Opening wend.. 150m
Domestic total.. 400m
Foreign total.... 600m
Total............... .....1b
Female empowerment is going into overdrive now. Its kind of building on Wonder Woman almost Marvels version of WW. Its leading on directly from the biggest MCU & its the film leading into Endgame. The fact its actually got 'Marvel' in the title will help it overseas
Captain Marvel is already a success. Critically perhaps it's not the most beloved Marvel movie, though for a comic book movie its rating are solid, but the good thing is that Brie Larson got great reviews, even by those that didn't like the movie that much. And that's the biggest win for Marvel. Who knows maybe it's better Captain Marvel didn't peak with its opening number like Iron Man. As for its BO, anything above 800M is great. CM doesn't have the same public appeal as WW, this is the first time we're seeing her.
shareFemale empowerment at the EXPENSE of everyone else is CRASHING and BURNING. Suck it up.
Guess the BO of Brie Larson? I'd guess it would smell like sweat, garlic, and lavender,
share61m Friday.
Could be way more than 150m wend..
153m opening wkend
455m ww opening.
this is probably heading for 1.1-1.2b ww total
I'm still expecting that $850-$950 million range.
shareI agree, I'm not expecting the holds for the following weekends to be as excellent as they should be for CM to reach 1.1-1.2B WW, even with a stellar worldwide OW. CM already did what it was supposed to do, even with a 65% drop next weekend it will get to 850-900M WW, which is more than enough.
sharethat seems pretty unlikely & overly conservative to me now. to only make 2x its opening weekend would suggest a 'batman v superman' level fan backlash, and i don't think there's anything like that going on. this has an 'a' cinemascore, so audiences are getting what they came for.
i would roughly estimate, based on the somewhat middling reviews & audience satisfaction though not complete enthusiasm that the multiplier of opening weekend gross should be a 2.4 minimum. 2.4 x $455m opening weekend gets you to $1.092 billion, so i think that's likely where cm will end up. to end up at $900m would mean this thing caved, did not perform the way other mcu films & other large-budget films in general do, and i don't think there's any reason to think this will happen at this point.
no guarantees in this world, of course, but $900m total gross would be a very anomalous result.
It will gross around 1 billion , it already made 455M worldwide this weekend , by the end of the next weekend will be already at around 700M , not counting that it will open in Japan on Friday which is a big market for Marvel movies
shareIts the overseas market that makes me hesitant to hop on board with $1 billion. Whether its $400mil domestic/$600mil foreign, $450mil domestic/$550mil foreign, or $350mil domestic/$650mil foreign, I'm just not willing to put faith in any of those combos to reach a billion.
shareI'll rather lower my expectations than to feed the trolls here if CM earns "only" 900M, they'll be all like "My God what a failure, it didn't reach 1B!", they don't need much - fortunately Marvel doesn't give them that much to work with :)
sharethat's completely reasonable, & generally speaking it's almost always a good practice to tamp down your expectation of any result.
and i agree with the point made above that overseas stuff is a little harder to pin down, china in particular. i'm not sure this has ever been the case for marvel films, but i believe there have been a few instances where films opened with big first weekends in china, then completely disappeared, made almost nothing after that.
& i guess it's possible something like that might happen with cm. but it would be pretty odd, definitely not in keeping with the way marvel films have recently behaved.
at some point, maybe soon, people will likely get tired of these mcu films, and one of them will tank, & the series will probably fade away. but i don't think that is happening this year.
i think we're pretty safe declaring $1billion to be the floor for this film, but the proof of the pudding is in the eating.