As I understand it, he activated Winter Soldier to find out about his December 1991 mission where he killed Tony's parents. How did Zemo know about that? Or did he just luck into that info?
He was researching th Avengers and found the info in Hydra files that Natasha put online in "The Winter Soldier". He actually explains it at some point. To Karpov, I think (the upside down drowned guy).
Tony had no reason to go through them with a fine comb like Zemo did. Remember, he mentioned they were encrypted and hard to crack. Tony most likely didn't bother with old Hydra files, because why would he?
Tony had no reason to suspect his parent's death was anything but an accident. He also had no real reason to look into Winter Soldiers as Zemo was doing.
He had no thread to pull on that would have led him to it. And it's not like he's going to go through 70+ years of files to check. Or heck, maybe he had Friday working on that systematically but if the files were that hard to crack Friday maybe wasn't finished.
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I'm not saying he wouldn't have reason to go through the files. In fact I'd bet he was. But he didn't have motivation to make it his top priority to hack into every single file.
Zemo had a thread to pull on and he was very motivated to pull on it. Tony did not have either.
Had Tony started poking around in the files and saw something about his parents or about Stark Industries or something he may very well have found everything well before Zemo did. Though we have to consider that Zemo himself didn't find everything *just* in the files. He found enough to want to question Bucky directly but he had to find the means to do so (the red book) and then question Bucky before he knew for sure what happened with that mission. That itself led him to the video.
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He still has plenty of motivation to go through the files. He did it to SHIELD in Avengers. Prob would do it to HYDRA too.
He did it to SHIELD in Avengers because he was working with SHIELD and didn't trust Nick Fury. He knew that if he poked through their files he'd find some answers that Fury wasn't forthcoming about.
He had no reason to care about the HYDRA file dump.
No reason? NONE? The organization that had infiltrated every facet of the world... An organization that likely would've targeted Stark Industries for infiltration... I donno. I'm not saying it's a problem, I agree with hax that he prob had Jocasta program running through it or something and Zemo's human touch made a connection that somehow nobody else did. Not calling BS. Civil War is the greatest Comic Book Movie of all time. I also donno that Zemo's first contact with HYDRA is just when he gets the red book. I bet he's deeper in than anybody knows.
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Stark's impulsive nature leads him to care about what's going on RIGHT NOW more than anything else. The only time we've ever seen him do research into the past is when Fury dumps Howard's Big Box of Rainy Day Fun on his doorstep. Other than that, he's concerned with what's happening right now and what it means for what he will do next.
Finding out what SHIELD was up to directly related to what was happening at that moment: SHIELD recruiting a bunch of heroes to recover the Tesseract from Loki.
Stark has no reason or desire to personally look into the HYDRA files. Even having Friday search the files doesn't make a lot of sense: what kind of hits are we looking for in an organization that was founded by Howard Stark, whose name will likely be all over everything.
Hmmm, I donno man. I mean we see HYDRA is still active after AoU in the events of Ant-Man, but perhaps Stark is unaware. I still think he'd want to investigate all of that material and have his system run through it. It'd just seem like an oversight not to put a system on it when you have the resources. It's not a dealbreaker by any means, I would explain away the fact that Zemo found something that nobody else did pretty simply. He didn't. BUT he was the only one able to take that info and go further, using his particular set of skills, to interrogate the HYDRA dude, find the notebook, etc. Basically ZEMO was the only one devoted enough to pull on the threads, not just detect them.
Stark has no reason or desire to personally look into the HYDRA files. Even having Friday search the files doesn't make a lot of sense: what kind of hits are we looking for in an organization that was founded by Howard Stark, whose name will likely be all over everything.
Wait what?
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I think Stark would absolutely have Friday systematically working through the files and cataloging them for the future ("buy it, store it") but I don't think he'd be actively looking himself.
And yeah, it's not like Friday would ping him every time Howard's name came up but I assume Friday would be able to determine if something regarding Howard was new and relevant. By that I mean, if Friday got to the reports about how Hydra orchestrated the Stark's death then Friday is definitely going to tell Tony. That's assuming there's anything in there that is that specific. We don't really know (unless I'm forgetting something) that Zemo found out Bucky killed the Starks from the leaked files. We just know he found something in there and followed that lead to other places - potentially outside the leaked intel. Friday's not going to hunt down ex Hydra people and search their houses and torture them. Friday's also not going to trigger Bucky to get his mission report.
My assumption/memory (and I haven't watched the film in a while) is something like this:
Zemo found something in the files linking Captain America to Bucky. He also knows or discovers that Bucky is the Winter Soldier. Zemo then finds out more about the WS program (maybe in the files, maybe outside). Zemo finds out that this one mission was significant. Maybe not specifics but enough redacted lines or attention to it that he knows it's worth looking into. He can't seem to get the info anywhere so decides he'll go to the source: Bucky. Or maybe he does piece it together but it's still thin so he needs to confirm it with Bucky. Part of the mission report includes where the "proof" was kept. This assumes that Bucky was instructed to keep the tapes or that he had a general order that if he's ever recorded to keep the tape and destroy all known copies or kill anyone that saw it live. This would make sense since they couldn't be 100% sure Bucky erased all traces so it would be good to know what could be out there. Zemo ultimately wants to show Tony the video so Tony will want Bucky dead.
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He knows the date Howard died. All he'd have to find was something about Hydra utilising the Winter Soldier for that particular date and for a mission. It's easy to put the two together and get the probably answer. But he still needed proof, hence the journey to find it.
And I agree that Tony might have been having his system go through files. But since he's not looking into his parents'deaths, there's no reason for him to make specific requests to the system. This is a Shield/Hydra dump. That's a ton of information.
Once one had a lead to follow, it would be easier. But not having any lead, I don't think it's as simple as you think it might.
Plus, at the same time, Tony's having relationship troubles with Pepper... because he can't stop being Ironman, and he's been working on the BARF system.
So, obviously he's pretty busy:
1-He's busy being Ironman 2-He's struggling with his relationship with Pepper 3-He's creating and working in the BARF system
That's a lot to keep him busy. The dump is being categorized, I'm sure but Tony's got his plate pretty full.
Good news is, he's got more time on his hands to work on that data dump now.
I assume Friday would be able to determine if something regarding Howard was new and relevant.
How?
Everything in these files would be new to Tony. He knew virtually nothing about his father's ties to SHIELD.
There's really no reason for Stark to be combing through the files. None at all. The Avengers used Fury, Cap and Natasha to lead them to former SHIELD bases where HYDRA had gone into hiding, so he didn't need to comb through the files for that purpose.
Apart from a vague "there must be something in there that concerns him," I have yet to see an argument that supports the idea that Tony Stark, Mr. Impulsive himself, would have any interest in combing through dead files, even electronically.
Stark spent most of IM2 learning about his father's work which would have been mostly if not all with SHIELD.
I agree Tony doesn't need to comb through the files but he's smart enough to know that the data might be useful some day so I'm pretty sure he'd have had Friday start cataloging it all.
But yes, he himself would not be combing through unless Friday found something that wasn't already something Tony either knew or had on file already. i.e. if there was some clue that Hydra was involved in his parent's accident or that SHIELD had investigated it and at one time believed something to have been behind it. Heck, SHIELD may have known it wasn't an accident and covered it up themselves to keep other government bodies out of it.
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Stark spent ten minutes of Iron Man 2 learning about his father's work which was directly related to developing the Arc reactor and had nothing to do with SHIELD. He didn't even know Howard was associated with SHIELD until Fury showed up with Howard's Big Box of Rainy Day Fun.
Even what he learned about the relationship with Anton Vanko had nothing to do with SHIELD.
As for having Friday catalog the data...why?
He has seriously shown very little interest in old files apart from what his father did to develop the Arc reactor, and that happened because he was about to die and Fury pushed the files on him. He doesn't spend time looking at the past. It's simply not what he does.
He also knows that literally thousands of other agencies are working their way through that data. If something's important enough to warrant his attention, it will come to his attention.
Though I'm sure he hopes it doesn't come to his attention the way the deaths of his parents did.
Shield was founded by Howard Stark, Peggy Carter, and the character played by Tommy Lee Jones in CATFA. Since Shield and Hydra were one, that's where his comment his coming from. The Hydra dump was essentially the Shield/Hydra dump, when you think about. Howard's 'fingerprints' would have been over a lot of data up till the early nineties.
HYDRA's files didn't hold ALL the answers. The only thing Zemo finds is a HYDRA kill mission dated 16 Dec 1991. It strikes him as something that should be investigated because that is the day Howard Stark died. Naturally, Zemo sets about trying to find out the details of the mission to confirm his suspicions.
Get busy livin' or get busy dyin'... ...That's god damn right.
He been studying the Avengers personally, and decrypting files since AOU. I don't think he just clicked on a random one and, voilĂ .
He probably find the info that Zola showed Cap, about Hydra killing Howard Stark, and there must have been a date. Since it's already known that Bucky is James Buchanan Barnes, Steve's best friend, Zemo realizes that he has his link. Now he needs proof. Continued looking leads to the handler and the red book.
And Tony has no reason to be intently looking. He'd accepted his parents' deaths as an accident years ago. I'm sure people were slowly decrypting the files but it's probably just random government people sorting and filing with little cohesion. It would probably have popped up on someone's radar, eventually.
The museum revealed that Bucky was a team mate of Steve's.
Once Zemo found out Bucky was a winter soldier all he needed to do was activate Bucky.
Everything else was easy.
Pose as Bucky to be a terrorist, commit a terrible crime and just when the Avengers find out it was a scam, activate Bucky to show he's a one man wrecking machine.
I think the only reason Zemo's plan gets confused so much is because it's not all one plan. His attempt at getting the Mission Report from the HYDRA guy fails, so he moves on to the next thing.
And some people seem to think that every last thing that happened in the film was exactly what Zemo expected or caused to happen.
In some parts of the film he's a dog chasing cars and has no specific plan. He's trying to stir s**t up more than anything. He finds a nerve and exposes it sure, but it's not like he's literally writing the script.
To me it's much more realistic that way. If Tony hadn't of followed Cap/Bucky then Zemo would have probably tried to trap them there then send the video to Tony. Or broadcast it or something.
Any questions that start with "How did Zemo know that so-and-so would..." are pretty much "he didn't".
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More importantly, how does one get even close to the UN building while wearing the mask of a most wanted criminal and a giant bomb in the back of the van.
I'm the thing that keeps you up at night, the evil that haunts every dark corner of your mind
I think the best place to find the many many steps that all had to happen perfectly are in the "Everything Wrong With Captain America: Civil War" on youtube. At one point in the video, he mentions Zemo's plan, and then it scrolls on the screen. If you pause it and read enough times to get all the way through it, you'll see how many steps there are and how they all have to happen perfectly, or Zemo doesn't get the actual desired result.
The rest of the video is great, and pretty much all of their videos are well done. I'm not involved with EWW, just a fan.
Zemo didn't cause every event in the film to happen nor was everything in the film a pre-meditated plan.
He made adjustments as parts played out.
I mean it's fine to pretend and make jokes etc. but it's like saying "How did they know the shark would try to bite the tank so they could blow it up?" in Jaws.
Stuff happened, Zemo stirred things up and continued to work to try and get Steve and Tony at each other's throats.
Reading my signature constitutes admission that I am correct. (Too late)
That's silly. Zemo didn't start out with all his steps lined up to get to Siberia. He made one step, then made a decision that went to the next step. How each step worked out helped him make a decision to get to the next step. It wasn't an all laid out plan from the start.