHER THREAD for EXPLANATION(the thread where you guaranteed CR would not top 80 M domestically....lololololol)

also you are talking about those Geniuses at Disney With 4 billion dollars films in the last 9 months right?

those Geniuses at Disney With the ONLY 4 films in the last 9 Months to gross over 600 Million domestically right?

those Geniuses at Disney who currently is destroying every other studio this year, and is currently #1 With 2.8 Billion + in Profit right?

those Geniuses at Disney who now has 18 of the 36 films that have grossed over 1 Billion dollars...

those Geniuses at Disney with 14....Billion dollar + films in the last 5 years.....and those Super Geniuses at WB who has ZERO in The Last 5 years

lol I mean come queen....

Disney is BULLETPROOF....

sure no studio is ever 100%....all studios have misses...But Disneys Misses are covered up BY BILLION dollar + HITS....

Disney has a 10 to 2 hits and Misses ratio(80%) over the last 5 years while WB is has been Literally sitting at 50% over the last 5 years

The SUCCESS Disney has had over the last 5 years is unmatched....If it makes you feel better to cling to the few Misses fine....Just know every one else is looking at MANY MASSIVE HITS

lol Disney has Been Number 1 in Studio Profits for 5 years in a row...setting RECORDS and re-breaking those records several times....(Edit ..or maybe 4 straight years and 5 out of 6 years at #1, I'm finding conflicting reports, no the less its total dominance that HAS TO KILL YOU)

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Hey Queen I see no reply to this Obliteration ABOVE where I pointed out Disneys 6 years reign of Dominance that quite simply has never been seen in Hollywood history before....

just wanted to add more pain....

Just read some New news and have more Dominance to ADD....

Turns out Disney Had The highest selling Blu Ray,DVD and Home Media of 2018 In The Last Jedi this year.....

buuuuuuuuuuuuuut it gets even worse....Disney Just didnt have the #1 selling Blu Ray of 2018.....Nope...

They Had #1....#2.....#3 .....and #4

lol thats right, Disney had the top 4 highest selling Blu Rays of 2018

lol just so you know those 4 films accounted for over 300 Million dollars in sales just from Blu Ray and DVD ....and of course thats not accounting for Digital Buys and The Money Disney Will make from selling the right to A TV station like FX, HBO, or Netflix

https://www.the-numbers.com/home-market/dvd-sales/2018

https://www.comicbookmovie.com/sci-fi/star_wars/star-wars-the-last-jedi-is-the-top-selling-blu-ray-release-of-2018-beating-black-panther-more-a163353

DEAR GOD....just did a quick search...If gets even worse for you queen...

In 2016, Disney had 4 of the 5 highest selling BLU RAYs and DVDs which accounted for over 430 Million in sales and again thats not accounting for Digital Buys and The Money Disney Will make from selling the right to A TV station like FX, HBO, or Netflix

In 2017, Disney ONCE AGAIN had 4 out of the 5 highest grossing BLU RAYs and DVDS that accounted for for over 350 Million in sales again thats not accounting for Digital Buys and The Money Disney Will make from selling the right to A TV station like FX, HBO, or Netflix



lol on a scale from 1 to 10....how much does this bother you..I Mean this has to KILL YOU....you spend all you time trying to come up with desperate and absurd ways to fight Disneys Box office dominance, and now you get blindsided by another Part of the game that Disney Is DOMINATING....

lol I bet you never even thought about about this, Never even contemplating once that DISNEY is not only dominating HOLLYWOOD and every studio in Box office, but is also Dominating them all in The Home Media market as well...

lol god I wish I could see your face....you've spent a year SHAMELESSLY trolling Disney due to your anger that They are dominating HOLLYWOOD and Now you just got hit with A Shin to the face making you realize its even WORSE than you imagined, Disneys Dominance is Even WORSE than You probably ever contemplated, Now you have do a bunch of research and come up with desperate and absurd excuses for why "It does Matter Disney is dominating the Home Media Market"

again, if you dont mind, please rate your level of anger/devastation on a scale from 1 to 10 after reading this....

Or you could simply just tell me watch kind of reaction you had once you realized Disney has in fact Made BILLIONS more the last 3 years than in other studio on HOME MEDIA constantly having the TOP grossing BRs and DVDS....

did you Punch a Wall....Break your keyboard in half? ....have a delayed reaction and Yell at your wife or children for no good reason.....did you throw a drink?

what did you do to deal with this completely unexpected Punch to the gut?

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Bill?


LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

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Already at 300 million worldwide after just 10 days, bill.

WB and those "out of control" budgets. Say bill...how 'bout WB''s Crazy Rich Asians and it's out of control 30 million budget? Think that can make a profit?

Meanwhile...over at Disney's Christopher Robin....

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

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Ooooooohhhhh....biiiiiilllll????

Come out, come out wherever you are!

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

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Hey bill...out-of-control WB's Crazy Rich Asians is already in the profit zone after just one week!

Meanwhile, over at Disney's Christopher Robin with it's 75 million budget...

LOLOLOLOLOLOL

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And Ant-Man and the Wasp? The one you said was a flop that couldn't beat Solo?

Oh that's right...you're not adult enough to admit when you're wrong and trolling.

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I never said AM2 was a "flop".

Never.

I said it was an underperformer. I admit I was wrong about it not matching Solo domestically. I never predicted it would not match it internationally.

Anything else?

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Man up and say you were wrong over there.

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I said it was an underperformer. I admit I was wrong about it not matching Solo domestically. I never predicted it would not match it internationally.


^^^^

[–] QueenFanUSA (1006)
Overseas MAY help this break even and keep this from being a "flop" but I think the OP is referring to it's domestic underperformance where it not only will finish below Solo, but may not even match the first film's 180 million final gross.

^direct quote from you queen..

Yes you did say AM2 was going to flop

Specifically you all but SPELLED out a best case scenario for the film being to "Break Even"....but just to really put your foot in your Mouth....YOU hilariously added "MAY" break even

that means you thought it was pretty likely it WOULD NOT Break Even....therefor you were saying the film was going to flop or break even at best

But just for arguments sake, lets forget that for a second, you obviously dont want to admit You thought/said the film was going to flop, because NOW you look like an idiot now that the film is heading toward a 100 M + profit....

but the one thing you can NOT ARGUE is..........................You made it perfectly clear, AT BEST you could only see this film MAYBE breaking even.....

So You can argue that "I never said AM2 was a "flop"." all you want to try and save face....

But your crystal Clear Statement of "At Best Its going to MAYBE Break even" is Just as Bad and Just as big of a fail.....

Bottom Line your statement makes it clear, You were expecting AM2 to Probably FLOP, but at the absolute BEST, Maybe JUST BREAK EVEN.....You were disastrously wrong....PERIOD

the film exceeded your expectations in every possible way.....The Film Exceeded Its Predessors In ever possible way from from Larger Opening Weekend, Larger total domestic, larger World Wide gross, larger China gross, and A Larger overall PROFIT....

Basically AM2 is exactly what ANY and ALL studios hope with a sequel but rarely get....It ADDED and Out Grossed the Original across the board....

When you have a D List character/property like AM and YOU turn that Into a franchise of at least 3 films and those films all are 100 M+ Profit earners and All are more successful than the previous film, thats a home run...

Think about this

WB just spent almost 1 Billion dollars on a Trilogy of films featuring Their biggest and Most Iconic characters and those 3 films resulted In LESS than 100 Million dollars in profit for the studio COMBINED

Man of Steel Cost 250 Million to Make, WB made a Confirmed 42 Million dollar Profit on the film

BvS cost between 300 to 400 Million dollars to make, WB made a Confirmed 103 Million dollar In Profit

JL cost between 300 to 350 Million to make, WB LOST AT LEAST 60 Million on It

thats a combined Production Cost of 850 Million to 1 Billion dollars to make this Trilogy of films that Featured DCs most Iconic A list characters and it resulted in 85 Million dollars in TOTAL PROFIT

lol Yet Marvel Studios took A D List character in AM, Turned into a Franchise that Will be at least 3 films, But Right now with Just 2 films Its Already Almost 3 times more success and Profitable than WBs Disastrous Snyder Trilogy.

AM1 cost 130 Million, Netted the studio a confirmed 101 Million in Profit

AM2 cost 162 Million, Will Net the studios between 110 to 125 Million in Profit....

WB Spent 1 Billion dollars to make an Eventual Profit of 85 M....

Marvel Studios Spent 290 Million that Will Net the 211 to 226 Million dollars in Profit..


lol The Point is, at this point all you can do is admit you were wrong, the box office of AM2 is just at the point where you can no longer deny it, but because you hate Disney so much and because Your so Frustrated that AM2 has proven you wrong and made you look like an idiot, what your going to do is ....Admit your wrong, Admit the film is a hit but your going to try and desperately claim its just a small hit or modest hit, and that was my point of comparing WB's BILLION dollar investment that reSULTED in a 85 Million Profit....to Marvels 290 M investment that WILL result in 211 to 226 Million in Profit....

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The AM Franchise Is A HOME RUN ....ANY and ALL studios would Consider the franchise and each films Performance as MASSIVE HITS....

Your just going to have to LIVE IN A FANTASY World of your own if you can except that....

You were wrong at every turn about AM2....YOUR expectations that the film was "Probably going to flop but MAY break even at best" LITERALLY did not even come close.....


PS....I'm still not sure how EVEN YOU arent Praising AM2 as A Giant hit.....afterall you've made plenty of threads on the Ready Player One board claiming its doing great and its box office is RED HOT....

lol IF RPO is A HUGE hit...then IN YOUR OWN WORDS AM2 has to be a monster hit...

If RPO A film that Opened to 53 M, made 137 M domestically and 587 WW and COST 180 M(and close to 300 million with Marketing) is a HUGE hit

Then by that same scale, AM2 which Opened to 75 M, will make 215 M+ domestically and 600 M+ WW and COST MUCH LESS at 162 M(and maybe between 225 to 240 Million with Marketing) Has to be a MONSTER HIT....

Basically YOUR OWN WORDS prove AM2 is a HUGE HIT queen....

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Lol...so you are already counting the profits for a AM3 and assuming it will be bigger than AM2?

Ooooooookaayyyyy.

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Yep

I think its a pretty SAFE Bet....You know considering UMMMMMMMM 16 out of the 17 MCU sequels have GROSSED more than their Predecessors....

I would literally have to go against 10 years of history and 16 of 17 films to think other wise....

lol I mean you did know that right...you knew Every MCU Sequel in ALL THEIR Franchise have made more than their Predecessors right?

IM1-585 M
IM2-623 M
IM3-1.2 B+

Thor 1-449 M
Thor 2-649 M
Thor 3-850 M

Cap 1-370 M
Cap 2-714 M
Cap 3-1.150 B

GOTG 1-770 M
GOTG 2-870 M

AM1-519 M
AM2-600 M+

Avengers 1-1.5 B
AOU--1.4 B(Lone Exception)
Avengers IW-2.05 B(what do you corrected LONE Exception)

Hell Even Spider-Man HC made more than The last TASM2 film....

I mean I get it, Other studios seem to have trouble making Sequels that match or exceed the Original, That is the Goal and Hope of All Sequels but it very rarely happens....

so IF it was any other studio or franchise BESIDES Marvel Studios who has a 10 year track record of LITERALLY doing this EVERY SINGLE TIME I could understand why you would think its premature to assume AM3 would make more than AM2....

but this is Marvel Studios, This is AM2 which was critically Loved, and IMPROVED on AM1 in every possible way from bigger OW, bigger total domestic gross, Bigger WW total, and this is AM which is going to have A HUGE role in Avengers 4(a potential 2 Billion dollar film) next year....

I think Its a pretty safe bet AM3 will continue the pattern of INCREASING over its predecessor

lol do a little reseach before commenting...I know you were scrambling to change the subject so you didnt have to comment on your AWFUL statement where you clearly predicted "AM2 to Break Even At Best", I know you were just trying to pick out anything to the change topic off this embarrassing fail.

But dear god, had you done any research, had you looked at Marvel Studios Near 100% history of Sequels topped their Predecessors in 16 out of 17 films.you could have saved yourself this embarrassment!

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PS....

you do realize that AM3s Profits and Gross isnt even needed and JUST the 2 AM films are already more successful and more profitable than WBs TRILOGY of DCEU films featuring their biggest and most iconic heroes....

lol 2 AM films featuring A D list character are already more Profitable than MOS, BvS and JL combined....

but seriously good luck hoping AM3 wont make more than AM2....lets face it you dont have a very good history here....

remember when I told you Deadpool 2 wouldnt make as much as DP1?

remember when I told I thought DP2 would have slight decrease in every way from DP1 and you literally laughed at the thought....then embarrassingly prematurely started pumping OLD threads and made comments in every thread when you thought you were going to be right when DP2 opened...

But then hilariously DP2 opened exactly as I predicted and decreased in every way just as I predicted....remember how you then avoided the DP2 board like it was a plague?

point is....your not very good at predicting how future films/sequels are going to perform(Jurassic World 2 is another example, you predicted 1.5 to 1.6 B WW and 500 to 600 Million domestically)....

you should probably just stay away from AM3.....and definitely not talk about it making LESS than AM2...again afterall 16 out of 17 MCU sequels has made more than their predecessors....if you want to make the claim AM3 is gonna make less than AM2, I guess thats your right...but lets be clear, your making that claim based on NO Evidence, Actually your making that claim going AGAINST ALL EVIDENCE....theres truly not 1 thing you can point to that would suggest AM3 would make less than AM2.....ALL evidence points to AM3 continuing the trend and making more than its predecessor

PSS

still absolutely ZERO answer for the Ready Player One corner you TROLLED yourself into?

still no good answer for how RPO is having RED HOT box office despite costing more and making less than AM2? yet you claim AM2 is doing bad but RPO is red hot? I know its a very difficult corner you've trolled yourself into...but I thought by this point you would at least have some kind of absurd excuse?

really NOTHING? STILL?

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OW was $44½m. Foreign $97m.

Domestic gross will be over $120m, foreign over $330m. Not even opened in half the markets.

Bill: "If The Meg goes on to make 90 Million domestically"!

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Satan...there are many howlers in billbrown's post...I agree.His analysis about which studios "understand budgets" is always good for a laugh.

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As were yours in the Ant-Man and the Wasp boards.

Really, the two of you should just get down to the hitting the sheets the ways you feed off each other.

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Official: Dom $45½m, Int $101½m, Global $147m. China is $51m.

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