Yikes! At least 10 million below Frozen's Opening Weekend.
Much worse than I had ever expected. Probably not going to make it to even 300 million domestic.
shareStill a hit.
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MovieChat Forums > Moana (2016) Discussion > Yikes! At least 10 million below Frozen...
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Queen's logic: It opened below Frozen so it's a bomb. Another bomb for Disney after Alice Through the Looking Glass, Civil War, Finding Dory, the BFG (this was actually cofinanced by Amblin Entertainment, Reliance Entertainment, Walden Media and The Kennedy/Marshall Company, so Disney will suffer only the 1/5 of the loss, but Queen doesn't care) and Doctor Strange. Not to mention that The Jungle Book underperformed in Japan. Zootopia is their only hit, and even that made less than Minions so... it's not really a hit.
Disney is having such a terrible year. Oh I forgot their smaller/Oscar contender films which all flopped badly. Who cares if they had small budgets?
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She's been complaining about Pete's Dragon also.
shareIt's still successful. Movies like 'Frozen' were too successful...
shareIt'losing steam as the weekend progresses. It beat Frozen handidly on premiere night but with each passing day the gulf( no pun intened) has widened in Frozen's favor. It doesn't bode well for it's long-term prospects.
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Trolls is exceeding expectations and was cheaper to produce.
shareOnly cheaper by 25 million, and expectations means jack, only money matters. No one's pointing at Trolls saying it's a bigger hit by percentage outgrossing expectations, Moana is a much bigger hit by any reasonable means of calculation.
shareAt this rate I don't think this gets close to 300 million domestic.
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Frozen was a CULTURAL PHENOMENON. You can't replicate that.
It doesn't NEED to hit 300 million domestic. For what it's worth, it probably will, but it doesn't need to. It has a 150 million budget, so as long as it reaches 500 million worldwide, it's safely in the green. That will certainly happen. Worst case domestic total is around 250 million, 3x its 5-day. Most big movies have at least a 40-60 domestic-overseas split, which puts it safely over 500 million (more precisely, 625 million). A Frozen split, entirely logical with smaller numbers, puts it a smidge under 800 million, or more precisely, 796 million. Even a 50-50 split puts it at 500 million.
Now, you may also be wondering where I got my 250 million domestic total.
Glad you asked!
Tangled made 3x its 5-day on not as great reviews. It also had competition to deal with, Chronicles of Narnia: Voyage of the Dawn Treader in its 3rd weekend. Now, you may be saying "but Sing is gonna be so much bigger"! I direct you to Pro Box Office's Sing projection, a 3-day of 24 million, identical to Dawn Treader. Also, Tangled had to face it sooner in its run than Moana will face Sing.
I also use Toy Story 2 as a comp here. This also opened wide over Thanksgiving. Movies aren't as leggy as they used to be, but Toy Story 2 has a trajectory very similar to that of most modern winter movies. It opened to 80 million over the Thankgiving 5-day, and went on to make 245 million. Bump that up a little for Moana's 83 million, and you're at 254 million domestic for Moana. Toy Story 2 also had to face Stuart Little in its 3rd weekend in wide release. Didn't open high, but it was super leggy and provided consistent competition.
And now where did 500 million being safely in the green come from?
Wreck It Ralph made 471 million worldwide on a 165 million budget. It has a sequel in production. Sequels aren't made to movies that aren't profitable. What Wreck It Ralph had in toy sales, Moana has in that as well as music sales.
I'm trying not to sound antagonistic here, but your consistent pessimism is honestly getting on my, as well as seemingly everyone else's, nerves.
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No talk faded away, it's still dated for March 2018.
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http://www.ew.com/article/2016/06/30/wreck-it-ralph-2-officially-announced
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Not really sure what your post means, but the link works for me.
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Oh yeah Laika we should be legitimately concerned for. The sad thing is Kubo has done no better or worse than any other Laika movie on the same budget.
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I guess I was just looking at domestic. Kubo, Boxtrolls, Corpse Bride, and ParaNorman are all within 8 million of each other domestic, but Kubo did truly awful overseas, even compared to the others.
shareI'm trying not to sound antagonistic here, but your consistent pessimism is honestly getting on my, as well as seemingly everyone else's, nerves.
Couldn't have said this better myself! No offense QueenfanUSA, but it is really getting annoying how you start posts like this on the board for EVERY single Disney movie. I've seen you start similar posts on the Maleficient board, Cinderella board, Big Hero 6 board, Finding Dory board, and Inside Out board. I have honestly come to the conclusion that you are a troll who is just trying to start trouble because I seriously can't see a Disney fan continuously starting threads like this, as well as gloating about a film's "disappointing" box office. I can almost guarantee that come March, you will be starting posts on the Beauty and Beast board about how the film is performing "poorly" at the box office and that The Boss Baby is going to sabotage Beauty and the Beast's success.
*All the world's a stage, and all the men and women merely players.*ðŸŽ
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Tangled had good reviews? Jeez people are harsh on this site.
shareTangled had an 89% RT score, same as Frozen and 1 below Doctor Strange and Civil War. It had a 71 Metacritic, the same as Mulan and just a tiny bit below Frozen.
shareI didn't mean the question mark behind that. I knew tangled got good reviews - it used to be 90% on rotten tomatoes and anything above 90, in my opinion is pretty damn good considering critics can be harsh.
shareOh okay. My not as great reviews comment was not saying that Tangled got BAD reviews, just that Moana's are better. I actually haven't seen Tangled.
shareIt'll make 300 mill based on word of mouth. Easily. It has great reviews and a lot of people propbably skipped it this weekend because they were waiting to hear if it was a hit or not. I bet the drop off in weekend 2 is less than 50%
shareSo anything that makes less than Frozen is a bomb to you? That's like saying anybody who doesn't have as much money as Bill Gates is dirt poor.
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