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Sing opening posed to beat Moana opening

posted 8 years ago by OpinionsByLennon
32 replies | jump to latest

Okay I'm posting this here because many seem to be interested in this.

Sing at this moment is tracking to have 75 million dollar opening weekend. That beats Moana opening already. The reason this could be a major problem for this film is that every other animated film I've looked at that opened during the same time period as Moana depened heavily on Christmas weekend and afterwards for a large amount of its total gross. And at this point between R1 and now Sing (along with other opening films) pulling most of the family, children, and even adult viewers away it doesn't look so good for this film.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-projections-sing-passengers-assassins-creed-battle-rogue-one-957607?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

I wouldn't give it 75 million OW. MAYBE 75 mil 5-day. Maybe. They don't seem to be considering the R1 factor.

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

*Shrugs* I'm just posting the numbers. But I've always said Sing would do very well! Illumination animated films are like a drug!

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

Also I'd say it doesn't matter a single bit what critics say about these films. Here's the last three film the studio has released and what they have grossed world wide for reference.

Despicable Me 2 970 M 73% RT
Minions 1.159 B 56% RT
SLOP 875 M 74% RT

Quality doesn't matter at all with these films! Just looking at the average of these last three it's pretty easy to draw a conclusion that Sing will also likely do
about the same.

[–] SuperBobster 8 years ago

Unless you're an accountant for one of these studios I don't see why this is so important for some people.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Because BO tracking is fun.

[–] SuperBobster 8 years ago

Each to his own.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Because BO tracking is fun.

Yup...even when it is infuriating like it has been since Illumination became such a crappy box-office powerhouse. I watch it and just shake my head.

News Flash: BOX OFFICE SUCCESS portends to what type of films we get in the future so it's kind of important.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

If you like BO tracking, you can come join fantasy movie league, it's like fantasy sports but with movies.

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

Nope! It's purely because many enjoy tracking and predicting films! If you don't like it, well no one is going to force you to follow along.

[–] SuperBobster 8 years ago

Have you seen Moana?

Did you like it?

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

Yes I have and I thought it was a okay film. Not a masterpiece but not at all bad.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Sing posts only $1.7 mil in previews, paling in comparison to Moana's $2.6 mil. So far, not at all poised to beat Moana's opening.

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

I seen, but do take into account that it was only showing on 2500 screens compared to 4000+ this weekend and that is basically the same as Zootopia had in its previews.

In other words to don't look at this to closely. It'll be a bit more easy to tell in a few days.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

I've scoured everywhere I can find to see how many screens Moana previewed on, but no luck. I don't see it being much different than Sing's number, though.

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

I don't at all remember. Also one thing I forgot to say before is lower previews at Christmas are pretty common compared to thanksgiving. That's basically the nature of the season. But the Christmas weekend will likely be huge for all new releases as generally they are.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

If you like this kind of stuff, you can join fantasy movie league, it's fantasy sports with movies and a ton of fun.

[–] OhNooos 8 years ago

I think there's board somewhere here at IMDB devoted to talk about how movies do financially.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

That 75 million projection is an estimated 6-day, Wednesday to Monday. It opened today and it counts until Monday because Christmas is on a Sunday.

[–] A-Rey-of-Light 8 years ago

Box Office Mojo is predicting a 3-day weekend of $46 million and a 5-day total of $70 million for Sing. Plus, its $1.71 million earnings from previews is lower than Moana's $2.6 million, so it's unlikely that Sing is going to pass this.

Adventure is out there!

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

Wednesday's numbers are looking like around 2 million for Moana and 11 million for Sing. That should put Sing around 80 million 6 day if it does as expected during Christmas. For reference Moana did 84 million over its opening six day holiday weekend. So it's going to be pretty close!

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Moana got 15.5 million on opening day for a six day total (it was NOT a six day holiday weekend like Sing's) of 84.4 mil. That's a 5.4x multiplier. So, increasing that to, say, 6.7x since this holiday is a typically stronger holiday than what Moana opened on and the fact that it's a true 6 day holiday as opposed to Moana's 5 day plus a regular day, then 11 mil opening would put Sing right around 74 mil, which is about where it's been projected, though at the higher end of the projections. Moana made more than that in its 5-day. So, unless Sing pulls something insane out of its butt and increased that multiplier even more, then it looks like Sing just isn't the threat that people thought it would be.

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

A five or sixday day holiday (i don't remember if they track the Monday into thanksgiving) is generally how it's tracked. Moana had previews on a Tuesday and opened on a Wednesday. That's same for Sing. Regardless it doesn't much matter at this point it looks to me right now that both films will end pretty close to on another in the 200+ million range.

Also might I add this weekend will almost certainly show big gains for Sing. Christmas falling on a Sunday and the following Monday should show big gains. So I wouldn't write it off yet! You'll have to watch the numbers this and next week to really see if it damaged Moana's flow as other films (Frozen, TS2) made huge amounts during these time periods.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Thanksgiving is just a 5 day. Christmas is only a 6 day this year because Christmas itself falls on Sunday. I'm sure Sing will get gains, but it is currently tracking a good bit behind Moana. Both will have legs, though, so there's plenty of time for both. But so far, at least, it looks like Moana is going to take the W.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

So, unless Sing pulls something insane out of its butt and increased that multiplier even more, then it looks like Sing just isn't the threat that people thought it would be.

The "threat" to Moana isn't as much about Sing matching or exceeding Moana's OW but the damage it is doing to it's overall box-office. Looking at the effect it had on Moana yesterday, it's looking like Moana will end up with only around $210-215 domestic. Without Sing it is very possible that it could have legged out to $275-300 million when all was said and done.

The current trajectory seems to find Moana ending up quite a bit below the much-maligned Brave.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

I liked Brave, btw.

Just sayin'.😉

[–] smcbride2001 8 years ago

The issue really isn't Sing at all, it's actually Rogue One. Look at Moana's daily box office, it was ahead of Frozen until Rogue One was released, now it's about 7 million behind Frozen after 29 days of release. Of course both films are from Disney, so I suppose they can afford to cannibalize their own box office returns. Must be nice.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

Frozen's first 5 days were in 1 theater, Frozen's to-date gross surpassing Moana's is just rebound from that.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

It doesn't seem to be affecting Moana's BO much, though. Moana's Monday and Wednesday earnings were about the same.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

Which is especially surprising, considering Monday is usually greater than Wednesday.

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

Wednesday was when Sing went wide. Look at the numbers on Thursday and yesterday. Clearly you can see it has made a huge dent in what Moana should be making.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Without Sing, Friday would have been much bigger for Moana..like 3x bigger.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

I know that Wednesday is when Sing went wide. That's why I compared Monday (no Sing) numbers to Wednesday (against Sing) numbers, and they were about the same. And Moana has stayed above $2 million/day throughout the week, despite Sing, besides Christmas Eve, which was treacherous for every movie, including Sing.