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Analyzing Moana's Box Office Performance: Part 2 - Was it a Disappointment?

posted 8 years ago by troyplafond
45 replies | jump to latest

I'm posting this earlier than I expected because I have time now.

This is the second in a 3-part series analyzing the box office performance of Moana.

The first part dealt with whether or not Moana is a flop. This second part deals with whether or not Moana was a disappointment. The third part deals with the bigger picture (Sing, Disney vs Illumination, etc).

Throughout these 3 posts, I will be analyzing Moana, hit on many (hopefully all) of the related subjects mentioned throughout this board, and hopefully quell the sounds of doom that many posters are making.

The decision to split this into 3 parts is to mark clear differences in ideas, and to make the overall point less of a word wall.

So without further ado, here we go!

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Short answer: yes.

Long answer:

First of all, I have split this post into 2 sections. The first part deals with the nature of disappointment and how it is a disappointment when using comps. The second part deals with it being a disappointment in comparison to pro projections.

1. Flop vs Disappointment:
I stressed this in my prior post, but I'll cover it again here. A flop is very different then a disappointment. Flops tend to be disappointments, but not every movie that disappoints is inherently a flop. A disappointment will break even or net a small profit, but it isn't the hit that everyone expects it to be.

Several key examples of this:
a. Age of Ultron. Obviously, Age of Ultron was a highly successful movie. However, thanks to the sky-high grosses of The Avengers, people's expectations were through the roof. Most were expecting a worldwide total of 1.6 billion, and arguably logical projections went as high as 2 billion. That it came in at 1.4 billion, below that of The Avengers, was a bit surprising to many and disappointing, but it still was an absolutely massive hit.
b. X-Men - Apocalypse: Coming off the hot buzz from Days of Future Past, Apocalypse was expected to keep X-Men on a strong winning streak. Most were expecting at least 200 million domestic, and a similar total worldwide to Days of Future Past. It's the second lowest team X-Men movie domestically, disappointing many. A strong overseas performance allowed it to reach just shy of 550 million worldwide, the second highest team-up, but many were expecting bigger things out of the biggest X-Men to date.

While we can't use Age of Ultron for a comparison point, Apocalypse rings familiar.

2. Frozen.

You may or may not have heard of this obscure movie from 2013, but of you haven't, it made a slight 1.2 billion dollars worldwide. Moana was the first post-Frozen Disney princess movie, and expectations were adjusted accordingly. Now, obviously no one expected Moana to do nearly as well as Frozen. However, it did have quite a big comedown for the brand.

3. Comedown:
Moana is likely to come in around 550 million. You can argue that point to the end of the Earth, but that's relevant only in terms of slight math differences here. Using that 550 million total, it comes in just about 57% below the total of Frozen. If you really want to argue that 500 million is more likely, then it's closer to 61%. No matter which percentage I use, I'm looking at a similar range of comps.

4. Comps:
Here I'm looking for movies that dropped 50% (1/2) to 66% (2/3) from their prior installment, or prior movie in the brand. This is my range because, frankly, it's an easy range to spot.

Here are some movies I've found in this range:
Ice Age: Collision Course, The Good Dinosaur (Pixar is a brand, comedown used from Inside Out), Independence Day: Resurgence, Allegiant, Ted 2, Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows, and Alice Throught The Looking Glass (slightly higher than range).

Now, this argument falls apart a little bit on the premise that many of these are not brands such as Disney princesses, but instead direct sequels in a franchise. However, the audience for Disney princess movies remains so constant that it might as well be sequels. Now, these were all differing levels of success, but in general, that's not company you want to be around.

5. But....Frozen was a cultural phenomenon!
I've used this argument too. However, you would think that would raise the profile of the next Disney princess movie, right? This argument is often used to say that Moana isn't doing so bad, but it also can be used to show that it isn't doing so good.

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Pro Projections!

This section will be significantly shorter, because there's much less to dissect here.

For the most part, pros do not project the final gross of movies, and instead focus on a weekly basis. The most notable exception is proboxoffice.

They projected Moana to end with 300 million domestic. Because they didn't state any potential worldwide disadvantages, we can assume that they expected a usual Disney domestic-overseas split.

The usual for Disney is 33-66.

300 million would then translate to 600 million overseas and 900 million worldwide.

Moana isn't coming close to any of those numbers. It'll probably close a smidge over 250 million domestic, but it's not getting much higher than 300 million overseas and 550 million worldwide, unless Japan is a huge break-out.

For the record, I think that this was a slightly unreasonably optimistic projection. However, being in the industry, they know more than I do. This just didn't click as well as it should've overseas. The reason can be argued all that we want, but in the end, it just didn't happen. For the record, I don't think a different release date with different competition would have made a difference, but that's a discussion for a later date (tomorrow).

All other websites use Disney's projections up until release week. You can argue it's a success for surpassing Disney's expectations, but studios lowball estimates so they can almost always claim success.

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You may notice some slight, unstated references to Illumination movies. I'm refraining from discussing them until tomorrow's post, because tomorrow's is about what the overall meh performance for Moana means as a whole for Disney (spoilers: not much), which Illumination ties very closely with.

And for those who think this is too early to be discussing this, that is because tomorrow's post will be my final post on this board (at least regarding box office), as I don't see anything else that I can do and am getting uncharacteristically annoyed by some here. I'll respond to comments for that one too, but after that, I'm done.

Sound off in the comments below what you think, if you think I left anything out, and again please leave out Illumination as much as possible until tomorrow's post (which, depending on my schedule, may actually come Saturday morning EST).

[–] !!!deleted!!! (69989714) 8 years ago

I was hoping Moana could do at least 700 million worldwide.

[–] Hold_the_door 8 years ago

That would have been possible if there wasn't that much competition, but it still looks like it's going to end up with $600 million plus, so it's still going to be successful.

[–] igfsda3 8 years ago

It has to make 600 million worldwide just to break even. YOu can deny that all you want but this is pretty pathetic.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

I'm not discussing Moana's profitability in this post. If you want to read my prior post and then find me sources that disprove my post then you can come back with those. I won't believe that until I see a source, which not a single person has provided.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Moana was the first post-Frozen Disney princess movie, and expectations were adjusted accordingly. Now, obviously no one expected Moana to do nearly as well as Frozen.

How can you say that "no one expected Moana to do nearly as well as Frozen"? Uhhh...there was a lot of anticipation for this film and Disney produced huge amounts of merchandise for this.

Let's talk domestically. The Secret Life of Pets just came within $32 million of Frozen's gross and "no one expected" Moana to get within this range? The followup Disney Princess Musical????

Puhleeez.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

1. Expecting an original movie to become among the top 15 movies of all time is illogical and frankly somewhat delusional.
2. You need to consider worldwide, SLOP was 400 million behind Frozen worldwide.
3. And finally, throughout this post, I argue that Moana IS a disappointment. You can argue whether or not that Moana was expected to make as much as Frozen all we want, but if you argue that Moana was supposed to make as much as Frozen, then my overall point is strengthened, that Moana is a disappointment.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

And finally, throughout this post, I argue that Moana IS a disappointment. You can argue whether or not that Moana was expected to make as much as Frozen all we want, but if you argue that Moana was supposed to make as much as Frozen, then my overall point is strengthened, that Moana is a disappointment.

Understood that Moana is a box-office disappointment. I have been saying that for many weeks now. To say that "no one expected it to get near Frozen" is laughable.

Just what is your definition of "near"?

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

You have an original Illumination IP(SLoP) that came within $32 million domestically. No...that's not global, but for Chrissakes...the U.S. is the most important single market(still).

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

But your argument there falls apart because it isn't global. It came 32 million behind Frozen in the US, which I will concede is very impressive. But it's also 400 million behind worldwide, and that's a big difference.

And we aren't even talking about Illumination here. We're talking about Moana.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

I didn't realize the word in question for you was near.

Near is pretty broad, I will admit. I think any projection over a billion would have been overly optimistic.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

I didn't realize the word in question for you was near.

Near is pretty broad, I will admit. I think any projection over a billion would have been overly optimistic.

Okay...fair enough...but Zootopia just came within $60 million of Frozen domestically. Moana is going to be $100 million behind even that.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

And yes I did use my qualifiers wrong. Obviously there are some people who expected this to get near Frozen, just like some people expected Civil War to make 2 billion and some people expected Dawn of Justice to pass The Avengers, but for the most part no one expected a Frozen-like total.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Obviously there are some people who expected this to get near Frozen

That's correct. I certainly didn't know if it would get "close" to Frozen but I definitely thought that if it was good/great in quality(which it was imo)
it could at least achieve Secret Life of Pets numbers, globally.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

And I don't think that's an unreasonable expectation. I had it finishing around 800 million worldwide.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

You need to consider worldwide, SLOP was 400 million behind Frozen worldwide.

And Moana will, most likely, end up at least $300 million behind that.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

But none of my argument is even focusing on Illumination. Yes I did mention that SLOP was 400 million behind Frozen worldwide, but none of that matters. So what if Illumination has successful films? That doesn't disqualify lower grossing Disney movies from also being successful.

Just because you don't like Illumination doesn't mean the whole damn world doesn't have to not like them. People have different tastes than you. Illumination movies will oitgross Disney movies, and Disney movies will outgross Illumination movies. You need to find a way to accept that, because people freaking love Illumination just like people love Disney.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

But none of my argument is even focusing on Illumination.

Understood...but my point is that how much animated films can potentially make in this day and age and that a film of Moana's quality and being under the Disney banner and also being the followup Disney Princess Musical to Frozen makes it's performance very disappointing.

I know that this can't be what Disney was expecting.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

And I'm not even trying to argue that. Moana is a thoroughly disappointing performance, barring a potential Japan break-out.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

And I'm not even trying to argue that. Moana is a thoroughly disappointing performance, barring a potential Japan break-out.

Ahhh...you know what? You and I are really on the same page. I think we just view it in slightly different ways in regards to just how it will affect WDAS in the future. I'm more pessimistic and you seem to be a little more optimistic.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

That's what my final post tomorrow is about. I've got some somewhat obscure and oft-missed facts that I'm gathering that could definitely change your view of the future, regardless of whether Moana made money or not.

I also have one particularly topic that's definitely going to be controversial, which I'm really looking forward to seeing your thoughts on.

[–] Syrngfsse2 8 years ago

When disneys films cost at least 3 times of illuminations yet fall behind the grosses of those films, those are indeed flops. Moana is one of them.

Also, the same people that like illumination voted for trump. Doesnt mean either are good.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

That's what is called a relative disappointment. It disappointed relatively to movies that it should have performed similarly to. It did not flop, a flop is a movie that lost the studio money, which, as outlined in my prior post, is a very unlikely situation for Moana to end up in.

And you can say whatever you want about it's true budget or what nonsense, but I don't believe it without a source.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Hey Troy...just want to say I appreciate your contributions to this board and I hope you stick around for the South Korea and Japan openings.

I'm sorry if I am one of the posters that have driven you from this board.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

I'll probably lurk in the shadows a little, and I'll definitely comment again if Japan breaks out big, which isn't unreasonable.

Your constant pessimism can get on my nerves, but I feel I can actually have a discussion with you. There are other users that are downright antagonistic and run away whenever I try to bring in logic, and then continually attack. These users are the ones that have driven me, not you.

And even if I don't return here I'm sure I'll see you at the Beauty and the Beast board.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

And even if I don't return here I'm sure I'll see you at the Beauty and the Beast board .

Hahaha...thanks for the laugh, my friend! You know me too well!

😉

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

That board should definitely be interesting too. I feel like it has a lot of potential upside since Beauty and the Beast is arguably the most popular of their originals, but it's also probably the most love-story focused, along with Cinderella. I still feel it goes closer to Jungle Book (or even higher), but it should be really interesting.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

I feel like it has a lot of potential upside since Beauty and the Beast is arguably the most popular of their originals, but it's also probably the most love-story focused, along with Cinderella. I still feel it goes closer to Jungle Book (or even higher), but it should be really interesting.

As I've said before, I don't expect Jungle Book grosses as I don't think it will have the 4-quadrant appeal that Jungle Book had. Dare I say it's more "girly"?

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

I definitely see that argument. That's why Cinderella made comparatively less than the other live action Disney ones.

However, the argument can definitely, easily be made that Frozen was more girly, and look how high that went.

And I think it can definitely be argued that Jungle Book was more male-oriented.

Also, the marketing push for Beauty and the Beast seems much stronger than the push for The Jungle Book. At least from what I've seen, it's generating near unprecedented amounts of social media buzz. Like, it was one of the top trends in the US on several occasions where new pictures were released. New pictures.

And obviously this is incredibly anecdotal, but I as a dude am infinitely more excited for Beauty and the Beast than I am for Jungle Book.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

I definitely see that argument. That's why Cinderella made comparatively less than the other live action Disney ones.

I would think that it will open bigger than Cinderella. It's quality will dictate it's legs after that, obviously. Cinderella will be hard to top in that regard, as I thought it was a wonderful film.

However, the argument can definitely, easily be made that Frozen was more girly, and look how high that went

It was, initially, marketed as a slapstick animated film for all audiences. The zeitgeist was tapped somehow with little competition and an infectious soundtrack that surprised moviegoers and WOM was insane. Plus...there was a "winter" theme during the holiday season. I think Moana may have been a bit too exotic.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

The fact that they decided to release a movie like Moana in the winter is just downright bizarre to me. I get that they like the release date, and should definitely utilize it for future movies, but this was absolutely a summer movie.

I think Beauty and the Beast is gonna have a massive opening. I think it could open to 125 million. However, I don't think it'll have fantastic legs for a family movie, just because it's so heavily anticipated. I think it does 125 million onto 375 million domestic, and maybe a smidge over/under a billion worldwide.

I'm probably being overly optimistic though. It looks wonderful.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

I think it does 125 million onto 375 million domestic, and maybe a smidge over/under a billion worldwide.

If it does that it will be an unqualified success.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

Oh yes absolutely. I definitely have it becoming a through-and-through success.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

The fact that they decided to release a movie like Moana in the winter is just downright bizarre to me. I get that they like the release date, and should definitely utilize it for future movies, but this was absolutely a summer movie.

I have to assume this is what it comes down to. Even with some time to cool down (maybe not the final scores, but close to it), Moana outscores Frozen on IMDb, RT audience, RT critic, and Metascore. So, theoretically, it was overall better received than even Frozen. And both times I saw it, everyone in the theater seemed to be pretty happy with it. So I really don't understand why it ended up with such lower totals than Frozen did. Not saying I expected Frozen numbers, because I've been one of the biggest proponents saying Frozen is unreachable for the time being, but just a quality comparison vs an earnings comparison is rather staggering. So the only thing I can think of is content vs timing.

I think Beauty and the Beast is gonna have a massive opening. I think it could open to 125 million. However, I don't think it'll have fantastic legs for a family movie, just because it's so heavily anticipated. I think it does 125 million onto 375 million domestic, and maybe a smidge over/under a billion worldwide.

I'm going to have to side with QueenFan on the Beauty and the Beast discussion. I think Jungle Book was more of a surprise success, and I didn't expect anywhere near what it ended up with. I think Beauty and the Beast will perform more similar to Cinderella, with the added caviat that it is a more popular movie, generally, and will therefore gross more. I see it ending somewhere between $700-$800M, personally.

HOWEVER, I do also have a frame of mind that is making me think more optimistically about it that I haven't fully caught onto yet, but is working its way into my brain. Which is, that Cinderella was almost a brand establishing movie, and Jungle Book was a continuation of that brand, and is why it earned so much more. What do I mean by this? Disney is a very established brand! Cinderella established nothing! Well, hear me out.

Of the "live action Disney remakes", we have Alice in Wonderland, Maleficent, Cinderella, and Jungle Book, unless I'm missing one. Alice in Wonderland and Maleficent were both very different from their source material, so you can almost cast those aside out of the live action remakes. So, in a way, Cinderella was the beginning of the more faithful adaptations. Then we got Jungle Book extending that brand (it turned out to be very different, but the trailers didn't really imply that). So, if Beauty and the Beast feeds off that, maybe it could come close to or even exceed Jungle Book. I guess we'll just have to wait and see. It will definitely be a fun one to keep up with.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

I agree that I'm probably being too bullish on this. I think that it's much more likely to end up just above Cinderella, but the buzz on it is just out of this world.

[–] corazonbandido55 8 years ago

I'm not surprised that Moana was released in the winter. Movies released in Nov-Dec tend to have better legs than movies released in the shark tank that is the summer box office. Moana would have suffered more if it was released in the summer IMO.

There are still a few markets left, but I would be shocked if Moana broke out big in Japan, since Princess and the Frog didn't do so hot over there either. That said, I don't consider Moana a flop or even a disappointment. But I do think it's at the low end of successful. Hopefully Moana's performance doesn't throw cold water over Disneys ambitions with future princesses of color.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

It doesn't thematically fit in with winter. It's true that winter movies are leggier, but they also tend to open smaller. Also, plenty of summer family movies are leggy. See: Inside Out.

Moana is a movie that focuses on sailing, and the ocean, and the beach, and volcanoes, and those are all things that tend to be associated with summer. It would be like releasing Frozen over the Fourth of July (although Frozen has a bit more focus on the seasonal themes than Moana).

It could go either way in Japan. Recent Disney movies have done well there. Recent Disney movies have also had overall better performances overseas too though.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

BATB is very hard to peg, especially internationally. Due to Harry Potter, I'm assuming Emma Watson will be a marquee draw(particularly in Europe). Just from the trailers, it appears to be a much more expensive production than Cinderella so if it finishes just "a bit above Cinxerella" I would definitely consider that a disappointment.

All things considered, I don't think Disney will be satisfied with a domestic total much under 300 million. 700-800 million worldwide is probably the floor they are counting on and anything above that will be gravy.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

I thought Cinderella made 650 million as opposed to 550 million worldwide, and that's why I said a bit above Cinderella. I can't see it going much below 700 million.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Oh, I definitely understand where you're coming from. I've seen a lot of people tipping this for upper $900s or even a billion, so I consider myself in the minority, honestly, for being more pessimistic about how much it will make. Obviously, as a Disney fan who's looking forward to some of my favorites being remade in live action, I hope it does well and continues to bolster Disney to keep making more of these. I'm particularly excited about Mulan in 2018. That's one of my all time favorites, and I can't wait to see what they do with Mushu and the Cricket (if they leave either of those out, I might cry lol)

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

Mulan is one I'm also particularly excited for, second only to The Little Mermaid, which has the best soundtrack of any Disney movie IMO.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Oh my gosh, are they officially making The Little Mermaid?! That is amazing! I love the Little Mermaid, and agree with you that it has the best soundtrack out of all the Disney movies, except for maybe Moana now.

Oh, heck! I just looked it up, and saw this:

"The music for Disney's live-action Little Mermaid will reportedly feature a mix of your fave songs and new ones from the genius behind the original soundtrack, Alan Menken, and Hamilton scribe, Lin-Manuel Miranda."

If Lin-Manuel Miranda does as well with these as he did with Moana, and Alan Menken turns it to gold like he does with everything else he touches, this movie will have me in love when it comes out!

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

I feel like it has a lot of potential upside since Beauty and the Beast is arguably the most popular of their originals, but it's also probably the most love-story focused, along with Cinderella.

I've said it before and I'll say it again...for better or worse...the lack of anyromance at all in Moana has hindered it's box-office. I'm not saying that it had to be between Moana and Maui,...just with someone. I think that has taken away from potential non-family, female moviegoers.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

I guess I could see that argument. To be fair, I don't have any other reasoning for why it didn't do as well as it could've. However, it seems like a lot of people also really seemed to enjoy that there was no romance, and romantic sub-plot is generally one of the most loathed phrases when it comes to movies.

I can definitely see the point though.

[–] phe_de 8 years ago

The problem with classifying a movie as disappointment is: To whom?

Disappointment means: Not meeting expectations; or more accurately: Staying below expectations. In that regard, we can only measure with which expectations Moana started its run, and the only expectations that matter are those of the Disney executives.

Did Disney expect it to become the next Frozen? Or did Disney just release a princess movie in an exotic setting, more interested in telling a Polynesian story than in making money?

Unless you work for Disney (and I assume you don't) or know people who are Disney executives, you have no way of knowing it. Google is very quiet about what expectations Disney had.

Moana may be a box office disappointment for all those who wanted it to become the next Frozen or Zootopia; but if they are not Disney executives, it doesn't matter.

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Everything is possible, and nothing is sure.

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

I've been saying since the beginning that Sing would criple Moana in the box office and would very likely outperform it. And was always met with various replies about Sing having a lower RT score and audience score to which I always said wouldn't matter one single bit. Kids simply don't care about what critics have to say!

With that said I have never called Moana a flop. I'll save that one for Kubo and the two strings. However is Moana bellow expectations? Yes, it certainly is! If you asked anyone a year ago what Disney film would be the highlight of the year and a money printer no one would of said Zootopia. And back then if you'd said Zootopia would make likely a hundred million more domestically and practically double world wide people would of laughed at you. But this might very well be the outcome we're looking at. And that does make it a bit of a disappointment coming off of the heels of Frozen and all the hype this film was generating a year ago.

Soon we'll have the Golden Globes among us. My guess lies with Zootopia as it's clearly the front runner for the Oscar. But the Globes are a small group based out side (just 90, compared to 6,000 in The Academy) of the USA and you never really know what can happen with them. They claim to be the mirror ball of the Oscars but rairly do they get it right and the Academy tends to not care what they think. More so than often The Academy uses this to see how others look and what kind of speech they give. So Moana has a small chance to pick up this one and if it does it will boost the film. For that we'll just have to wait and see though.