MovieChat Forums > Moana (2016) Discussion > Can this also make $1billion???

Can this also make $1billion???

posted 8 years ago by sul-uddin96
25 replies | jump to latest

With every review and some speculations I have read, there are many critics stating that 'Moana' could be "the next 'Frozen' (2013)"... by this, I imagine they are referring to the popularity, success and cultural impact...

I also remember that in the international trailer for 'Frozen', as well as it saying that it's "from the creators of 'Tangled' (2010)", they also stated that it's the "biggest musical event since 'The Lion King' (1994)", which was Disney's last culturally popular film until 'Frozen'. Not to mention the many critics who reviewed it, and compared it to the Disney films of the 1990s.

Now, it would be easy to doubt 'Moana', given the other animated competitors including 'Trolls' and 'Sing'. Movies like 'Frozen' and 'Zootopia', I think, did extremely well due to the lack of competition during their release.

Considering 'Frozen' was released in time for the holiday season of 2013, there was barely any other family film alternatives out... I mean, other films released included; 'Dallas Buyers Club', 'Her', '12 Years A Slave' and 'The Wolf of Wall Street' (DO NOT take your kids to see that...) Plus, I think the good-word-of-mouth helped benefit 'Frozen' into making the money that it did.

'Zootopia' is a similar kind of story. Released in March, which is very risky for some films, it's biggest competition was 'Batman v Superman'... but the word-of-mouth surrounding the highly anticipated BvS was so bad, and the word-of-mouth surrounding 'Zootopia' was too good, maybe that could also explain the billion dollars in the Disney bank.

Who knows? Maybe 'Moana' could still do well despite the very tight competition. But, all this talk about its anticipation could lead it to surprise victory.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

You hit it roght on the head...Frozen wasn't sandwiched between two other animated musicals like Moana is. Trolls is already a sizable hit and Sing is an Illumination film...they print money.

Given the competition it will be extremely hard for Moana to accumalate the grossesFrozen did...or even Zootopia's.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Frozen opened on Thanksgiving and played strong throughout the Christmas holidays and beyond.

This year, there is Illumination's Sing opening right before Christmas and will most certainly knee-cap Moana's legs.

[–] Block-Busted 8 years ago

'Sing' would have to beat 'Rogue One' first.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Rogue One won't effect Sing at all..different audience.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Rogue One won't effect Sing at all..different audience.

It definitely will. The main demographics are different, yes, but RO is all encompassing pretty much, and Sing will have crossovers into the adult market. While I won't be seeing Sing as I personally think it looks rather stupid, I will be going to see both RO and Moana. Moana and Sing would be seen as the same audience, so I think that's an adequate comparison.

[–] Block-Busted 8 years ago

To be fair, 'Rogue One' might be the least kid-friendly film in the series, so anything can happen.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Eh, it still got the PG-13 tag, and I don't see that deterring people as much as it might have used to. So young kids like 3-8 might be prevented from seeing it by certain small groups of parents, but I don't see it making a huge difference. Like I said, they are definitely aimed at different audiences, but with SW being so universal and kids' movies getting more and more adult viewers these days, there is a huge bit of overlap.

[–] 8 years ago

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[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

Honestly it would need to be a hit in another big country other than just the United States. Frozen was Japan and Zootopia was China (and Russia oddly enough.) Without this it very likely won't come near one billion. I'd also present the argument that Frozen was HUGE because of a catchy song and Moana doesn't appear to have this going for it. Zootopia did very well in China and other Asian countries because they seen it as nore cultural take on modern day life. Take Finding Dory for example. It was
huge in the USA but failed to do anything near those numbers anywhere else in comparison. And even with those large domestic grosses it will end only making a few more million than Zootopia did.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Excellent point, lennon!

[–] Hold_the_door 8 years ago

I'd also present the argument that Frozen was HUGE because of a catchy song and Moana doesn't appear to have this going for it.

Having heard the soundtrack of Moana, pretty much all of the songs are as strong as Let it Go.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

That's good to hear, hold-the-door!

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

Well that's what you're saying but it's not what I'm hearing for multiple other sources. I guess we'll just have to wait and see then.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

I'd also present the argument that Frozen was HUGE because of a catchy song and Moana doesn't appear to have this going for it.

Without the movie having been released yet, How Far I'll Go already has almost 2 million views on YouTube, and 3.3 million listens on Spotify. I'd say that means it's fairly catchy.

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

Well if you honestly want to talk about YouTube here's another comparison. The highest count for Moana I found for any video (all of these are top listings) was 11 million for the first trailer. But Sing on the other hand trailer 1: 46 million and trailer 3: (two weeks ago) 2 million. If we take that into account Sing would be a massive hit. So I wouldn't really depend that much of YouTube to give a clear picture of a film or songs success.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

WATCHING a trailer on YouTube is not an adequate comparison to a song on YouTube with just a still picture to look at.

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

LOL OKAY Pal! I'm not going to argue with you then! Just wait and see! That's all I'm going to say about it.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

But what am I going to wait for and see? I already agreed with you that it won't hit Frozen's BO. I was just arguing that How Far I'll Go is a catchy song. Not really any way to prove that. Unless we compare soundtrack sales?

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

While I do think it will be very successful and has a solid chance at the coveted 1B mark, I don't think it can be "the next Frozen". As I pointed out when FD was coming out, Frozen was a bit of an anomaly. The unbelievable hype for that movie gave it some of the most insane legs ever. It didn't drop below 1 million domestic (this is including week days) until day 53. It was number 1 at the box office on its 73rd day. That kind of stuff is just ludicrous, and I'll don't think we'll be seeing it again any time soon.

But, yes, I'd say 1B is definitely possible. 700 mil is almost guaranteed.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Yes...and Frozen roared through the Christmas holidays unabated. Sing will ensure that doesn't happen for Moana.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

I don't like to bet on any movies hitting 1 billion except for Star Wars and Marvel. However, I think Moana has a decent shot. Disney has had a stellar year with Zootopia, The Jungle Book, and Finding Dory (technically Pixar but still has the Disney logo). People are trusting Disney more and more with their kid-friendly entertainment. Disney's last musical was Frozen, and there's certainly tons of goodwill left over from there. Lin Manuel Miranda is a massive Broadway name thanks to Hamilton. The reviews are absolutely amazing, it's still standing at a 100% RT and it has a higher Metacritic score than Zootopia and Frozen. Seen quite a bit of Twitter buzz for it today, and it's garnering attention for its fully fleshed out, 3 dimensional, POC heroine.

Projections:
70 million OW (97 million 3 day)
370 million domestic total
1.1 billion worldwide

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

Just for reference Zootopia also opened at 100% on RT and had a meta score at 80% or so when it opened. Moana isn't going to remain where it is, negative reviews will come they always do!

And also as I said before Moana is going to have to be huge in another major market to go one billion plus! Frozen had Japan and Zootopia had China. Even Dory With huge gains in the United States couldn't pull those same numbers anywhere else in the world and will close just slightly above Zootopia. So Japan or China is just going to have to really love this film along with several other major markets like the U.K., France, and Germany for it to reach those numbers.

[–] gizmo18 8 years ago

I think it's almost certain Moana will hit a billion. The Disney animation brand is the strongest it's been since the early '90s.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

gizmo

Actually, Illumination is the strongest boxoffice name in animation.

Hurts to say it but it's true, unfortunately.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

After watching it, I can't imagine it not making a billion honestly. Incredible WoM is going to spread like wild for for this masterpiece.