$10 a square, house takes 5%, over/under is "makes Battlefield Earth's gross look like Avatar's gross by comparison."
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...judging by the trailer, it doesn't look promising. Hopefully, they at least decided to trim John Galt's speech significantly. If they didn't, then even some of the most devoted Ayn Rand's fans may find themselves taking a nap.
Which is kind of unfortunate since I agree with some of what Ayn Rand wrote. Not necessarily the politics, but on the strength of an individual's mind and the value of work.
Yes, I've read that they did trim Galt's speech significantly and even altered some of the wording to de-emphasize the Objectivist "selfishness" that is often sited by the philosophy's detractors.
shareSince you use the word "tank" and not "suck", I''ll assume you're addressing the financial success of this movie.
Atlas Shrugged had a budget of around $20M with a box office take of less than $5M. Part II had a budget of $10M and a box office take of less than $4M. Part III has a budget of only $5M. Given the low budget and the fact that this is the trilogy's conclusion, they've actually got a shot of breaking even on this one. Probably not from box office alone though.
However, this series will generate a bit more return when the DVD box set hits the market. There's not a lot of Ojectivist movies available, so most hardcore Rand fans will probably want to own a set. Also, remember, the book alone has sold over $7M copies, so don't underestimate that fanbase. As you can tell by this messageboard, many of them can be quite "driven." :)
Overall, I predict this movie will pull in under 4.5M in total box office. Combined with dvd sales, this last installment will be profitable. The series as a whole, however, will probably miss it's margin, but not by much ($5M?). Compare this with my analysis of the forthcoming Jupiter Ascending fiasco and you'll see why Aglialoro will be seen as a hero and the Wachowskis (whom I love dearly) will be viewed as a goat. Of course, these are only predictions and Nostradamus is dead.
But when you look at it as a serial, they've spent $35 million so far and only racked up $8 million as a result. Even The Fountainhead failed to break even and that had an A-lister in it.
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Given how low DVD sales were from the second volume, I wouldn't count on them as a significant source of income from this volume, nor will cable pay much for it given the likelihood of box office doom. As far as book sales are concerned, the book was taught to captive audiences all over and is over 50 years old, its biggest boost in sales outside of academia coming when some popular neo-con picks bits and pieces of Rand's philosophy to sell. They always drop the ball when giving a fuller picture because that is a harder initial sale but I'm pretty sure most people in these threads are aware of this.
But lets just say that you're right and the movie rakes in a total of $4.5 million at the box office during this limited run (which won't get larger if history teaches us anything). That is what consumers are paying to the theaters, the same theaters that had to be paid to show the last installment rather than the usual process where the theater takes a growing cut of the till the longer the movie is out. I suspect the arrangement for this volume was similar to the last given the particulars and that means it would have to make a heck of a lot more money to break even than the production costs which is not going to happen in my opinion.
I just checked Boxofficemojo to see what the numbers were for Friday.
This movie didn't even rank.
According to Deadline Hollywood, it made $177,000 last night, and is now estimated to make $530,000 for the weekend.
sharehttp://www.the-numbers.com/weekend-box-office-chart
$355,252 for the full weekend. It opened below the Mendoza Line and its internal multiplier was terrible. This is a full on bomb. It won't reach $1 million in total compared to a $5 million production budget. It likely won't even pay for its P&A budget.