Box Office Runs Nearing Their End

I really didn't want to create another topic at this point, but none of the other wider picture threads had any activity recently, so here it is. I'm taking off my Moana glasses and looking at this with a completely unbiased eye at this point, and I hope that others are willing to do the same. I really hope to have some good box office discussion in this thread, as it's probably the last box office discussion I'll be able to have. So please, everyone, don't just post your knee-jerk, biased reaction of "Moana will definitely win!" or "Sing is unfortunately too good!", and let's just have some discussion. Looking at raw numbers, we currently stand at:

Moana: $553.3M
Sing: $487M

So, the deficit currently stands at about $66.3M.

Regions where Moana is still making decent money: Argentina, Brazil, Hong Kong, South Korea, and the USA.
This is without this past weekend's numbers included, however, so these estimates will be a little rough, but still worth looking at. Last weekend, Argentina gave Moana just under a million, so we will likely see another $2-3M in its remaining run the next couple of weekends. Brazil remained strong at $1.5M last weekend, so we could see somewhere from $4-5M in its remaining weekends. Hong Kong offered a reasonable $900k opening, so we could expect another $1M in its remaining run. South Korea gave us just over $2M last weekend, so it will likely add another $5-6M in its remaining run. Finally, it still had a $1.2M weekend this weekend in the US, so it could likely add another $2-4M in the next couple of weeks.
So, without considering Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, or Japan, Moana will still garner another $13-19M WW. So, for argument's sake, we'll look at the middle range and go with $16M.
Prediction: $569M (again, before the remaining territories)


Regions where Sing is still making decent money: France, Italy, Poland, the UK, and the USA.
Again, rough estimates not being able to include this past weekend's numbers. Last weekend, France gave a strong opening of $5.15M. It's really hard to predict how it will continue after just the opening, but it would be reasonable to assume it could continue to earn another $10-15M in the coming weekends. Italy gave about $600k last weekend, so it could earn another $1-2M in the coming weekends. Poland did about the same, so we'll give it another $1-2M as well. The UK opened powerfully with a $12.5M two-weekend opening. It will likely expand its theaters, and could add as much as $15-20M in the coming weeks. And, finally, the USA gave a strong $4M weekend still, so it could possibly add somewhere between $10-13M in the coming weeks.
So, without considering China, Russia, or Japan, Sing will still garner another $37-52M WW. So, for argument's sake, we'll look at the middle range and go with $44M.
Prediction: $531M (again, before the remaining territories)


So, ignoring the future territories that the movies will open in, Moana will conceivably lead by about $35-40M. So, the argument comes down to one comparison:
Can Sing, in the three giants of Japan, Russia, and China, outdo Moana, in Scandinavia and Japan, by more than $35-40M? I would give it a likelihood of about 65-70%. Russia and China no doubt will outdo Scandinavia. Either one by itself would most likely outdo Scandinavia. But let's look at the closest numbers we can possibly guess for these territories:
Moana and Scandinavia: Moana has been getting very similar numbers to BH6 in most territories, so assuming the same for Scandinavia, Moana would see around $10M for Scandinavia.
Sing and Russia: Recent Illumination movies have been yielding around $30M in Russia. However, they have all been summer release dates. As we've seen between The Secret Life of Pets's numbers vs Sing's, the winter release date isn't as profitable. But Sing will probably still yield pretty healthy numbers, so probably somewhere around $20M, maybe a little higher.
Sing and China: We saw a pretty steep decline from Minions number to Secret Life of Pets numbers in China. Did Minions lose some of the good will Illumination had been building in China? You would have to assume so, as the opening of Minions was double that of Secret Life of Pets. But Pets did have some great legs in China, and still ended just shy of $60M. Again, taking into account the winter release date, Sing will probably yield around $45M or so.

So, ignoring Japan, we now sit at Sing leading Moana by about $20M. So, will Japan be the game-changer that it has been predicted to be? Japan has been in love with Disney recently, with their last 3 movies having garnered at least $70M each. Illumination, on the other hand, hasn't been able to get a movie to $43M yet in Japan. So, as we have all been saying for a while, it all hinges on Japan. Can Moana capitalize on the good will in Japan and take the competition? Or will Illumination take the victory in the first head to head between Illumination and Disney (all previous movies between the two have had at least 3 months between releases, so can't be considered direct competition)? I guess we will see, but unfortunately won't be able to talk about it. Again, in my most unbiased opinion, I give Sing a 65-70% chance of taking this one. What does everyone else think? Were some of my numbers too low? Too high? PLEASE be unbiased in your opinion and give some reasons why you think my numbers are erroneous. Not just "But it's Illumination, they make money, duh" or "Psh, Moana takes this easy". I would like some real discussion, and not the same old, same old we've been having for the past couple of months. I have tried my best to be unbiased here, and hope others do the same.