Moana is basically mirroring TS2's run

Okay, I'll play along. It's not gonna crash and burn, but let's have some fun with numbers. It makes it to your proposed 210 million domestic. Let's also use the largest domestic percentage of worldwide that any Walt Disney Animation movie had earned this decade. Winnie the Pooh is an outlier that's easily disqualifiable for obvious reasons. So let's use the 40% that Wreck It Ralph pulled. It sti gets to 525 million on a 150 million budget, before merchandising and music sales. For perspective, Wreck It Ralph made 471 million worldwide on a 165 million budget (or, less on a bigger budget), and is getting a sequel, indicating they not only made money on it, but were happy with the amount of money they made. Even if they aren't happy with a 525 million worldwide total for Moana, it will make them money and it functions as a standalone movie amazing, just like every other Disney musical.

Using the usual domestic-overseas split for recent Disney Animation Studios movies, it gets to 636 million worldwide using that 210 million domestic as a baseline.

And it's going to go past 210 million domestic. It's going to get buzz for Best Animated Picture at the Oscars, which will help its longevity. Every day over school's holiday break plays like a weekend day, which will help Sing and Moana coincide.

230 million is a minimum, indicating worldwide as a minimum of 575 million worldwide and a more likely 696 million.

Running through Deadline's international report, the only legitimately disappointing performance is the UK. There's no way to spin it, it's not doing well there. Its China performance could be better, but keep in mind that Frozen only made 42 million there. It has also surpassed Inside Out. France is equal to Frozen, Russia is the 4th best Disney Animation there, presumably below Frozen, Zootopia, and Big Hero 6, and ahead of Wreck It Ralph. However, they do specifically note that it is a strong opening, which they didn't have to do. Mexico is only 14% below Frozen. Spain is 39% ahead of Big Hero 6. 21% above Frozen in Belgium, 15% behind Frozen in Netherlands, 17% behind Frozen in Switzerland. For notables, there's still Italy, Germany, Japan, Korea, Brazil, and Italy. For most notable markets mentioned, it's only the first weekend.

Moana is doing fine. Certainly it could be bigger, but they are getting a profit here.

That's what I was wondering. I know over here in France I've seen a decent amount. More than Zootopia but less than Dory. So yeah if that's the case it's going to have to make 500 WW at min to even break even!

Oddly though I was looking at Wrek it Ralph that also had a low WW and domestic. My only guess of why this film is getting a sequel is because Disney is basically giving Rich a "gift" for Zootopia! That's his baby so that's my only guess of why Disney green lighted it, much like
Zootopia is Byron's.