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Foreign Numbers: Are They as Bad as They Look?

posted 8 years ago by Zaphenzo
11 replies | jump to latest

Nope. They aren't. Looking at the comparisons against Frozen, which was a foreign BO giant, and lowballing the finish estimates (note: only looking at major earning territories for Frozen, 5mil+):

Belgium
Frozen
Opened: $786,000
Finished: $7.93 million

Moana
Opened: $746,000
Finish Guess: $6.81 million

China
Frozen
Opened: $14.11 million
Finished: $48.24 million

Moana
Opened: $12.3 million
Finish Guess: $34.19 million

Colombia
Frozen
Opened: $1.73 million
Finished: $6.27 million

Moana
Opened: $684,000
Finish Guess: $2.17 million

France
Frozen
Opened: $9.16 million
Finished: $46.94 million

Moana
Opened: $6.72 million
Finish Guess: $29.72 million

Mexico
Frozen
Opened: ~$8 million (this one wasn't tracked well, so this is basically a guess based on second weekend gross)
Finished: $25.73 million

Moana
Opened: $2.88 million
Finish Guess: $6.43 million

Netherlands
Frozen
Opened: ~$1 million (opened at $807k, but opened on 198 screens and then added 31, so I upped it a little)
Finished: $10.5 million

Moana
Opened: $634,000
Finish Guess: $5.78 million

Poland
Frozen
Opened: $993,000
Finished: $7.35 million

Moana
Opened: $378,000
Finish Guess: $2.15 million

Russia
Frozen
Opened: ~$8 million (again, screen change; opened at $2 million, but then tripled the amount of screens)
Finished: $33.44 million

Moana
Opened: $5.05 million
Finish Guess: $20 million

Spain
Frozen
Opened: $3.45 million
Finished: $48.29 million

Moana
Opened: $1.91 million
Finish Guess: $22 million

United Kingdon
Frozen
Opened: $7.69 million
Finished: $64.73 million

Moana
Opened: $2.78 million
Finish Guess: $20.2 million

Venzuela
Frozen
Opened: $1.04 million
Finished: $12.5 million

Moana
Opened: $295,000
Finish Guess: $1.8 million

Total Guess for Moana in Above Territories: $151 million

Keep in mind that Moana has not yet opened in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Denmark, Germany, Italy, JAPAN (MASSIVE earner for Frozen), Norway, South Korea, or Sweden yet, which were all big earners for Frozen for a combined $485.47 million, or 55% of its total foreign gross. So, ignoring all territories where Frozen made under 5 million (AKA lowballing some more here), and assuming a lowered percentage of total domestic of the territories it hasn't opened in to 50% from 55% (lowballing EVEN MORE), we're looking at a final foreign gross of $302 million.

This is pretty much a worst case scenario, since I lowballed every single finish guess (took Frozen's open to finish multiplier, lowered it significantly, and then multiplied Moana's opening), ignored numerous territories, and cut the percentage of domestic gross that the remaining big territories will have. So we're looking at a WORST CASE SCENARIO of $302 million, which would still put it above Wreck-It Ralph. More realistically, we would be looking at around $420 million, which is just shy of Big Hero 6. So, really, people can stop panicking. Moana is doing great domestically, and just slightly below average overseas so far.

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

You left off the U.K.

Likewise I can't say much for most of those countries because I don't live in them. However I can for France! 29 million isn't going to happen! You forget the the Euro is MUCH lower than it was when Frozen was out. Back then it was I believe it was around 1.50? = 1$ as of today it is 1.08? = 1$. The highest films this year in France top out with: Les Tuche 2 at 32 million USD, Zootopia 31 USD and Deadpool 29 million USD and every one of these films were HUGE in France! It takes a lot more butts in seats now than it did during Frozen's time due to the rising dollar and it simply isn't happening. The issue with Moana here also is that is that nothing else is in the theater decent to watch right now. Everyone has already seen Beasts that wanted to see it and now they are waiting for R1. Soon as it hits in a few days those Moana numbers will tumble as France isn't like the United States. Many of those theaters in the count are single screen or very small. So of course they are going to be showing the biggest film in the world! And by law they also have to leave open screen time to show "French Films" so Moana will get the shaft as it's already been playing several weeks.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Ah, I did forget the UK, so I will edit to include that. As far as what you're saying, it seems like that's even more of a reason for Moana to do extremely well there. If the value of the euro is plummeting, and Moana still only fell short of Frozen's opening by under $2.5 million, then why shouldn't it be able to continue to do well just like Frozen did, and end with a little over half of what Frozen did? And in France, Frozen had to compete with Desolation of Smaug, only released one week later, and DoS only made about $2.2 million less in its full run that Frozen in France, so, honestly, Moana really has less competition than Frozen did.

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

Moana isn't Frozen and The Hobbit isn't Star Wars! ;) This a very strange comparison. Anyway though I'm not going to argue about it right now but I will come back here in a few weeks. If I'm wrong I'll admit it then.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

I agree that Moana isn't Frozen and The Hobbit isn't Star Wars. That's why the finish guess is so much lower than Frozen's.

[–] Hold_the_door 8 years ago

With most major markets yet to open, I believe Moana will either end up with Tangled's $390 million overseas total, or Big Hero 6's $435 million overseas total.
With around $250 million in USA & Canada, a total global gross anywhere between $635-685 million (give or take) looks possible.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

Wholeheartedly agree. I think the under 500 million worldwide that's been thrown around here is completely illogical, and I think 600 million worldwide is still in reach, if not likely.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Zaphenzo...I Have to say just looking at your representation of the opening numbers in all of these markets reinforces my belief that this is a box-office diasappointment. It's not a "flop", per se, but WOW. You would have thought that markets around the world would have been much more enthusiastic about going to see the first Disney Princess Musical Since Frozen than this. It really makes you think that Japan and South Korea, where Frozen was HUGE, may greet this with a shrug as well.

So I guess we are hoping for a $600 million WW Total?

For the life of me, I can't believe that this result was what Disney was expecting.

I sincerely hope that this doesn't push them to want to make cheaper films with top 40 songs and rapping bunnies.

[–] Hold_the_door 8 years ago

I think they will be satisfied if it makes $600M plus. Not every movie has to be Zootopia/Frozen.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

While they may be slightly disappointed, it's unrealistic to expect a movie to reach the heights of Zootopia/Frozen (unless they have the word Avengers or Star Wars in them). It'll make a decent profit, and it'll outgross Wreck It Ralph on a lower budget, which is getting a sequel.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Not every movie has to be Zootopia/Frozen.

This is the key. I think we've been spoiled, honestly. I admit I got caught in the illusion as well, but just because Zootopia and Frozen both topped 1 billion, it's like we're expecting every Disney movie to now. But that's crazy. Remember, there are still only 27 movies that have surpassed the billion mark. It's not something that happens commonly. So when did 600 million become bad? Remember that besides those two, the only WDAS movie to cross 600 million since Lion King was Big Hero 6. So to act like $600 million is almost a flop is ridiculous. If they cross $600 million, they'll be happy. And it will most likely be a lot more than $600 million, honestly. But again, we'll just have to wait and see.

[–] pale_dog 8 years ago

I live in Brazil and at least I am hoping it does well here. They're clearly waiting for kids to be on summer break in January to release it.

We'll see in january I guess.