Tracking better than Aquaman and Wonder Woman
could be big numbers, ill be seeing you Queen
shareWe'll see, I guess.
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MovieChat Forums > Captain Marvel (2019) Discussion > Tracking better than Aquaman and Wonder ...
I am...cautious. Time will tell.
sharethis movie looks gay. but so do aquaman and wonder woman. to many nerds watching these super hero movies...
shareIf the OW projection of $120m is met, then a billion worldwide is almost certain.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/heat-vision/captain-marvel-passes-up-aquaman-wonder-woman-presales-1188788
If the OW projection of $120m is met, then a billion worldwide is almost certain.I say thee NAY!!
Aquaman did almost $300 Million dollars in China. Take away China and you don't have a billion dollar movie.
Do you honestly think that CM will perform like Aquaman in China, Korea, Japan and Singapore? Wonder Woman was a much more well known character than Aquaman and has much more name recognition than Captain Marvel and WW did $94 Million in China. If WW had performed like Aquaman she too would have crossed $1 Billion with almost the same result.
Aquaman bolstered it's chance of performing well by having a Pacific Islander as the lead actor, James Wan as a talented Director and Hamada as a studio exec and the press tour for Aquaman highlighted all of that. The Middle Kingdom came out in droves for that movie.
For China, Black Panther did only $105 Million, CA:CW did $180 Mil, Avengers:IW did $360, but Avengers did only $86, and Ultron did only $240. I say "only" like that is bad but it is relative and demonstrates that the China market is indeed growing but all films don't play the same. I don't see a female lead Superhero even from Marvel cracking $150 Million in China.
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Great post, Norrinrad.
I did pause when I read about James Wan being a "talented director". While I agree he is talented, you sure wouldn't know it from watching Aquaman.
I think he did great given the stupid source material.
shareEh...that doesn't excuse the lousy acting and most of the humor landing with a thud. Action sequences that had my mind wandering when I was supposed to be riveted.
Etc..etc.
No denying it's a smashing commercial success, though. I'm sure Captain Marvel will be a vastly superior film but...sadly...won't touch Aquaman's box office.
No denying it's a smashing commercial success, though. I'm sure Captain Marvel will be a vastly superior film but...sadly...won't touch Aquaman's box office.
^^^
Aquaman's Opening Weekend-$67 M
Captain Marvel's 140 M+ to 160 M
Aquaman's domestic total-$335 Million ish
Captain Marvel's-Guaranteed 350 to 400 M+
consider Aquaman's box office touch, grabbed and then body-slammed by Captain Marvel....
queen, this could be one of your worst beatings...Captain Marvel is so exceeded your expectations and predictions....jesus this is gonna be a hard few weeks for you...
right up there with the beatings you took on the Black Panther, DP2, Avengers IW and Thor 3 boards...
but this may be worse...
Aquaman opened to 67m ow , i would hope it would be better than that
shareCan't really go by Aquaman. It kinda caught lightning in a bottle with its foreign box office. Aquaman's domestic take was similar to Thor Ragnarok's.
I'm hoping to see at least $110 million opening weekend and a domestic box office somewhere in the $300 million range. That should set it up for a decent worldwide but thats really up to foreign markets which are next to impossible to predict. I'm not sure how doable $600 million will be for the foreign box office but it would be nice to see it reach $900 million worldwide.
@furiousstyles
Yes...you will. I hope to see billbrown, as well. He was waving around boxoffice.com's prediction of 160 million OW just like he was a couple of months ago with their prediction of a 360 million domestic total for Mary Poppins Returns.
Lol...he just never learns.
Aquaman's OW was diluted by the holidays so Captain Marvel may surpass that. Beating Wonder Woman's OW will be a much more difficult task.
What matters most is what it 's made at the end of it's run. Frankly, I'll be surprised if it tops Aquaman's 335 million and it has almost no chance of beating Wonder Woman's 410 million.
Aquaman's OW was diluted by the holidays so Captain Marvel may surpass that. Beating Wonder Woman's OW will be a much more difficult task.
What matters most is what it 's made at the end of it's run. Frankly, I'll be surprised if it tops Aquaman's 335 million and it has almost no chance of beating Wonder Woman's 410 million.
^^^^
thank you for this ^^^
that difficult task is accomplished....CM easily murdered WWs OW
also go from "surprised" to shocked...because Captain Marvel is already guaranteed to top Aquamans 335 M domestic total
thank you queen
The pressure is on Marvel for sure as, once again, Disney will need their over-performance to make up for two immediate, expensive flops on the horizon...Dumbo and Aladdin.
shareCM won't be a flop. Financially it will at least break even, critically it will be pampered if not for its quality then for all the obvious reasons. Why is Marvel under pressure? Oh your Disney obsession, forgot about that. Even if Dumbo and Aladdin flop Disney has more titles this year that will make it the biggest studio yet again. Lion King, Toy Story, Star Wars, Avengers Endgame.
DC managed to pull two (financial) successes and all of the sudden you take them as a measure of success, now that's hilarious. Think of all the many DC disasters they pulled over the past few years and how much money those titles and characters could've and should've earned.
Lost opportunity dollars isn't something that QueenFanUsa will address because he thinks that Disney is losing money without understanding (not meaning to apply a military strategy) that Disney has built up a substantial war chest to continue to drive and capture Market Share, Mind-Share and brand loyalty.
Oh Nooooooooooooooooos, Disney's animation department is losing money and the company is being propped up by Marvel! WB and Universal would GLADLY like to be in the position of Disney, no ifs ands or buts. Is it hard being the Lead Dog? Sure, everyone is gunning to take you down and nitpicking your every move and over critiquing every aspect of your performance to some arbitrary standard that suits an agenda. I'm pretty sure Disney Execs, Shareholders and their paying fans feel pretty good with Disney's position now and moving forward.
CM is positioned and setup to be a solid performer. The quality inherent in the film will be put on screen and Marvel has put their money behind CM the film and the actor Brie Larson. The performance of CM has nothing to do with Aquaman and or Wonder Woman. Only shallow fans are obsessed with that comparison.
Rising Tides are supposed to lift all boats.
Captain Marvel does not have to Over perform.
Marvel is under pressure because they have to make up for so many Disney flops.
Yeah...so what if Dumbo and Aladdin flops? Their production budgets are probably the usual 200 million. No biggie.
Star Wars is going to magically return to glory, too, eh?
I don't think there is enough pressure on Disney. Even if CM sucks ass and get the 'Solo' treatment, Avengers Endgame will still come up after that and everyone is going to see the fuck out of that one. Probably forgetting CM exists at all. It will be a problem however, if CM shows up in Avengers Endgame just for the sake of saving everyone and defeating Thanos. If that happens you can kiss the MCU goodbye.
You are right about Dumbo, Aladdin and Star Wars. Those franchises are not looking good.
Good post.
Look.
.Marvel is the only thing holding up Disney's film division. The pressure is real.
They can't and won't keep having the luxury of a couple of huge Marvel films covering for the 8 flops they released that year.
When you say pressure you're not actually talking about real pressure. Pressure to stay in the green above the yellow isn't the same kind of pressure as trying to get out of the red or yellow. Disney has been in the green for so long they kinda forgot what yellow even tastes like. They got a temporary whiff of it with Solo but Mary Poppins didn't put them in the yellow. Solo was a flop because it cost a whopping $300 million to make due to countless production issues. Mary Poppins only cost around $130 million. Because of its lower budget it avoided being a flop. CM is budgeted around $150 million and will more than likely take in double Mary Poppin's worldwide box office.
That said I don't think Warner Bros is in the red like most MCU fans seem to think. BvS's box office was in the yellow while WW's, SS's and Aquaman's were all in the green. Only JL's was in the red and it wasn't by a lot.
But you add those things together and thats actual pressure for WB whereas Disney is kinda sitting pretty no matter what they do.
Actually...the opposite is true. WB released more than TWICE the amount of films last year than Disney and how many do you think lost money?
Zero.
Why does that put WB in a more precarious position?
Outside of Marvel and Incredibles 2, every Disney film either barely broke eve or lost money. Three films lost more than 100 million apiece.
Because WB's gains aren't anywhere close to Disney's. Many of those movies you think didn't lose money either lost a little or came close to even. We can't really have this discussion until you give some examples as I did.
share Outside of Marvel and Incredibles 2, every Disney film either barely broke eve or lost money. Three films lost more than 100 million apiece.
^^^
and yet Disney still KILLED WB in the yearly Profit and earnings which makes it 6 out of the last 7 years Disney was the most profitable studio....
Queen, Disney owns you...accept it....
WB can ONLY dream on Making 700 Million + in profit on a single film....
WB can only dream of making 500 + in profit on a single film
Disney does multiple times a year....
I get that you have a burning hatred for Disney....But you cant change facts...and the facts clearly come to only 1 conclusion....for the last decade...Disney OWNS hollywood, Owns WB and most importantly OWNS you...
lol nothing could be worse than hating Disney as much as you do and having to watch them 6 of the last 7 years easily Win the most profitable studio at the end of the year...
that has to be PURE HELL for you...
to hate something so much and have to watch it win every year...
Disney is sitting pretty right now yes. But they should be mindful of their franchises. Just look at Star Wars to see how quickly something can fall. Star Wars is a 40 year old franchise, kept alive by loads of die hard fans. Only took 2 movie to kill the hype and another one to kill interest all together.
shareYou keep going to Star Wars but you fail to realize Solo was a movie nobody asked for plagued with production issues while having a massive $300 million budget. The only thing Disney has to be mindful about is to not do that again. lol. TLJ still made $1.3 billion and the next will probably do the same or better which is way more than the prequels made and is WAY WAY more than is required to stay in the green. The only thing that will kill the flagship Star Wars films is Disney deciding to not make them any more. The Star Wars "story" movies were nothing more than side projects. But again Solo's production got out of hand. And also Kathleen Kennedy didn't handle it very well. TLJ was a mess but with JJ back for IX everything is where it needs to be.
share''TLJ still made $1.3 billion and the next will probably do the same or better'' No it won't.
Sure nobody can REALLY predict what is going to happen, but the facts are that the fanbase is split and that loads of people didn't like TLJ. It killed alot of hype and interest for Star Wars. Sure some people will keep sticking with it and go see Episode 9, but I don't see it getting the same box office or even better. Only if JJ REALLY nails it and fixes everything bad. Its going to be one hell of a job to pull that off.
Even if you were correct you would understand that the backlash is either oriented toward Star Wars or Kathleen Kennedy and does not transfer over to Disney/MCU/Kevin Feige. Otherwise Infinity War would not have made $2 billion and Ant Man and the Wasp would not have doubled Solo's box office.
But as far as IX making at least $1.3 billion. Oh yes. It will indeed. It won't make the $2 billion that Force Awakens made. But it doesn't have to.
You have to understand one simple thing, Queen desperately WANTS for Disney to be under pressure.
shareYou have to understand one simple thing, Queen desperately WANTS for Disney to be under pressure.BINGO!!!!
QueenFanUsa has his own standards, his own metrics, his own agenda, his own mantra for Disney performance and the company that he admires soooooooooooo much. His financial model is all based on low product budget and moderate success. Let's use Get Out from Universal as an example. $4.5 product budget but grossed $255 Million. The ROI for that movie is HUGE!!! But what is the net profit to the studio, $150 Million to $200 Million? So let's take CA:CW with a $250 Million production budget against a $1.154 Billion dollar gross. Lower return on investment but which studio made more money?
Disney eats EVERYBODY eats. The entire production budget resource food chain means that EVERYBODY got paid handsomely and massive amounts of dollars were still returned to Disney.
Disney eats EVERYBODY eats. Universal? Oh, well they have a wonderfully efficient ROI for a few movies but how far will it go?
Queen wants to harp on, "Disney is circling the drain" or maybe just the Animation Film division is, I have no idea as he is scattershot and all over the place with the foundations of his predictions, his projections, pronouncements his wishes and hopes because they are primarily based on wanting to One-Up Billbrown.'
Am I saying that every Disney Animation or Live Action remake were Box office smashes? No. Is anyone saying that the Star Wars franchise hasn't had ups and downs, No. But Queen tries over, and over, and over to state that the end is near for Disney. Methinks Queen fancies himself as Thanos?
Thanos: "I know what it's like to lose. To feel so desperately that you're right, yet to fail nonetheless. It’s frightening. Turns the legs to jelly. I ask you, to what end? Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same. And now, it's here. Or should I say, I am."
No Queen. You're not Thanos. You have no stones. :-) share