Movies that cost 150 million + making under 500 million getting a sequel
Mad Max Fury Road: 378.9 million on a 150 million budget
Wreck It Ralph: 471.2 million on a 165 million budget
Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian: 419.7 million on a 225 million budget
Pacific Rim: 411 million in a 190 million budget
Mission Impossible 3: 397 million on a 150 million budget
Star Trek: 385 million on a 150 million budget
X-Men Origins: Wolverine: 373 million on a 150 million budget
X-Men: First Class: 353 million on a 160 million budget
Thor: 449 million on a 150 million budget
Batman Begins: 374 million on a 150 million budget
Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian: 413 million on a 150 million budget
Star Trek Into Darkness: 467 million on a 190 million budget
How to Train Your Dragon: 494 million worldwide on a 165 million budget
A sequel isn't made unless a movie is considered profitable. Ignoring the fact that Moana is almost certainly going to pass 500 million worldwide, it's going to end up in a range that generally proves to be clearly profitable for movies. It's going to end above Thor and Captain America: The First Avenger. It's likely going to end up around How to Train Your Dragon. It's probably going to be above every damn movie on this list.
And that's before accounting for the albums and merchandising that have/will be sold.
No but continue to talk about how much of a flop Moana is and how it won't make Disney any money, ignoring all bounds of logic and sense.