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Domestic BO Winner Comes Down to This Weekend

posted 8 years ago by Zaphenzo
21 replies | jump to latest

Well, the smoke is starting to clear in the battle between Sing and Moana, domestically. Sing blasted off much quicker, but it is also dropping much quicker. Currently, Moana holds an $8M lead, and as far as the weekdays have gone, they've both fallen into the sub $1M category. For example, Moana raked in $402k and $371k on Wednesday and Thursday, while Sing raked in $959k and $898k. A difference of about $500k at this rate would take 16 days for Sing to pass Moana, and that's assuming that difference holds. So, if it weren't for weekends, I would already declare Moana the winner.

However, last weekend, Sing raked in on its benefit of being the more recent movie, with a $20.7M weekend over Moana's $6.3M weekend. Sing's weekend drop will be rather substantial barring anything crazy, while Moana's will probably be a slighter drop. The amount of the drops, I think, will determine which will end up the domestic BO winner. If Sing can make up enough ground and come within $1.5-2M of Moana, then I believe the weekdays will slowly let it crawl to the victory. However, if it's more than a $2M difference after this weekend, I believe Moana's lead will hold. So, this weekend's numbers, in my mind, will determine who will end up winning.

International and therefore WW is still a little impossible to predict, with an $80M difference, but Sing with a wealth of territories still to open in, and Moana a couple of key territories still to open in. It should be noted, though, that Moana's $80M lead is rather encouraging, considering Sing opened before it in a lot of key territories (Austria, Brazil, Germany, South Korea). Speaking of Brazil, Moana has a massive opening there, with a $4.6M opening weekend.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Sing is blitzing past Moana this weekend, domestically. International won't even be close. In the end, Sing will outgross Moana by the hundreds of millions

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

A very pessimistic outlook. I would like to have some real conversation this time, so I'll ask, why do you believe so? To start out the weekend, Sing grossed a little over $2M more than Moana did on Friday. So, if each movie follows a similar rise to Saturday and fall to Sunday percentage as they did last weekend, the average lead that Sing will have over the weekend will stay at about $2M per day. That means that after this weekend, Moana will still have a $2M lead, which, as I mentioned in the OP, does not bode very well for Sing's chances of passing Moana. Granted, a lot could change from last weekend to this weekend as far as rises into Saturday and falls into Sunday, and I could be wrong about Sing not overcoming a $2M deficit after this weekend. So nothing is certain, by any means. But following trends, at the moment, things look favorable for Moana.

And then internationally, I'd be very interested as to your reasoning. For all intents and purposes, South Korea and Japan should both be very large winners for Moana. Moana also started much higher than Sing did in Brazil, and is outgrossing Sing in most Polynesian and nearby territories:

New Zealand, both movies opened on 12-26
Moana: $3.1M
Sing: $1.4M

Malaysia, Moana opened one week earlier (12-1 as opposed to 12-8)
Moana: $2.7M
Sing: $1.6M

Phillipines, Moana opened on 11-30 while Sing opened last weekend, so instead of comparing current gross, let's compare OW
Moana OW: $1.7M
Sing OW: $0.4M

Other countries showing progress include Venezuela (nearly $4M for Moana, but not even $400k for Sing), India (Moana made 2x more in its OW than Sing has in the 2.5 weeks it's been out), and United Arab Emirates (Moana opened at about $550k and has legged it to $3.2M, while Sing opened at about $450K and has shown poor legs to only be at $1.3M three weeks later).

Again, the international is really quite impossible to determine, as Sing still has a large amount of territories to open in, and Moana still has a couple of key territories to open in as well as to flex its legs in with very recent openings, but the numbers certainly don't fit any kind of doomsday scenario that would imply Sing beating it by hundreds of millions. But I would like for you to explain why you think so, other than just "Illumination always makes a ton of money".

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Illumination always makes a ton of money. Domestic projections have Sing finishing this MLK weekend with 237 mil cume and Moana with 231. Moana lost hundreds of more screens this weekend.

Internationally, you said it yourself...Sing's got a lot more territories to open in.

[–] igfsda3 8 years ago

And sing just overtook moana.

I know moana is far superior to sing but please quit shilling.

[–] A-Rey-of-Light 8 years ago

International won't even be close

Hardly. It'll be like a $5-10 million difference if Moana performs at its absolute best potential in the remaining markets. Plus, it has had very good legs.

In the end, Sing will outgross Moana by the hundreds of millions

It boils down to North America and China. Unless the Chinese mistake it for a musical Zootopia sequel, Sing wouldn't go much futher than $60 million, and at this pace, Moana has a better chance of hitting $250 million than Sing hitting $300 million.

Galaxy's princess
Her mother, singer in rain
Unite in heaven

[–] 8 years ago

[deleted]

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

This is a bit off topic but I don't see any reason to start a new topic about it. Moana has failed to win the Best Animated Feature Award from the Hawaii film critics! The award I went to Zootopia and Kubo in a tie. In all fairness it did win the minor award of best Hawaiien themed movie but I think it's a bit of a shocker that even the Hawaiian film critics couldn't even award it!

Other than that it looks like this will be the week that Sing passes Moana, and even with the upcoming sing-a-long I don't see Moana being able to catch back up at This point domestically. Internationally it's still hard to say at this point but I'm going to go with Sing winning this one also.

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Sing is passing Moana today or tomorrow at the latest.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Sing is passing Moana today or tomorrow at the latest.

Your originally projected that Sing would pass Moana domestically two weekends ago. Then also said it last weekend. This weekend, it is actually possible, but if trends continue for both of them, it won't.

[–] Shychick52 8 years ago

I wonder if this film somehow offended them.

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

Possibly. I read a review about some of the older populations view on Moana and one thing that was brought up was that Maui being a fat doofus was offensive and they also talked about they didn't like the white-washing of their history. If you google search it you'll likely find it.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Possibly. I read a review about some of the older populations view on Moana and one thing that was brought up was that Maui being a fat doofus was offensive and they also talked about they didn't like the white-washing of their history. If you google search it you'll likely find it.

Ugh, people just get offended way too easily these days. This movie was a beautiful portrayal of the culture, and ALL of the characters were Polynesian, not just Maui. And Maui turned out to be awesome anyways. Yeah, he was a bit of a doofus sometimes, but he proved to be very physically capable, was a master wayfinder, and was critical to the success at the end of the movie.

As far as white washing...I don't even know what they're talking about. Literally every main character was voiced by a Polynesian...

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

I said nothing about the voices and I don't think you understand the definition of whitewashing: 'Whitewash' deliberately attempt to conceal unpleasant or incriminating facts about (a person or organization). Meaning that they changed details about their culture that wasn't based in reality and made it more 'Disney'.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Ah, that's a different definition than I'm used to. I always heard whitewashing being applied to white actors/actresses being cast in Asian roles (ie Tilda Swinton as the Ancient One in Doctor Strange). But do they really expect a PG Disney kids movie to accurately portray certain parts of mythology? They're offended that Disney didn't? Should Greek people be offended by the movie Hercules, because Disney made Hercules Zeus and Hera's son instead of showing Zeus coming down to Earth and essentially raping a woman to conceive Hercules? That is a really stupid thing to be offended about.

[–] Block-Busted 8 years ago

To be fair, Ancient One casting was going to be a lose-lose scenario from get-go.

Oh, and your description of whitewashing is more accurate, which is why 'Ghost in the Shell' got into a huge trouble regarding its casting choices*.

*In all honesty though, you can tell that the film is pretty much doomed already just by looking at the director and producers involved.

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 Merry Christmas! 

[–] OpinionsByLennon 8 years ago

If the numbers hold up Sing has now passed Moana domestically as of today.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

If the numbers hold up Sing has now passed Moana domestically as of today.

Very true. Granted, the numbers were pretty off (never seen them so off) the weekend after Christmas, so it hasn't necessarily passed it yet. However, unless the numbers are $4M off, then Sing will have at least pulled close enough to pass it in the next couple of days. So regardless, barring something crazy, Sing has most likely taken the domestic crown. Worldwide will be fun to watch!

[–] QueenFanUSA 8 years ago

Worldwide will be fun to watch!

Unfortunately, it won't be fun to watch...not for Moana fans like us. In fact, it will be painful.

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Unfortunately, it won't be fun to watch...not for Moana fans like us. In fact, it will be painful.

I disagree. Even if it loses, it will be a tight race.

[–] A-Rey-of-Light 8 years ago

Yep. Moana will put up a much tougher fight overseas than in the US. Unless Sing really breaks out in China or UK I can't see it passing $400 million overseas.

Galaxy's princess
Her mother, singer in rain
Unite in heaven

[–] Zaphenzo 8 years ago

Unfortunately, it won't be fun to watch...not for Moana fans like us. In fact, it will be painful.

Moana opened at $4M in South Korea, which is quite a bit higher than Sing's $3.3M. Still not getting your doomsday approach to their international earnings...