Final b.o. predictions

Underestimating as always?

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Overseas I think will be under 300 million...not sure how far below. if Japan does ok.

I'm calling domestic at 210 million.

WW: 500 million.

This is best case scenario. It could end up closer to 400 million than 500. It all hinges on Japan.

If you want to low-ball it, be my guest. But to call that the best case scenario is just wrong. Best case scenario would be that it matches Frozen's path and crawls over 1 billion. Realistically, I expect it to match Frozen's run in how it plays out, but obviously not quite match it. So, my numbers would be:

Domestic: $265-300 mil
Foreign: $350-700 mil (such a wide variance mainly due to Japan's inconsistencies and the lack of base to go off of in many markets it hasn't been released in yet)
Worldwide: $615 mil to $1 bil

So, why are my numbers so egregious? Well, first of all, troyplafond made a lot of points that I would make. So I skip all those, since they've already been read, to add two more:

1) I'm not afraid of competition stealing much money.

First of all, Sing is not a musical. Musicals involve characters singing when it's not appropriate and to further the story. The characters in Sing are singing in situations where someone would actually sing, like Pitch Perfect. Pitch Perfect is not a musical, nor is Sing. Plus, Moana introduced music to the audience. Sing uses already made music that people know. Typically, I'd expect audiences to prefer the former over the latter. Plus, I don't know why you keep acting like Illumination has performed better than WDAS recently. If you look at each studios last four movies:

WDAS (Zootopia, BH6, Frozen, Wreck-it Ralph) = $3.43 bil
Illumination (SLoP, Minions, DM2, The Lorax) = $3.35 bil

Also, if you look at each one's last movie, Disney wins. And, lastly, I've heard literally 0 buzz for Illumination. So, in conclusion, I don't see Sing taking much from Moana.

Second of all, Rogue One. Yeah, it'll steal money from everything and everyone. It'll stampede the box office, and probably gross well over 1 billion, possibly even pushing 1.5 billion. But will that affect Moana terribly? Meh, probably not. Frozen had The Hobbit: Desolation of Smaug come out 2 weeks into its run, and despite DoS raking in almost a billion, Frozen never slowed down. And nothing slowed down terribly when Star Wars: TFA (a 2 billion dollar powerhouse) started blowing up theaters last year. So, Rogue One will steal business, sure, but not at the level that some might expect.

2) No one saw Frozen coming either. Box office estimates at this time for Frozen were probably rather meager. No one expected it to have the biggest legs of any animated film ever. No one saw Japan throwing it $240 million. So, why should we expect Moana (the first animated musical from Disney since Frozen, released at the same time, and with similar marketing) not to throw us for some similar loops to outperform standard expectations?

So bash me all you want for the high expectations, but I'll stand by them, and we'll see what happens.

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Queen's negative reply coming soon.

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Before anyone attacks me for saying that these are too high, I'll have you all know that these domestic totals are using similar multipliers as Toy Story 2 and Tangled

They weren't going up against the hottest animation studio of the last few years...Illumination

And before you tell me that Moana has more competition than the comps, Tangled was up against Voyage of the Dawn Treader and Yogi Bear,

Not even remotely close to the hype, buzz and online/social media activity surrounding Sing. Voyage of The Dawn Treader is particularly irrelevant, puhleez.

And before you tell me that it's different because it's Illumination, every recent Illumination film has gone against a Pixar film, which never experienced any drastic falls. Specifically, Monsters U, on a similar trajectory as Moana, went against Despicable Me 2 in its 3rd weekend and went on to make 70 million more.

They had all banked much more at that point than Moana has. In some cases, hundreds of millions more!

AND before you tell me that was summer where every day plays like a weekend, we're going into the holiday season, which is known as the leggiest time of the year for movies AND every day ALSO plays like a weekend.

A mere 10-day window as opposed to two months(or more) in the summer.

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So now if anyone has any counters that are actually backed by past history, math, and/or fact and not saying "but..but..Illumination..Sing..", be my guest.

I believe I just did. Illumination having a Christmas is a game changer, and especially one as hotly anticipated as Sing. Disregard this coming smash at your own peril, I guess.

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Fair enough, OpinionsByLennon!

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@pisku

Your Overseas prediction would have to hinge on an extraordinary performance in Japan. It's flopped in South Korea and that's a bad sign. S. Korea was a fantastic forerunner for Frozen as they really come out for Disney Princess Musicals...but not this time I'm afraid. It's also bombing in Germany. You can add that territory as another major casualty along with the disasterous run in the UK.

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