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Analyzing Moana's Box Office Performance: Part 3 - Will it affect Disney?

posted 8 years ago by troyplafond
36 replies | jump to latest

This is again early, because I'm home today.

This is the third in a 3-part series analyzing the box office performance of Moana.

The first part dealt with whether or not Moana is a flop. This second part dealt with whether or not Moana was a disappointment. This third part deals with the bigger picture (Sing, Disney vs Illumination, etc).

Throughout these 3 posts, I will be analyzing Moana, hit on many (hopefully all) of the related subjects mentioned throughout this board, and hopefully quell the sounds of doom that many posters are making.

The decision to split this into 3 parts is to mark clear differences in ideas, and to make the overall point less of a word wall.

So without further ado, here we go!

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Short answer: no

1. The elephant in the room:

In these posts, I've strayed away from discussing Illumination, because they ultimately weren't relevant to whether Moana is a flop/disappointment (although it can be argued that you can use recent Illumination movies to show Moana as a relative disappointment, which I will willingly cede to if everyone moves on from that point). However, when discussing Moana and the future of WDAS, I feel Illumination is essential to the conversation.

Secret Life of Pets finished around 850 million worldwide and 350 million domestic. Unless anything drastically changes in either extreme direction, Sing will likely finish in the same range. They have announced plans to turn SLOP into a franchise, and Despicable Me has already turned into a franchise that can score 1 billion +. Whether they just happened to strike gold 3 times or are becoming a true force in the industry is still debatable. For the sakes of this argument, I'm going to say they become a force.

So, we now have Disney competing against a company that scores big on arguably sub-par and more low-effort franchises.

2. Sound familiar?

This situation sounds highly familiar. DreamWorks formed to become the anti-Disney, and started churning out movies that were very different from Disney but ultimately nearly as successful if not moreso, through franchises such as Shrek and Madagascar. Some of these were low-effort, others were actually quite good.

In response to this, Disney tried making a few DreamWorks-esque movies. Remember Meet the Robinson's? They did a few others that other people can list off in the comments, but none of them were ultimately very successful.

3. Fool Me Once...Shame on You....

Disney already tried to make movies that were more like another up and coming studio. It didn't work then. Why would it work now? Maybe tastes have changed, sure, but I can't see it happening.

Besides, it doesn't matter if Illumination is making more money.

Because everyone is forgetting about something.

4. Studios

Before reaching the big point I want everyone to take after this, I should remind everyone about studios and animation movies. Disney owns 2 major animation studios, WDAS and Pixar. Universal also owns 2 major, Illumination and DreamWorks, which they recently acquired.

5. Pixar vs WDAS

A quick look at Box Office Mojo shows that Pixar has been more successful than WDAS, especially in recent years. They barely miss, except for The Good Dinosaur. On the other hand, WDAS has a couple of whiffs, in Bolt and Meet the Robinson's, as well as a recently disappointing performance by Moana despite an arguably strong domestic run.

6. Illumination vs DreamWorks

A quick look at Box Office Mojo shows that Illumination has been more successful than DreamWorks, especially in recent years. They barely miss, except for arguably Hop. On the other hand, DreamWorks have a couple of whiffs, in Flushed Away and Turbo, as well as a recently disappointing worldwide performance by Home despite an arguably strong domestic run.

6. You're Comping the Wrong Animation Studios........

Do you see where I'm heading with this?

Why are we comparing the second biggest animation studio at Disney to the biggest at Universal?

Shouldn't we be comparing Pixar to Illumination and WDAS to DreamWorks?

This isn't to say that WDAS is the actual equivalent of DreamWorks, but to say that relatively it is. DreamWorks is the second biggest studio for animation at Fox, and WDAS is the second biggest animation studio at Disney

7. Moana vs DreamWorks

If Moana was released at DreamWorks, it would crack the top 10 worldwide, as Moana looks to finish right around where Puss in Boots ended worldwide. This is out of 33 other movies.

It also would be the 4th highest domestically.

In terms of original movies, it would be the 3rd biggest worldwide behind Kung Fu Panda and The Croods, and the 2nd biggest domestically behind Shrek.

8. Relatively, Moana is a hit

Looking at it from this renewed perspective, Moana is a hit. WDAS is not Disney's Illumination, that's Pixar. If WDAS's equivalent released Moana, it would be a hit for them.

Plus, WDAS has been much more successful these past years than DreamWorks. WDAS has Frozen, Big Hero 6, Tangled, Wreck it Ralph, and Moana this decade. The only original DreamWorks movies to hit these heights this decade are How to Train Your Dragon, a fantastic franchise, and The Croods, whose sequel was recently canceled.

9. Disney's Passion

Big animated musicals from Disney have been around for so long. Clearly, they are Disney's passion projects. Disney also has the two biggest franchises in the world, Star Wars and the MCU, as well as Pixar and their live action originals. Even if every single musical performs like Moana from now on, they have more than enough money coming in from other sources to continue to support them.

The big Disney musical like Moana isn't going anywhere.

And if Disney is going to make some Illumination-esque movies, they have the resources to do both those and their musicals.

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Short answer tallies:

Is Moana a flop: NO

Is Moana a disappointment for Disney: YES

Is Moana a disappointment relative to Illumination: YES

Is Moana a disappointment relative to DreamWorks: NO

Will Moana's disappointment affect Disney as a whole: NO

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That's all for this. As usual, feel free to comment below what I may have missed or misanalyzed.

After responding to these comments and comments still coming in on my prior post, I will no longer be discussing box office for Moana and likely will be off the board for until the Japan release, which I will likely come back for (albeit with a much more bulky ignore list).

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Just as an aside, I want to point out that when Disney bought Pixar in 2006 that they put John Lasseter in as creative head of BOTH studios. This has been a very successful strategy...particularly for WDAS.

Universal is doing the same thing with Chris Meledandri, who is unquestionably the hottest name in animation at the moment. Under his leadership, I would expect a total revitalization of DreamWorks Animation.

Universal will strategically place both studios films all over the release map, and with Meldandri's Golden Touch, there could be even rougher waters for Disney in the coming years. While DreamWorks films have been more expensive than Illumination films, they are still quite a bit cheaper than both WDAS and Pixar films. Under Meledandri's watch, I would expect to see even more trimming of DWA budgets that are more in line with Illumination's. It's been an incredibly successful business model(even if I personally hate the end product).

Crowding Disney on the release calender like they have with Illumination releases near to Disney's has considerably cut those film's legs. It can be argued that Illumination is hurt by this competition but they definitely can afford it more than Disney as their production costs are so much lower. Now, with DWA in their arsenal, DreamWorks films will be strategically placed to bolster Universal even more than when they were just distributed by Paramount and Fox.

Long story short...Disney has never faced a competitor like this...a double-barreled competitor with a commercial genius of the likes of Meledandri. They make cheap crap and the masses turn out in numbers equal to(and many times above) WDAS and Pixar. It's a negagative downward pressure on Disney and they are a business. It doesn't matter if Marvel and Star Wars are doing well for them, they are not going to indefinitely invest resources in films like Moana if they barely break even or just eek out a small profit when they see Universal making cheap garbage and making money hand over fist. At least when DWA was their primary rival, there was an "arms race" between the two companys of who had the most cutting edge visuals...DreamWorks aimed for Pixar quality, make-your-jaw-drop stuff. Now...with Illumination...it may become a race to the bottom.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

Disney tried this before with DreamWorks, and it didn't work for them. They will not be racing to the bottom.

The absolute worst thing I could see happening is that they decide to lower their budgets. Worst case. There's absolutely no purpose in them intentionally lowering the quality of their movies, because people aren't going to Illumination movies because they're bad. If they make cheap movies like Illumination, odds are, they're still going to be damn good movies.

[–] Hold_the_door 8 years ago

The thing is, we won't have an idea about Moana's total gross until Spring.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

While I agree with your overarching point of Moana's BO not affecting what Disney does or doesn't do in the future, I must disagree with you. Since 2010, Pixar has released 7 films:

Toy Story 3: $1.07B
Cars 2: $562M
Brave: $540M
Monsters University: $744M
Inside Out: $857M
The Good Dinosaur: $332M
Finding Dory: $1.03B

Likewise, since 2010, WDAS has released 7 films:

Tangled: $592M
Winnie the Pooh: $46M
Wreck-It Ralph: $471M
Frozen: $1.27B
Big Hero 6: $658M
Zootopia: $1.02B
Moana: Proj $550M

Pixar Total: $5.135B
WDAS Total: $4.607B, despite Winnie the Pooh being one of their seven, and it not really meaning to do super well. So it is less, but we're projecting one at 550, which I think will really get up to 600 or so, and including Winnie the Pooh. And that's all the way back to 2010.

If we look at more recently (2013 and on) you can really tell which is the more successful. WDAS has earned more each year from 2013 except for 2015, when they didn't release a movie. And the totals from 2013 and on are in Disney's favor:

WDAS: Frozen, Big Hero 6, Zootopia and Moana (assuming $550M) for grand total of 3.498B
Pixar: Monsters U, Inside Out, The Good Dinosaur, and Finding Dory for grand total of 2.963

And looking at this year alone, Disney put out a billion dollar earner and Moana, which I believe will hit $600M. Pixar only had a sequel, which admittedly did earn a billion. I dunno, maybe I'm biased. But for me, WDAS seems to be the more valued studio at this point. But maybe I'm looking at it only with the right glasses to make it seem that way.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

I do see your point, which is something I was wrestling with during this writeup.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

Part of it is that Pixar also looks more promising when you look to the future. They have belated sequels, every one of which has done well (Monsters U at 750 million to Finding Dory and Toy Story 3 passing a billion). They also have the Cars franchise, which is a merchandising money printer. And they have a pretty great track record on originals, from Up to Wall-E to Inside Out, so long as they stay, you know, original (The Good Dinosaur).

On the other hand, WDAS can score mid-level hits like Moana, Big Hero 6, and Wreck it Ralph between 450 and 650 million fairly regularly, but Pixar hits that upper level much more consistently.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

You really think Cars is that well done? I always considered it to be the worst Pixar franchise, and am thoroughly confused as to why they're making another. The sequels do tend to do very well, but Cars 3...I just really don't see it being a hit. Their originals have been top notch for sure (IO is AMAZING!!!), but I don't know if Coco will manage to burst through the non-Hispanic markets. Hardly anyone in most of the major markets (America, China, UK, etc.) knows or cares what Dia De Los Muertos is or even means. It will be a pretty difficult sell for Pixar. I think next year could be a slow year for them. Though, that's kind of irrelevant in the grand scheme of which is more successful, because so far, WDAS has 0 on slate for next year (which makes me very sad).

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

I agree it's the worst Pixar franchise, as most do. However, it's incredibly popular among kids, and merchandise flies off the shelves. And frankly, I think Cars 3 looks amazing.

I have a slight Pixar bias though, I'm very willing to admit that.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

I agree it's the worst Pixar franchise, as most do. However, it's incredibly popular among kids, and merchandise flies off the shelves. And frankly, I think Cars 3 looks amazing.

I have a slight Pixar bias though, I'm very willing to admit that.

Hmm, interesting. I've never really been able to find any numbers or been all that interested, honestly, in keeping up with merchandise sales, so I guess that's why it escaped my radar. I don't know what to think about Cars 3. I actually liked the first Cars a decent bit, but was extremely bored by the second one. The third one has one of the most well done teasers I think I've ever seen, but it doesn't really give much of the plot away or tell me whether it could be a good movie or not.

And in light of your confession, I will also admit that I've got the opposite bias. I love some Pixar things (Finding Nemo, Inside Out, etc.) and actually thought Brave and The Good Dinosaur were extremely underrated, but I've always loved WDAS much more. I just can't get over those lovely musicals! And their recent streak of non-musicals (Wreck-It Ralph, Big Hero 6, and Zootopia) have been excellent as well (thank goodness we can put the days of Chicken Little and Home on the Range behind us).

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

I'm pretty young (16 and a half), and when I was a young child, that's when WDAS was going through their rough patch. I was exposed to their musicals of course, but I was growing up right in the middle of peak Pixar, which inevitably lead to my bias.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

That makes sense. I'm a little older at 25, so I grew up during the Disney Renaissance while Pixar was just starting out.

[–] !!!deleted!!! (69989714) 8 years ago

Even if cars 3 regains a lot of the goodwill lost (and I'm confident it will happen) with critics and fan reactions, I just see this being the star trek beyond of 2016. 150 million domestic, 250 million international, 400 million worldwide and a likely writeoff for disney and pixar.

The tons and tons of merchandise sold for cars didn't translate to a huge increase for cars 2, only 100 million more worldwide and 50 million less domestic compared to the first. Plus Cars 2 got bad word of mouth taking away the goodwill (already not as much as the other pixar franchises) from the first cars. Then there were the planes films, which, while not produced by pixar, is considered part of the cars universe and took away more goodwill from the cars franchise.

So even if cars 3 does turn out to be great, I just don't see this doing well at the box office. Despicable me 3 comes out just 2 weeks after and that has more of a solid ground than cars. Even if minions was considered a bit of a letdown for many, it still doesn't have as bad word of mouth as cars 2 had.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

So even if cars 3 does turn out to be great, I just don't see this doing well at the box office. Despicable me 3 comes out just 2 weeks after and that has more of a solid ground than cars. Even if minions was considered a bit of a letdown for many, it still doesn't have as bad word of mouth as cars 2 had.

I tend to agree. BTW...I think Cars 2 was much better than Minions in every way...but that's just me.

😉

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

WDAS has 0 on slate for next year (which makes me very sad).

But 2 for 2018. I'm really intrigued by Gigantic.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

I am too.

2018 is gonna be the year of Pixar though. Incredibles 2 could very well be the biggest Pixar movie of all time. I wouldn't be surprised if it made a run at Frozen too. It has all the nostalgic charm of Finding Dory and Toy Story 3, which each surpassed a billion, and it's a superhero movie, the biggest genre today.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

I don't see it being able to make a run at Frozen, but I think it'll do incredibly well and can't wait to see it myself! I do love The Incredibles.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

I am interested to see what they do with Gigantic. Disney's strength does seem to be adapting fairy tales, however, correct me if I'm wrong, won't this be the first non-musical fairy tale adaptation? That will be interesting. And while I did like the charm of Wreck-It Ralph, I can't say I'm particularly psyched for Wreck-It Ralph 2.

[–] Hold_the_door 8 years ago

Wow Disney's animation division has grossed over $9 billion so far this decade? Adding MCU films, SW films and their remakes disney has made... Well above $20 billion in just 6 years? (Don't forget that Disney's first MCU film was The Avengers and they started SW just last year)

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Wow Disney's animation division has grossed over $9 billion so far this decade? Adding MCU films, SW films and their remakes disney has made... Well above $20 billion in just 6 years? (Don't forget that Disney's first MCU film was The Avengers and they started SW just last year)

Oh yeah, Disney as a whole is just an unstoppable giant at this point. Of 27 billion dollar movies, Disney has just under half of them with 13. That's ludicrous.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

It's 12, but that's still insane. The next highest is Universal and WB with 4 each.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

13 if you include The Phantom Menace, which they NOW own, but didn't distribute.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

I guess. I would exclude it just because that money from the box office run went to Fox then, and it's not Disney's victory, it's Fox's. I see why you would count it though.

[–] derekforce 8 years ago

Great posts troyplafond, very fun reads.

I still think Disney will be alright with this. They will do stuff like throw Moana in the character breakfast at the Polynesean, meet and greets, the dress thing she wore will sell at the parks...
Disney knows how to make money, and they are very good at it (says my stocks I bought at $18 each years and years ago... woooo!)

You also left out Zootopia for WDAS in your Dreamworks comparison.

And agree with QueenFanUSA.. Buying Pixar and sticking John Lasseter at the helm has done marvels for (almost) everything WDAS has done.

[–] troyplafond 8 years ago

Yeah, in the end, they're gonna be happy with Moana, even if they wish it made a little more at the box office.

I could definitely have brought in the other WDAS movies as comps, but I felt it would've just made the post a little too long.

Zootopia would be the biggest DreamWorks movie worldwide, and the second biggest domestically behind Shrek 2.

[–] Hold_the_door 8 years ago

Buying Pixar and sticking John Lasseter at the helm has done marvels for (almost) everything WDAS has done.

Pun intended?

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

They will do stuff like throw Moana in the character breakfast at the Polynesean,

As long as they keep Lilo & Stich in the mix! That's our traditional "first breakfast" for every one of our Disney vacations!

Dammit...now I wish I was there right now!

😛

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

I'm sure Lilo and Stitch will stay in the mix. They have a rather large part in some of the Disney Cruise Line shows (which all are top notch, by the way!). And the whole "Ohana means family. Family means no one gets left behind or forgotten" has been placed all over various Disney shows and merchandise, so I don't think it'll be forgotten (see what I did there?)

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

They have a rather large part in some of the Disney Cruise Line shows (which all are top notch, by the way!)

Sounds good! We're doing our first Disney cruise later this year...can't wait!

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Oh my goodness! You are in for such a treat. I freaking LOVE Disney Cruises!!! Which ship/trip are you going on? We did a couple back in the day when the Magic and Wonder were the only ones, but recently my family and I have just switched back and forth between Eastern and Western Caribbean cruises on the Fantasy. But this year we're going on the Panama Canal cruise on the Wonder, and I'm beyond excited. A 2 week cruise...I can't wait. I'm used to being all sad and depressed on day 6 because it's the last full day, but this time it'll only be halfway through! Woohoo!

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

The Wonder to Alaska.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Alaska is one of the very few states I've never been to so why not with Disney?

Is the Wonder really old? It's supposed to have been refurbished recently.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

We're going in August, btw.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

I've never been to Alaska either. It's definitely one that I want to do at some point. It's relatively old (1999), but has been refurbished very recently in its last dry dock (October of 2016), so, in a way, it's the newest one.

[–] 8 years ago

[deleted]

[–] !!!deleted!!! (69989714) 8 years ago

I agree. Definitely not a flop but while I wasn't expecting frozen numbers, it does feel a bit underwhelming when there have been animated films earlier in 2016 that have done much more. Zootopia, finding dory, Secret Life of Pets, even sing (after frozen) has more impressive box office runs.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

I agree. Definitely not a flop but while I wasn't expecting frozen numbers, it does feel a bit underwhelming when there have been animated films earlier in 2016 that have done much more. Zootopia, finding dory, Secret Life of Pets, even sing (after frozen) has more impressive box office runs.

Sing is killing it and will eclipse Moana's domestic total by the end of next week and will blaze past it's worldwide total very soon as well. It's hard to see Sing ending up below $800 worldwide.