Yes, that's it! Seth plays it as a straight man and not meant to be too funny. He is definitely a corporate type guy, but he did come out of nowhere.
Fallon overwhelms his guests by trying to be funny, but he usually is not funny. He is generic vanilla. He has way too much filler with no decent substance. Leno was accused of being the same, but he did have that "X" appeal and recurring bits that made it work. NBC went with less of the same, as the edgier stuff just does not play during that time slot. Seth would have been more of the same, but it still would not have been up to the Leno standard. It is embarrassing that Fallon is the best NBC could find, but it is clear that they did not want to attempt anything solid after the Conan fiasco. Low end "humour" sells, and NBC is ok with that. It is not like they are on top with anything else. The whole network is going bad.
Conan is almost a perfect balance in his own way, but he could not make the Tonight Show gig work. Kimmel probably would have diminished Conan's ratings even further.
CBS can afford to go out of the way to find something different. If Corden does not work, then it won't be a devastating loss. The Eye is pretty much number 1 in the most slots on broadcast. You said it, Corden's only current competition is beyond terrible, not even funny. He does not have a high bar to overcome. Corden comes off as buffoonish and mild. He definitively does not have the charisma to ever take over The Late Show. He probably won't have the appeal of Craig Kilborn, but does he have to at this point?
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