Toni Erdmann or The Salesman?
Which one of the aforementioned has a better shot at the Oscars?
shareI think "Toni Erdmann" will win.
Not because "The Salesman" is a worse movie.
(How do you even compare them ?)
My reasoning is simple:
All the women in the Academy will vote for Maren Ade.
And all the German members, which outnumber all Iranian members by far.
Actually, I think it's a big flaw of the Academy and probably has a strong bias on the results:
Some nationalities (like the UK, France, Italy, Spain, Germany…) have many more members
than other.
And if the movies are both good, they will mostly vote for 'their own'.
That's how people are.
Well, I haven't seen either yet, but judging by what's been going on it could go to either film for different reasons.
Toni Erdmann did not win the Golden Globe. Some critics said the film was overlong and felt unbalanced a lot of the time. Even though it is hailed by many.
The Salesman has been receiving great reviews, no bad ones so far. Critics praised the acting and screenplay a lot. The director is unable to attend the awards ceremony because of Trump, so it could be a political thing for it to win?
WARNING: I'M SEXY!